Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Sep 1 07:27:30 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.6 84.3 81.5 78.5 73.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           79   56   .502   92.5   69.5   98.26047     .75737   99.01783
Yankees           70   65   .486   83.1   78.9    1.28662    6.37729    7.66391
Blue Jays         69   67   .509   82.1   79.9     .44177    3.22356    3.66532
Rays              66   71   .522   79.0   83.0     .01115     .16459     .17574
Red Sox           60   76   .522   73.4   88.6     .00000     .00005     .00005

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.5 86.3 82.9 74.8 70.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            74   61   .498   86.8   74.2   35.06745   23.34630   58.41375
Tigers            74   62   .540   88.5   73.5   58.62725   16.94055   75.56781
Indians           70   64   .493   83.4   77.6    6.30525    7.92140   14.22665
White Sox         62   75   .504   74.2   87.8     .00005     .00015     .00020
Twins             59   77   .478   71.4   90.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.6 92.4 86.3 70.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            83   53   .516   96.3   65.7   82.20480   17.75811   99.96291
Athletics         78   58   .548   92.6   69.4   17.36825   81.06460   98.43285
Mariners          73   62   .518   86.4   75.6     .42695   42.44603   42.87298
Astros            59   79   .490   70.4   91.6     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           53   83   .467   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  92.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.1 84.8 79.5 75.8 72.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         77   58   .547   92.1   69.9   96.30243    3.09229   99.39472
Braves            72   65   .499   84.7   77.3    3.62713   39.67232   43.29945
Marlins           66   69   .489   79.2   82.8     .06945    1.41767    1.48712
Mets              64   73   .475   75.7   86.3     .00098     .02178     .02276
Phillies          62   74   .447   73.3   88.7     .00000     .00173     .00173

Average wins by position in NL Central:  88.5 85.8 83.2 78.0 72.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           73   63   .523   86.8   75.2   45.95423   28.01259   73.96681
Cardinals         73   63   .522   86.6   75.4   43.01398   28.90541   71.91938
Pirates           71   65   .506   84.0   78.0   10.90023   22.69901   33.59924
Reds              66   71   .483   77.9   84.1     .13140     .43018     .56158
Cubs              61   76   .477   72.9   89.1     .00018     .00079     .00096

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.9 86.5 77.1 69.6 66.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           77   60   .526   90.5   71.5   81.40177   16.74704   98.14880
Giants            74   62   .496   86.9   75.1   18.59287   58.80288   77.39575
Padres            64   71   .464   77.1   84.9     .00537     .19632     .20169
Diamondbacks      57   79   .451   68.6   93.4     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           54   82   .504   67.5   94.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  87.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.