Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Jul 17 08:03:15 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.6 85.2 81.9 78.2 74.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           52   41   .532   87.8   74.2   58.38177   22.90909   81.29086
Rays              49   44   .519   83.3   78.7   17.00479   27.03669   44.04148
Yankees           47   43   .532   83.9   78.1   21.47882   28.38853   49.86734
Orioles           42   49   .511   77.1   84.9    1.51955    5.30056    6.82011
Blue Jays         42   49   .509   76.9   85.1    1.61507    4.50425    6.11933

Average wins by position in AL Central:  88.7 83.0 78.7 74.6 68.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           47   43   .562   87.9   74.1   75.77215    9.19104   84.96320
Twins             46   45   .512   82.3   79.7   17.93027   19.73853   37.66879
Royals            45   45   .453   77.0   85.0    3.00121    4.04496    7.04617
Tigers            41   49   .507   77.2   84.8    3.23918    4.54991    7.78909
White Sox         38   52   .444   69.1   92.9     .05720     .05798     .11518

Average wins by position in AL west:  104.2 85.4 80.5 76.8 72.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            62   30   .611  104.2   57.8   99.87570     .12329   99.99899
Mariners          46   47   .572   84.2   77.8     .11570   52.47697   52.59267
Angels            46   49   .476   76.0   86.0     .00060    3.47628    3.47688
Rangers           45   46   .499   79.2   82.8     .00753   14.12575   14.13328
Athletics         42   50   .506   76.1   85.9     .00047    4.07616    4.07663

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  87.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  84.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.5 80.3 76.3 72.5 64.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         55   36   .531   93.5   67.5   98.78565     .41470   99.20035
Braves            45   45   .420   75.3   86.7     .17410    1.51169    1.68579
Mets              41   48   .498   77.4   83.6     .64395    4.50700    5.15095
Marlins           41   49   .462   76.1   85.9     .39630    2.02477    2.42107
Phillies          30   60   .468   65.1   96.9     .00000     .00161     .00161

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.2 84.9 81.0 76.5 70.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           52   42   .502   85.9   76.1   40.96862   18.28544   59.25406
Cubs              46   45   .548   86.4   75.6   46.13235   16.99213   63.12447
Cardinals         44   47   .512   81.4   80.6   10.83579   10.42069   21.25648
Pirates           44   48   .465   77.0   85.0    1.96060    2.32767    4.28827
Reds              39   52   .448   71.2   90.8     .10265     .13448     .23713

Average wins by position in NL West:  105.2 90.1 84.8 71.4 66.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           64   29   .570  105.1   56.9   99.35405     .64473   99.99878
Diamondbacks      53   39   .501   88.1   73.9     .45240   76.03635   76.48875
Rockies           53   41   .472   86.8   75.2     .19355   66.63705   66.83060
Padres            40   51   .407   69.1   92.9     .00000     .04073     .04073
Giants            35   58   .473   68.5   93.5     .00000     .02096     .02096

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.4
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.