Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Jul 28 07:27:44 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  88.9 85.4 82.8 80.3 77.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           58   46   .510   86.7   75.3   49.58837   16.84041   66.42877
Blue Jays         56   50   .535   84.6   77.4   26.60801   18.86990   45.47790
Yankees           54   50   .509   81.9   80.1   10.64529   10.81134   21.45663
Rays              51   54   .562   81.9   80.1   10.10777   10.82700   20.93476
Red Sox           48   57   .565   79.2   82.8    3.05057    4.38899    7.43956

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.3 83.5 80.3 77.3 73.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            57   45   .531   88.8   73.2   81.78781    4.81819   86.60600
Royals            53   51   .501   81.6   80.4    9.46870    9.96738   19.43607
Indians           52   53   .494   80.4   81.6    5.87767    6.52559   12.40326
White Sox         51   55   .495   78.1   83.9    2.37564    2.42681    4.80245
Twins             47   57   .486   74.7   87.3     .49019     .33471     .82490

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.8 91.2 81.9 71.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         65   39   .554   97.2   64.8   81.41013   18.40455   99.81468
Angels            63   41   .521   91.7   70.3   18.41513   76.66130   95.07644
Mariners          54   51   .512   82.0   80.0     .17473   19.11390   19.28863
Astros            42   63   .490   69.2   92.8     .00000     .00580     .00580
Rangers           41   64   .499   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00413     .00413

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.9 85.0 80.1 76.3 70.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         57   45   .532   90.2   71.8   78.86411   12.69869   91.56280
Braves            57   48   .490   85.0   77.0   18.55335   34.23348   52.78683
Marlins           51   53   .475   78.8   83.2    1.65307    5.51702    7.17008
Mets              50   55   .469   77.6   84.4     .91143    2.82947    3.74090
Phillies          46   59   .449   71.6   90.4     .01805     .06736     .08541

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.2 86.5 83.3 78.9 68.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           59   47   .513   87.9   74.1   48.29333   29.81022   78.10355
Cardinals         56   48   .514   86.6   75.4   33.77963   33.91902   67.69865
Pirates           55   49   .502   84.3   77.7   15.26942   29.50184   44.77126
Reds              52   52   .476   80.0   82.0    2.65676    8.98068   11.63744
Cubs              42   61   .452   68.6   93.4     .00088     .00912     .01000

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.3 84.2 76.2 72.7 69.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           59   47   .528   89.7   72.3   80.33501   11.18060   91.51561
Giants            57   48   .484   84.7   77.3   19.48926   30.77684   50.26610
Padres            46   58   .456   72.7   89.3     .07343     .17346     .24688
Diamondbacks      45   60   .484   72.9   89.1     .05508     .17173     .22682
Rockies           43   61   .497   72.6   89.4     .04723     .13046     .17769

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  87.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.