Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Mar 15 07:01:22 EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.1 89.6 84.7 79.8 73.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .559 88.8 73.2 34.18510 33.07250 67.25760 Red Sox 0 0 .544 86.3 75.7 23.76950 32.58020 56.34970 Orioles 0 0 .535 84.9 77.1 19.11680 30.82340 49.94020 Blue Jays 0 0 .525 83.0 79.0 13.97660 27.40350 41.38010 Rays 0 0 .509 80.4 81.6 8.95200 21.74360 30.69560
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.5 84.4 78.0 71.5 62.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 0 0 .543 87.9 74.1 50.94080 16.10450 67.04530 Royals 0 0 .521 84.2 77.8 31.78030 18.47350 50.25380 Twins 0 0 .473 75.9 86.1 8.52220 8.89460 17.41680 Guardians 0 0 .472 75.6 86.4 7.96770 8.57760 16.54530 White Sox 0 0 .410 64.9 97.1 .78900 .97130 1.76030
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.8 88.5 81.5 74.4 65.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .599 96.7 65.3 71.32940 19.35160 90.68100 Astros 0 0 .530 85.0 77.0 14.87410 35.91600 50.79010 Rangers 0 0 .522 83.1 78.9 10.92630 31.28860 42.21490 Athletics 0 0 .476 75.3 86.7 2.42080 11.80300 14.22380 Angels 0 0 .437 68.4 93.6 .44940 2.99610 3.44550 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.7 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.5 87.9 81.7 74.8 66.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 0 0 .559 90.0 72.0 45.05750 31.26980 76.32730 Phillies 0 0 .541 87.0 75.0 30.02320 34.74330 64.76650 Braves 0 0 .526 84.3 77.7 20.27000 32.68700 52.95700 Marlins 0 0 .464 74.0 88.0 3.10880 10.86180 13.97060 Nationals 0 0 .446 70.8 91.2 1.54050 6.19170 7.73220
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.4 85.6 79.9 74.3 66.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .550 89.1 72.9 52.62860 21.25690 73.88550 Brewers 0 0 .517 83.2 78.8 23.59500 24.73570 48.33070 Pirates 0 0 .494 79.2 82.8 12.55500 18.50490 31.05990 Reds 0 0 .480 76.9 85.1 8.28390 14.18700 22.47090 Cardinals 0 0 .449 71.6 90.4 2.93750 6.37260 9.31010
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 87.4 80.1 73.1 61.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .617 100.5 61.5 86.09940 10.73000 96.82940 Diamondbacks 0 0 .511 82.1 79.9 6.51170 35.84510 42.35680 Giants 0 0 .494 79.2 82.8 3.83410 26.52520 30.35930 Padres 0 0 .493 78.8 83.2 3.49580 25.00630 28.50210 Rockies 0 0 .398 62.7 99.3 .05900 1.08270 1.14170 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.8 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
