Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Jul 28 07:27:44 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 88.9 85.4 82.8 80.3 77.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Orioles 58 46 .510 86.7 75.3 49.58837 16.84041 66.42877 Blue Jays 56 50 .535 84.6 77.4 26.60801 18.86990 45.47790 Yankees 54 50 .509 81.9 80.1 10.64529 10.81134 21.45663 Rays 51 54 .562 81.9 80.1 10.10777 10.82700 20.93476 Red Sox 48 57 .565 79.2 82.8 3.05057 4.38899 7.43956
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.3 83.5 80.3 77.3 73.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 57 45 .531 88.8 73.2 81.78781 4.81819 86.60600 Royals 53 51 .501 81.6 80.4 9.46870 9.96738 19.43607 Indians 52 53 .494 80.4 81.6 5.87767 6.52559 12.40326 White Sox 51 55 .495 78.1 83.9 2.37564 2.42681 4.80245 Twins 47 57 .486 74.7 87.3 .49019 .33471 .82490
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.8 91.2 81.9 71.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 65 39 .554 97.2 64.8 81.41013 18.40455 99.81468 Angels 63 41 .521 91.7 70.3 18.41513 76.66130 95.07644 Mariners 54 51 .512 82.0 80.0 .17473 19.11390 19.28863 Astros 42 63 .490 69.2 92.8 .00000 .00580 .00580 Rangers 41 64 .499 68.8 93.2 .00000 .00413 .00413 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 85.0 80.1 76.3 70.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 57 45 .532 90.2 71.8 78.86411 12.69869 91.56280 Braves 57 48 .490 85.0 77.0 18.55335 34.23348 52.78683 Marlins 51 53 .475 78.8 83.2 1.65307 5.51702 7.17008 Mets 50 55 .469 77.6 84.4 .91143 2.82947 3.74090 Phillies 46 59 .449 71.6 90.4 .01805 .06736 .08541
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.2 86.5 83.3 78.9 68.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 59 47 .513 87.9 74.1 48.29333 29.81022 78.10355 Cardinals 56 48 .514 86.6 75.4 33.77963 33.91902 67.69865 Pirates 55 49 .502 84.3 77.7 15.26942 29.50184 44.77126 Reds 52 52 .476 80.0 82.0 2.65676 8.98068 11.63744 Cubs 42 61 .452 68.6 93.4 .00088 .00912 .01000
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.3 84.2 76.2 72.7 69.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 59 47 .528 89.7 72.3 80.33501 11.18060 91.51561 Giants 57 48 .484 84.7 77.3 19.48926 30.77684 50.26610 Padres 46 58 .456 72.7 89.3 .07343 .17346 .24688 Diamondbacks 45 60 .484 72.9 89.1 .05508 .17173 .22682 Rockies 43 61 .497 72.6 89.4 .04723 .13046 .17769 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 87.8 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 85.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
