Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Apr 19 07:22:30 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.9 89.2 84.9 80.6 74.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           10    7   .544   85.6   76.4   20.45826   26.11797   46.57623
Blue Jays          9    8   .523   81.3   80.7    8.85478   16.67479   25.52957
Orioles            8    7   .531   82.7   79.3   12.07114   20.01876   32.08990
Rays               8    9   .561   86.1   75.9   22.73018   26.28970   49.01987
Red Sox            7   10   .583   88.9   73.1   35.88564   27.63868   63.52432

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.6 84.4 79.5 74.5 67.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals             8    7   .493   78.5   83.5   11.37818    7.06714   18.44533
Twins              8    8   .449   71.3   90.7    2.21406    1.42431    3.63837
White Sox          8    9   .505   79.9   82.1   14.68263    8.67367   23.35630
Tigers             7    6   .551   88.4   73.6   57.23009    9.36732   66.59741
Indians            7    9   .508   79.8   82.2   14.49503    8.60324   23.09828

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.2 85.6 80.2 74.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         11    5   .525   86.5   75.5   39.34527   15.03833   54.38361
Rangers           10    7   .527   85.3   76.7   33.08302   15.03970   48.12272
Angels             8    8   .525   83.1   78.9   22.95976   13.64244   36.60220
Mariners           7    9   .469   74.1   87.9    3.40071    3.32086    6.72157
Astros             5   12   .462   69.9   92.1    1.21124    1.08307    2.29431

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.5

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.5 86.6 80.0 74.5 68.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            11    5   .506   86.6   75.4   28.66189   29.44407   58.10596
Nationals         10    7   .548   91.8   70.2   62.31237   19.63189   81.94426
Mets               8    8   .453   75.2   86.8    3.03925    6.85810    9.89735
Phillies           7    9   .462   75.0   87.0    3.11372    6.54823    9.66194
Marlins            7   10   .464   75.1   86.9    2.87278    6.67467    9.54745

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.8 87.1 81.3 75.4 65.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           12    5   .497   85.0   77.0   20.93064   28.25489   49.18554
Cardinals         10    7   .557   92.2   69.8   62.83603   19.81493   82.65096
Pirates            8    9   .496   79.9   82.1    7.75756   16.31287   24.07043
Reds               7    9   .497   80.1   81.9    8.17692   17.03641   25.21333
Cubs               4   11   .432   67.0   95.0     .29886     .90205    1.20091

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.6 84.6 80.1 75.7 69.7
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           10    7   .510   85.8   76.2   43.67865   13.11777   56.79642
Giants            10    7   .487   81.8   80.2   22.53130   12.72175   35.25306
Rockies            9    9   .486   80.2   81.8   17.44190   10.45458   27.89648
Padres             8    9   .472   77.7   84.3   10.69324    7.50505   18.19828
Diamondbacks       5   14   .482   75.1   86.9    5.65490    4.72274   10.37764

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.