Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri Jul 31 08:01:43 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.0 84.5 81.5 78.7 74.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           57   44   .514   87.8   74.2   66.66153   15.85752   82.51905
Blue Jays         52   51   .532   83.3   78.7   19.27616   23.79225   43.06841
Orioles           51   50   .512   81.4   80.6    9.02980   17.28995   26.31975
Rays              51   52   .500   79.6   82.4    4.04011    9.58704   13.62715
Red Sox           45   58   .538   76.5   85.5     .99241    2.45431    3.44672

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.5 84.7 81.4 78.6 75.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            61   40   .503   91.1   70.9   87.27217    8.31294   95.58511
Twins             53   48   .495   82.4   79.6    6.35168   28.24500   34.59668
Tigers            50   52   .512   80.3   81.7    3.13983   14.88558   18.02542
White Sox         49   51   .499   79.9   82.1    2.48801   13.37708   15.86509
Indians           47   54   .510   77.6   84.4     .74832    5.56152    6.30984

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.3 84.5 79.7 75.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            58   45   .536   89.6   72.4   78.39221   13.99785   92.39005
Angels            55   46   .496   84.4   77.6   18.52898   35.91668   54.44566
Rangers           49   52   .490   79.0   83.0    2.60853    8.66037   11.26889
Mariners          46   57   .490   74.6   87.4     .19679     .97101    1.16780
Athletics         45   58   .510   74.8   87.2     .27350    1.09089    1.36439

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  86.9
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  84.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.2 82.3 75.5 70.6 63.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         54   46   .554   89.9   72.1   88.83129    3.23155   92.06284
Mets              52   50   .493   82.3   79.7   10.79621   11.64195   22.43816
Braves            46   56   .456   74.5   87.5     .30518     .41021     .71538
Marlins           42   60   .478   71.6   90.4     .06723     .04186     .10909
Phillies          39   64   .412   63.8   98.2     .00010     .00010     .00020

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.5 90.9 85.0 76.6 71.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         65   37   .525   96.9   65.1   82.71956   16.88773   99.60728
Pirates           59   42   .522   90.8   71.2   15.46326   75.07607   90.53932
Cubs              54   47   .509   85.5   76.5    1.81306   50.28453   52.09759
Reds              46   54   .474   75.2   86.8     .00355     .92577     .92932
Brewers           44   59   .490   73.3   88.7     .00058     .22893     .22950

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.1 84.8 79.9 76.3 71.9
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           57   45   .549   90.6   71.4   82.47853    8.92667   91.40520
Giants            56   45   .475   84.6   77.4   15.49778   26.72599   42.22377
Diamondbacks      49   51   .477   78.4   83.6    1.29406    3.58831    4.88237
Padres            49   53   .454   77.2   84.8     .66090    1.78284    2.44374
Rockies           43   57   .486   73.2   88.8     .06873     .24749     .31622

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.