Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Aug 25 07:53:21 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.0 91.7 88.0 80.1 76.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 78 53 .541 94.0 68.0 64.31570 35.68250 99.99820 Yankees 74 56 .554 92.0 70.0 30.29670 69.65730 99.95400 Red Sox 72 59 .551 88.7 73.3 5.38750 93.42630 98.81380 Blue Jays 64 68 .492 79.0 83.0 .00000 13.06640 13.06640 Orioles 63 68 .482 77.7 84.3 .00010 5.82940 5.82950
Average wins by position in AL Central: 84.6 81.8 79.1 76.1 70.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox 68 63 .487 83.0 79.0 49.21930 16.96180 66.18110 Guardians 66 66 .528 82.5 79.5 40.05260 19.79050 59.84310 Twins 64 68 .496 79.1 82.9 8.49280 7.43820 15.93100 Tigers 61 70 .517 76.9 85.1 2.22880 2.31440 4.54320 Royals 58 74 .446 71.0 91.0 .00650 .00730 .01380
Average wins by position in AL west: 83.8 81.4 78.9 65.3 62.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 66 66 .535 81.7 80.3 37.61810 12.38560 50.00370 Astros 65 66 .549 81.6 80.4 36.20310 12.68140 48.88450 Mariners 63 69 .573 80.8 81.2 26.17880 10.75890 36.93770 Angels 52 80 .428 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 51 81 .437 63.5 98.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.1 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 82.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.4 88.7 81.0 75.8 72.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 76 55 .517 91.3 70.7 63.76940 34.75050 98.51990 Phillies 73 59 .574 89.7 72.3 36.16540 58.90170 95.06710 Marlins 67 65 .475 80.9 81.1 .06520 5.88010 5.94530 Nationals 62 71 .441 75.1 86.9 .00000 .02700 .02700 Mets 59 72 .480 73.4 88.6 .00000 .00420 .00420
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.0 91.4 81.8 78.7 74.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 81 50 .562 97.8 64.2 92.17960 7.81930 99.99890 Cubs 76 56 .531 91.5 70.5 7.82040 90.81290 98.63330 Cardinals 66 66 .470 80.1 81.9 .00000 2.66420 2.66420 Pirates 64 69 .543 80.2 81.8 .00000 2.89560 2.89560 Reds 62 70 .474 74.7 87.3 .00000 .02040 .02040
Average wins by position in NL West: 99.8 86.9 83.2 67.1 63.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 80 51 .620 99.8 62.2 99.95260 .04720 99.99980 Padres 71 61 .507 86.1 75.9 .04490 65.58510 65.63000 Diamondbacks 69 63 .507 84.0 78.0 .00250 30.59180 30.59430 Giants 53 78 .450 66.6 95.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 50 81 .439 63.5 98.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.9 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
