Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Apr 23 07:38:48 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.7 89.2 85.0 80.8 75.2
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           12    8   .544   86.3   75.7   22.94269   26.92712   49.86980
Blue Jays         11    9   .523   81.8   80.2    9.68339   17.30895   26.99234
Rays              10   10   .561   86.3   75.7   23.50633   26.51331   50.01964
Orioles            9   10   .531   82.0   80.0    9.92268   18.10288   28.02556
Red Sox            9   12   .583   88.6   73.4   33.94493   28.01087   61.95580

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.8 84.5 79.6 74.7 67.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            10    7   .551   89.1   72.9   60.99712    9.08224   70.07936
Royals            10    9   .493   78.4   83.6   10.16099    6.90359   17.06458
White Sox         10   11   .505   80.2   81.8   14.19766    9.15179   23.34945
Twins              9   10   .449   71.1   90.9    1.80795    1.25493    3.06288
Indians            9   11   .508   79.7   82.3   12.83628    8.40687   21.24315

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.2 85.7 80.2 73.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         13    7   .525   86.2   75.8   36.78400   15.80538   52.58937
Rangers           13    8   .527   86.3   75.7   37.30801   15.76101   53.06902
Angels            10   10   .525   83.4   78.6   23.05075   13.95682   37.00756
Mariners           7   13   .469   72.1   89.9    1.75847    1.81247    3.57094
Astros             7   14   .462   70.2   91.8    1.09878    1.00177    2.10054

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.7 86.4 80.5 75.3 69.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            13    7   .506   86.4   75.6   30.19305   27.91237   58.10543
Nationals         11   10   .548   90.6   71.4   58.43975   20.37364   78.81339
Phillies          10   10   .462   76.4   85.6    4.35177    8.02104   12.37281
Mets              10   10   .453   75.3   86.7    3.20472    6.63142    9.83613
Marlins           10   11   .464   76.1   85.9    3.81072    7.78082   11.59154

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.7 87.1 81.3 75.5 66.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           15    6   .497   86.0   76.0   23.94536   31.27490   55.22026
Cardinals         12    9   .557   92.1   69.9   62.65230   20.98908   83.64139
Reds               9   11   .497   80.1   81.9    7.60591   17.38416   24.99008
Pirates            9   12   .496   78.7   83.3    5.47699   13.73036   19.20735
Cubs               7   12   .432   68.0   94.0     .31944    1.11639    1.43583

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.1 84.2 79.8 75.3 69.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           12    9   .510   85.5   76.5   44.29525   12.27381   56.56906
Rockies           12   10   .486   81.0   81.0   20.95591   10.95224   31.90814
Giants            11   10   .487   80.9   81.1   20.06242   11.37602   31.43844
Padres            10   11   .472   77.8   84.2   11.16977    7.27081   18.44058
Diamondbacks       5   18   .482   73.2   88.8    3.51666    2.91293    6.42958

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.9
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.