Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Aug 21 07:27:36 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.8 84.4 81.3 78.4 73.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           73   52   .502   91.8   70.2   95.55333    1.39264   96.94598
Blue Jays         65   62   .509   82.9   79.1    2.76245    7.36998   10.13243
Yankees           63   61   .486   81.2   80.8    1.32385    3.10894    4.43279
Rays              61   65   .522   79.5   82.5     .35738     .87176    1.22915
Red Sox           56   70   .522   74.4   87.6     .00298     .01091     .01390

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.4 86.9 82.1 76.6 71.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            70   56   .498   88.1   73.9   42.46920   25.95611   68.42532
Tigers            68   56   .540   88.8   73.2   54.37917   21.40426   75.78343
Indians           64   61   .493   82.2   79.8    3.11518    4.76710    7.88229
White Sox         59   68   .504   76.3   85.7     .03562     .06450     .10011
Twins             55   70   .478   72.5   89.5     .00083     .00163     .00246

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.8 92.0 85.9 71.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            75   50   .516   93.7   68.3   48.20243   50.10420   98.30663
Athletics         74   52   .548   93.9   68.1   50.68118   47.89150   98.57268
Mariners          68   58   .518   86.1   75.9    1.11638   37.05637   38.17276
Astros            54   73   .490   70.9   91.1     .00000     .00008     .00008
Rangers           49   77   .467   65.5   96.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  92.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 84.3 80.1 76.0 71.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         72   53   .547   92.6   69.4   96.69567    2.52971   99.22537
Braves            66   61   .499   83.8   78.2    2.90315   34.84227   37.74542
Marlins           63   63   .489   80.2   81.8     .39128    6.71882    7.11010
Mets              60   68   .475   76.2   85.8     .00990     .37753     .38743
Phillies          56   71   .447   71.3   90.7     .00000     .00361     .00361

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.7 87.1 82.6 77.7 70.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           71   56   .523   89.5   72.5   60.53653   33.08852   93.62505
Cardinals         69   57   .522   88.0   74.0   36.51488   50.20524   86.72012
Pirates           65   62   .506   82.6   79.4    2.83715   21.77970   24.61685
Reds              61   66   .483   78.0   84.0     .11113    1.86613    1.97726
Cubs              54   71   .477   71.0   90.0     .00030     .00390     .00420

Average wins by position in NL West:  89.8 84.1 76.8 70.5 66.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           71   57   .526   89.5   72.5   84.50290   10.75067   95.25357
Giants            66   58   .496   84.3   76.7   15.35170   37.14020   52.49190
Padres            59   66   .464   76.8   85.2     .14535     .69363     .83898
Diamondbacks      53   74   .451   68.9   93.1     .00005     .00003     .00008
Rockies           50   76   .504   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00005     .00005

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  87.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.