Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Mar 22 15:54:40 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.3 87.7 82.8 77.9 71.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles            0    0   .541   85.7   76.3   28.91553   18.75804   47.67357
Red Sox            0    0   .538   85.5   76.5   28.32804   18.65744   46.98548
Yankees            0    0   .520   82.0   80.0   16.86383   15.30376   32.16758
Rays               0    0   .514   80.9   81.1   13.98508   13.70464   27.68973
Blue Jays          0    0   .507   79.9   82.1   11.90752   12.35879   24.26630

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.0 86.0 80.8 75.5 67.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians            0    0   .538   85.8   77.2   35.31485   13.23280   48.54765
Royals             0    0   .519   82.3   80.7   21.39365   11.66620   33.05985
White Sox          0    0   .517   81.5   80.5   20.31268   11.49680   31.80948
Tigers             0    0   .513   80.9   81.1   18.58308   10.85787   29.44096
Twins              0    0   .468   72.7   89.3    4.39573    3.39575    7.79148

Average wins by position in AL west:  94.5 87.4 81.9 76.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics          0    0   .547   87.2   74.8   35.44067   19.34576   54.78643
Mariners           0    0   .543   86.6   75.4   32.68682   19.30516   51.99199
Angels             0    0   .518   81.9   80.1   16.57545   15.15632   31.73177
Astros             0    0   .505   79.8   82.2   11.89920   12.25439   24.15359
Rangers            0    0   .469   73.1   88.9    3.39786    4.50628    7.90414

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  99.4 83.8 76.4 69.9 62.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals          0    0   .583   98.8   63.2   89.11478    5.50491   94.61968
Mets               0    0   .466   78.1   83.9    5.14713   15.81927   20.96640
Marlins            0    0   .459   76.9   85.1    4.19379   13.32668   17.52047
Braves             0    0   .417   69.5   92.5     .90236    3.35284    4.25520
Phillies           0    0   .411   68.2   93.8     .64194    2.50493    3.14687

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.1 88.4 83.3 78.3 71.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals          0    0   .535   88.0   74.0   36.01256   25.96511   61.97768
Brewers            0    0   .515   84.5   77.5   21.90438   24.58965   46.49403
Cubs               0    0   .513   84.0   78.0   20.42472   23.86611   44.29082
Pirates            0    0   .494   80.8   81.2   12.15008   18.57436   30.72445
Reds               0    0   .486   79.4   82.6    9.50827   16.02426   25.53252

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.7 84.8 78.7 73.0 65.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .549   92.4   69.6   69.80638   11.20161   81.00800
Giants             0    0   .473   78.8   83.2   10.92830   13.48183   24.41013
Padres             0    0   .472   78.7   83.3   10.77295   13.34928   24.12223
Rockies            0    0   .446   74.3   87.7    4.83926    6.97475   11.81401
Diamondbacks       0    0   .439   72.8   89.2    3.65311    5.46441    9.11752

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.5
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.