Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed May 27 08:02:20 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.5 85.1 81.8 78.5 74.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           24   22   .523   83.4   78.6   27.22435   14.50053   41.72488
Rays              24   23   .517   81.4   80.6   17.42026   12.19658   29.61684
Blue Jays         22   26   .512   79.2   82.8   10.04817    8.25648   18.30465
Red Sox           21   25   .540   82.9   79.1   24.80967   13.84401   38.65368
Orioles           20   23   .535   82.0   80.0   20.49757   12.82783   33.32540

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.7 85.5 81.7 77.9 73.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            28   17   .520   87.2   74.8   47.08600   18.40277   65.48878
Twins             27   18   .448   77.2   84.8    4.65480    6.41332   11.06812
Tigers            27   20   .514   84.3   77.7   26.57676   19.98475   46.56150
Indians           20   25   .535   81.0   81.0   13.12654   13.89489   27.02143
White Sox         19   24   .522   79.2   82.8    8.55589   10.38587   18.94176

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.8 85.6 81.7 77.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            30   17   .509   87.2   74.8   46.59546   19.15565   65.75111
Angels            23   23   .515   81.4   80.6   14.01570   14.87124   28.88693
Rangers           23   23   .473   76.5   85.5    3.75508    5.27783    9.03291
Mariners          22   23   .541   84.6   77.4   28.32997   20.33565   48.66562
Athletics         17   31   .551   79.0   83.0    7.30380    9.65260   16.95639

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  88.3
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  85.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.3 83.0 75.1 70.0 64.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         27   19   .580   97.1   64.9   94.92352    3.54147   98.46499
Mets              26   21   .471   82.1   79.9    4.71470   30.82369   35.53839
Braves            22   23   .413   71.6   90.4     .17688    2.20774    2.38462
Phillies          19   29   .410   67.0   95.0     .01928     .33192     .35119
Marlins           18   29   .455   71.7   90.3     .16563    2.03484    2.20047

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.0 87.1 82.0 77.4 71.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         30   16   .536   93.8   68.2   75.79388   17.60586   93.39973
Cubs              25   20   .511   85.5   76.5   15.83915   42.16955   58.00869
Pirates           23   22   .496   81.4   80.6    5.73629   25.64317   31.37946
Reds              19   26   .488   76.6   85.4    1.44591    9.48809   10.93400
Brewers           16   31   .516   76.3   85.7    1.18477    8.44415    9.62891

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.2 84.5 79.1 74.3 68.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           28   17   .546   93.5   68.5   85.37638    8.41189   93.78827
Giants            27   20   .469   82.3   79.7    9.38911   27.67269   37.06179
Padres            22   25   .474   78.8   83.2    3.76644   14.68478   18.45123
Diamondbacks      21   24   .447   74.4   87.6    1.07172    4.76774    5.83946
Rockies           18   26   .444   71.7   90.3     .39636    2.17243    2.56879

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.