Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Apr 25 08:03:54 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 100.8 91.5 83.4 75.5 67.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 17 5 .590 99.1 62.9 73.10607 21.01808 94.12415 Blue Jays 14 8 .506 83.4 78.6 4.27645 23.15977 27.43622 Yankees 13 9 .568 91.4 70.6 22.23415 48.99572 71.22987 Rays 8 13 .463 71.5 90.5 .12919 1.63725 1.76644 Orioles 6 17 .493 73.5 88.5 .25414 2.73250 2.98664
Average wins by position in AL Central: 103.5 85.9 70.7 64.1 57.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 12 9 .636 103.2 58.8 94.34902 4.28805 98.63706 Tigers 9 11 .413 65.9 96.1 .01438 .24827 .26265 Twins 8 10 .536 85.9 76.1 5.62227 34.97197 40.59424 White Sox 5 15 .406 60.5 101.5 .00200 .02360 .02560 Royals 5 16 .438 65.7 96.3 .01233 .20908 .22141
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.0 88.1 82.5 77.3 71.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Angels 16 8 .512 85.4 76.6 14.21878 24.21451 38.43328 Astros 16 9 .588 95.5 66.5 74.92269 12.77630 87.69900 Athletics 13 11 .473 76.5 85.5 1.83138 4.90727 6.73864 Mariners 12 10 .511 82.3 79.7 7.58295 16.12976 23.71271 Rangers 8 17 .506 76.3 85.7 1.44421 4.68788 6.13209 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 89.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.6 86.5 80.6 73.1 59.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 15 6 .478 84.3 77.7 20.09899 11.45561 31.55460 Phillies 14 8 .490 83.7 78.3 18.79883 10.31442 29.11324 Braves 12 10 .436 74.7 87.3 2.29713 1.79875 4.09587 Nationals 10 14 .562 90.7 71.3 58.78758 10.41829 69.20587 Marlins 6 17 .377 59.7 102.3 .01748 .00643 .02391
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.9 91.3 85.3 77.0 63.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 15 9 .535 88.9 73.1 18.02164 34.10293 52.12457 Cardinals 13 9 .531 88.4 73.6 16.66550 32.34984 49.01534 Pirates 12 10 .473 78.3 83.7 1.69794 6.53372 8.23166 Cubs 11 9 .588 96.5 65.5 63.60237 22.68670 86.28907 Reds 5 18 .426 63.9 98.1 .01255 .05473 .06728
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.2 89.6 83.6 76.3 58.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Diamondbacks 16 6 .508 88.3 73.7 22.34255 27.31961 49.66216 Rockies 13 12 .519 84.6 77.4 11.07743 17.96718 29.04461 Dodgers 11 11 .586 94.8 67.2 63.71267 18.04634 81.75900 Giants 11 12 .479 79.0 83.0 2.86682 6.94351 9.81033 Padres 9 16 .360 58.1 103.9 .00053 .00196 .00249 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 93.5 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
