Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri Jun 22 08:03:13 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  105.5 99.5 78.8 72.6 56.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           50   22   .572  102.0   60.0   44.43012   55.08473   99.51485
Red Sox           50   26   .620  103.0   59.0   55.56932   44.16493   99.73425
Blue Jays         34   40   .491   76.6   85.4     .00057     .88343     .88400
Rays              34   40   .463   74.9   87.1     .00000     .34465     .34464
Orioles           21   52   .421   56.8  105.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.4 83.3 72.4 61.5 55.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           40   33   .602   95.2   66.8   94.52403    1.36952   95.89355
Tigers            36   39   .432   72.5   89.5     .06493     .08932     .15425
Twins             33   38   .538   83.2   78.8    5.41093    7.70530   13.11624
White Sox         24   49   .390   57.9  104.1     .00010     .00000     .00010
Royals            22   52   .433   59.2  102.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  104.1 91.2 85.1 79.1 72.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            50   26   .622  104.0   58.0   96.47150    3.27578   99.74728
Mariners          46   29   .517   89.9   72.1    2.94073   60.50715   63.44789
Angels            40   35   .534   85.5   76.5     .56857   23.29901   23.86758
Athletics         38   36   .480   78.9   83.1     .01870    2.96168    2.98038
Rangers           32   44   .489   73.7   88.3     .00050     .31449     .31499

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  99.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  91.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.6 91.1 83.7 73.0 58.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            43   30   .551   93.1   68.9   43.60736   42.26813   85.87548
Nationals         40   33   .589   93.9   68.1   52.62101   36.30780   88.92881
Phillies          39   33   .493   84.1   77.9    3.74226   18.11644   21.85869
Mets              31   41   .460   73.2   88.8     .02898     .27645     .30542
Marlins           29   46   .348   58.6  103.4     .00040     .00000     .00040

Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.0 89.6 84.7 78.6 64.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           44   30   .507   88.7   73.3   17.87670   40.67183   58.54853
Cubs              42   30   .573   94.9   67.1   74.09305   17.93648   92.02953
Cardinals         38   35   .540   85.4   76.6    7.09067   23.92692   31.01758
Pirates           36   38   .501   79.8   82.2     .93928    5.17244    6.11173
Reds              29   45   .414   64.9   97.1     .00030     .00157     .00187

Average wins by position in NL West:  89.5 84.6 80.8 76.4 69.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Diamondbacks      41   33   .468   82.6   79.4   18.01254    4.85382   22.86636
Dodgers           38   35   .557   87.5   74.5   58.69778    4.69329   63.39107
Giants            38   38   .457   78.0   84.0    4.19901    1.29817    5.49718
Rockies           37   38   .522   82.5   79.5   18.97715    4.45940   23.43654
Padres            34   43   .419   69.6   92.4     .11353     .01727     .13080

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  92.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.