Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Jul 17 08:03:15 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 89.6 85.2 81.9 78.2 74.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 52 41 .532 87.8 74.2 58.38177 22.90909 81.29086 Rays 49 44 .519 83.3 78.7 17.00479 27.03669 44.04148 Yankees 47 43 .532 83.9 78.1 21.47882 28.38853 49.86734 Orioles 42 49 .511 77.1 84.9 1.51955 5.30056 6.82011 Blue Jays 42 49 .509 76.9 85.1 1.61507 4.50425 6.11933
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.7 83.0 78.7 74.6 68.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 47 43 .562 87.9 74.1 75.77215 9.19104 84.96320 Twins 46 45 .512 82.3 79.7 17.93027 19.73853 37.66879 Royals 45 45 .453 77.0 85.0 3.00121 4.04496 7.04617 Tigers 41 49 .507 77.2 84.8 3.23918 4.54991 7.78909 White Sox 38 52 .444 69.1 92.9 .05720 .05798 .11518
Average wins by position in AL west: 104.2 85.4 80.5 76.8 72.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 62 30 .611 104.2 57.8 99.87570 .12329 99.99899 Mariners 46 47 .572 84.2 77.8 .11570 52.47697 52.59267 Angels 46 49 .476 76.0 86.0 .00060 3.47628 3.47688 Rangers 45 46 .499 79.2 82.8 .00753 14.12575 14.13328 Athletics 42 50 .506 76.1 85.9 .00047 4.07616 4.07663 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 87.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 84.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.5 80.3 76.3 72.5 64.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 55 36 .531 93.5 67.5 98.78565 .41470 99.20035 Braves 45 45 .420 75.3 86.7 .17410 1.51169 1.68579 Mets 41 48 .498 77.4 83.6 .64395 4.50700 5.15095 Marlins 41 49 .462 76.1 85.9 .39630 2.02477 2.42107 Phillies 30 60 .468 65.1 96.9 .00000 .00161 .00161
Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.2 84.9 81.0 76.5 70.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 52 42 .502 85.9 76.1 40.96862 18.28544 59.25406 Cubs 46 45 .548 86.4 75.6 46.13235 16.99213 63.12447 Cardinals 44 47 .512 81.4 80.6 10.83579 10.42069 21.25648 Pirates 44 48 .465 77.0 85.0 1.96060 2.32767 4.28827 Reds 39 52 .448 71.2 90.8 .10265 .13448 .23713
Average wins by position in NL West: 105.2 90.1 84.8 71.4 66.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 64 29 .570 105.1 56.9 99.35405 .64473 99.99878 Diamondbacks 53 39 .501 88.1 73.9 .45240 76.03635 76.48875 Rockies 53 41 .472 86.8 75.2 .19355 66.63705 66.83060 Padres 40 51 .407 69.1 92.9 .00000 .04073 .04073 Giants 35 58 .473 68.5 93.5 .00000 .02096 .02096 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
