Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Aug 18 08:05:45 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  109.5 99.1 81.4 74.2 52.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           87   36   .581  109.4   52.6   98.34535    1.65463   99.99998
Yankees           76   46   .567   99.2   62.8    1.65465   97.62235   99.27700
Rays              62   60   .488   81.2   80.8     .00000     .17887     .17887
Blue Jays         55   67   .485   74.4   87.6     .00000     .00010     .00010
Orioles           36   86   .415   52.0  110.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.1 80.0 67.6 62.0 54.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           70   51   .593   95.1   66.9   99.92700     .00408   99.93108
Twins             58   63   .522   80.0   82.0     .07300     .08600     .15900
Tigers            50   73   .444   67.2   94.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         45   76   .431   62.3   99.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            37   85   .430   54.2  107.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.6 93.0 88.9 80.8 73.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            74   48   .577   97.0   65.0   78.92976   17.63005   96.55981
Athletics         73   49   .502   92.5   69.5   16.34006   55.75800   72.09805
Mariners          70   53   .514   89.8   72.2    4.72373   26.89689   31.62061
Angels            62   62   .510   80.6   81.4     .00646     .16873     .17518
Rangers           55   69   .502   73.7   88.3     .00000     .00031     .00031

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  99.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  92.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.8 87.2 83.3 71.5 63.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            68   53   .517   89.5   72.5   58.98405   17.04920   76.03325
Phillies          68   54   .492   87.8   74.2   34.22717   22.91301   57.14018
Nationals         62   61   .548   84.1   77.9    6.78870   10.09250   16.88120
Mets              52   69   .479   71.4   90.6     .00008     .00016     .00024
Marlins           48   76   .404   63.1   98.9     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.0 88.9 85.4 79.8 71.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              71   50   .539   93.6   68.4   83.95573   12.78928   96.74502
Brewers           68   56   .512   87.9   74.1   11.13260   46.19829   57.33089
Cardinals         67   56   .507   86.4   75.6    4.81193   32.76521   37.57715
Pirates           61   62   .484   80.0   82.0     .09973    1.29385    1.39358
Reds              53   69   .451   71.1   90.9     .00000     .00007     .00007

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.5 87.4 84.7 80.5 63.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Diamondbacks      68   55   .488   86.6   75.4   22.94383   18.37088   41.31471
Rockies           66   56   .508   86.6   75.4   22.88239   18.88336   41.76575
Dodgers           66   57   .573   88.9   73.1   53.12179   17.59777   70.71956
Giants            61   62   .501   81.1   80.9    1.05199    2.04642    3.09841
Padres            48   77   .420   63.2   98.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.