Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon May 4 08:02:33 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.6 87.4 83.5 79.6 74.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           16    9   .523   85.8   76.2   29.11576   21.01173   50.12748
Rays              13   12   .517   82.0   80.0   13.74682   15.80373   29.55054
Orioles           12   11   .535   84.6   77.4   23.61350   19.95391   43.56741
Red Sox           12   13   .540   84.8   77.2   24.11429   20.43210   44.54639
Blue Jays         12   14   .512   80.2   81.8    9.40964   12.19102   21.60065

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.1 85.3 80.8 76.1 69.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            17    9   .514   85.0   77.0   33.58422   14.73952   48.32374
Royals            16    9   .520   85.4   76.6   36.18557   14.62903   50.81460
Twins             13   12   .448   71.5   90.5    1.54003    1.45861    2.99863
Indians            9   15   .535   81.3   80.7   17.33862   11.31845   28.65707
White Sox          8   14   .522   79.2   82.8   11.35158    8.37989   19.73147

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.6 86.0 81.5 76.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            18    7   .509   86.3   75.7   37.64283   16.87122   54.51406
Angels            11   14   .515   80.0   82.0   11.72270   10.23354   21.95624
Athletics         11   15   .551   84.7   77.3   28.83824   16.84032   45.67856
Mariners          10   15   .541   82.8   79.2   20.57733   14.72899   35.30632
Rangers            8   16   .473   71.0   91.0    1.21890    1.40793    2.62683

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.3 83.7 76.5 70.3 63.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets              16   10   .471   82.2   79.8   10.67695   25.43091   36.10786
Marlins           12   13   .455   75.8   86.2    2.61690    8.02450   10.64140
Braves            12   13   .413   69.9   92.1     .49505    1.67987    2.17492
Nationals         12   14   .580   94.6   67.4   86.07383    7.49023   93.56407
Phillies           9   17   .410   66.6   95.4     .13727     .58000     .71727

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.4 87.7 82.9 78.5 72.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         18    6   .536   93.4   68.6   67.56937   20.41839   87.98775
Cubs              13   10   .511   84.6   77.4   15.87254   32.92336   48.79590
Pirates           12   13   .496   81.1   80.9    7.34746   22.41253   29.76000
Reds              12   13   .488   79.5   82.5    5.00816   17.93731   22.94547
Brewers            7   18   .516   78.9   83.1    4.20247   16.00728   20.20975

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.6 84.1 78.6 73.8 67.9
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           16    8   .546   93.8   68.2   83.69625    7.49005   91.18630
Padres            14   12   .474   80.2   81.8    8.04338   18.07633   26.11970
Giants            12   13   .469   77.9   84.1    4.83754   12.12374   16.96128
Rockies           11   13   .444   74.1   87.9    1.99205    5.22491    7.21696
Diamondbacks      10   14   .447   73.0   89.0    1.43078    4.18059    5.61137

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.