Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Sep 28 08:01:03 EDT 2016
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.5 89.7 87.2 83.6 67.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 92 65 .524 94.5 67.5 99.43260 .56740 100.00000 Blue Jays 87 70 .562 89.7 72.3 .56740 97.10438 97.67178 Orioles 85 72 .517 87.3 74.7 .00000 55.36195 55.36194 Yankees 81 76 .499 83.6 78.4 .00000 .33509 .33509 Rays 65 92 .507 67.3 94.7 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.5 86.7 82.5 78.7 58.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 91 66 .540 93.5 68.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Tigers 84 73 .515 86.7 75.3 .00000 33.65923 33.65923 Royals 80 77 .493 82.5 79.5 .00000 .00076 .00076 White Sox 76 81 .499 78.7 83.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 56 101 .503 58.3 103.7 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.2 86.1 84.7 73.0 69.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 93 65 .512 95.2 66.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mariners 83 74 .549 85.8 76.2 .00000 10.14334 10.14334 Astros 83 75 .564 85.1 76.9 .00000 2.82786 2.82786 Angels 71 87 .506 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 67 90 .504 69.1 92.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.9 86.2 79.8 72.2 66.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 92 65 .517 94.9 67.1 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mets 84 74 .525 86.2 75.8 .00000 87.55547 87.55547 Marlins 78 79 .496 79.8 81.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 70 87 .418 72.2 89.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 64 92 .409 66.4 94.6 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 103.7 84.8 79.4 72.8 68.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 101 56 .544 103.7 58.3 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cardinals 82 75 .496 84.8 77.2 .00000 37.03952 37.03952 Pirates 77 80 .509 79.4 82.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 71 87 .440 72.8 89.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 66 91 .426 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 92.6 85.7 75.4 69.4 67.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 90 67 .554 92.6 69.4 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Giants 83 74 .515 85.7 76.3 .00000 75.40502 75.40502 Rockies 73 84 .443 75.4 86.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 67 90 .449 69.2 92.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 65 92 .458 67.5 94.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 86.6 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
