Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections). And the ELO version of this report, based on an ELO rating scheme.
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu May 17 07:28:10 EDT 2012
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.1 89.8 85.5 80.7 74.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 24 14 .533 89.2 72.8 31.07006 40.63781 71.70786 Orioles 24 14 .441 77.2 84.8 1.52178 8.55495 10.07673 Yankees 20 17 .567 89.8 72.2 35.69631 38.98158 74.67789 Blue Jays 20 18 .512 81.4 80.6 5.55168 20.07518 25.62686 Red Sox 17 20 .578 88.1 73.9 26.16017 39.98059 66.14075
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.3 82.9 77.3 71.0 64.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 21 16 .485 81.9 80.1 22.05203 11.34562 33.39765 Tigers 18 19 .556 88.3 73.7 67.34016 7.78942 75.12958 White Sox 17 21 .485 78.3 83.7 9.19049 6.91049 16.10098 Royals 15 21 .431 69.9 92.1 .95636 .62006 1.57642 Twins 11 26 .448 67.3 94.7 .46096 .20674 .66770
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.7 82.2 74.7 67.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 24 14 .595 99.6 62.4 97.17706 1.73590 98.91296 Athletics 19 19 .458 74.5 87.5 .44398 4.21581 4.65979 Angels 17 21 .515 80.4 81.6 2.32003 18.23674 20.55676 Mariners 16 23 .435 69.3 92.7 .05894 .70912 .76806 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.3 89.3 85.4 81.3 75.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 23 14 .514 85.8 77.2 17.97610 21.79850 39.77460 Braves 23 15 .528 86.9 75.1 24.87770 24.82808 49.70578 Marlins 20 17 .549 87.1 75.9 23.69180 24.39920 48.09100 Mets 20 17 .469 77.1 84.9 1.97215 5.06330 7.03545 Phillies 19 19 .567 88.2 73.8 31.48225 26.01782 57.50007
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.4 88.1 82.4 75.7 69.1 61.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 22 15 .540 91.4 70.6 55.17423 21.77173 76.94595 Reds 19 17 .533 88.2 73.8 31.53830 27.53346 59.07176 Pirates 17 20 .448 75.1 86.9 1.18990 2.53685 3.72675 Brewers 16 21 .524 83.6 78.4 11.91832 18.58195 30.50026 Astros 16 21 .369 62.5 99.5 .00799 .01195 .01994 Cubs 15 22 .428 69.9 92.1 .17126 .43325 .60451
Average wins by position in NL West: 89.7 84.6 80.6 76.3 68.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 24 13 .478 83.0 79.0 26.78535 7.07840 33.86375 Giants 18 19 .519 84.3 77.7 34.50482 7.68331 42.18813 Diamondbacks 16 22 .517 81.5 80.5 19.76761 6.04556 25.81317 Rockies 15 21 .528 81.1 80.9 18.05437 5.93919 23.99356 Padres 14 24 .451 70.2 91.8 .88785 .27745 1.16531 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
