Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Sat Apr 19 07:22:30 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.9 89.2 84.9 80.6 74.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 10 7 .544 85.6 76.4 20.45826 26.11797 46.57623 Blue Jays 9 8 .523 81.3 80.7 8.85478 16.67479 25.52957 Orioles 8 7 .531 82.7 79.3 12.07114 20.01876 32.08990 Rays 8 9 .561 86.1 75.9 22.73018 26.28970 49.01987 Red Sox 7 10 .583 88.9 73.1 35.88564 27.63868 63.52432
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.6 84.4 79.5 74.5 67.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Royals 8 7 .493 78.5 83.5 11.37818 7.06714 18.44533 Twins 8 8 .449 71.3 90.7 2.21406 1.42431 3.63837 White Sox 8 9 .505 79.9 82.1 14.68263 8.67367 23.35630 Tigers 7 6 .551 88.4 73.6 57.23009 9.36732 66.59741 Indians 7 9 .508 79.8 82.2 14.49503 8.60324 23.09828
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.2 85.6 80.2 74.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 11 5 .525 86.5 75.5 39.34527 15.03833 54.38361 Rangers 10 7 .527 85.3 76.7 33.08302 15.03970 48.12272 Angels 8 8 .525 83.1 78.9 22.95976 13.64244 36.60220 Mariners 7 9 .469 74.1 87.9 3.40071 3.32086 6.72157 Astros 5 12 .462 69.9 92.1 1.21124 1.08307 2.29431 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.6 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.5 86.6 80.0 74.5 68.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 11 5 .506 86.6 75.4 28.66189 29.44407 58.10596 Nationals 10 7 .548 91.8 70.2 62.31237 19.63189 81.94426 Mets 8 8 .453 75.2 86.8 3.03925 6.85810 9.89735 Phillies 7 9 .462 75.0 87.0 3.11372 6.54823 9.66194 Marlins 7 10 .464 75.1 86.9 2.87278 6.67467 9.54745
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.8 87.1 81.3 75.4 65.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 12 5 .497 85.0 77.0 20.93064 28.25489 49.18554 Cardinals 10 7 .557 92.2 69.8 62.83603 19.81493 82.65096 Pirates 8 9 .496 79.9 82.1 7.75756 16.31287 24.07043 Reds 7 9 .497 80.1 81.9 8.17692 17.03641 25.21333 Cubs 4 11 .432 67.0 95.0 .29886 .90205 1.20091
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.6 84.6 80.1 75.7 69.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 10 7 .510 85.8 76.2 43.67865 13.11777 56.79642 Giants 10 7 .487 81.8 80.2 22.53130 12.72175 35.25306 Rockies 9 9 .486 80.2 81.8 17.44190 10.45458 27.89648 Padres 8 9 .472 77.7 84.3 10.69324 7.50505 18.19828 Diamondbacks 5 14 .482 75.1 86.9 5.65490 4.72274 10.37764 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.1 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
