Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Jul 26 07:52:26 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.9 90.9 86.0 80.9 74.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Orioles 61 41 .530 92.5 69.5 46.85790 49.14850 96.00640 Yankees 60 44 .548 92.5 69.5 47.50890 48.86910 96.37800 Red Sox 54 47 .534 85.8 76.2 5.21280 50.49940 55.71220 Rays 52 51 .516 81.4 80.6 .41550 15.15840 15.57390 Blue Jays 46 56 .488 74.8 87.2 .00490 .58450 .58940
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.2 88.0 83.6 78.2 50.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 61 41 .488 89.7 72.3 47.66550 38.82040 86.48590 Twins 56 45 .541 89.5 72.5 45.08380 40.14700 85.23080 Royals 56 47 .478 83.9 78.1 6.81530 28.32450 35.13980 Tigers 51 53 .464 78.9 83.1 .43540 5.07280 5.50820 White Sox 27 78 .412 50.9 111.1 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 87.8 83.3 79.4 72.3 66.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 53 49 .562 86.8 75.2 69.46120 6.41740 75.87860 Mariners 53 51 .497 81.6 80.4 14.52740 8.03990 22.56730 Rangers 51 52 .520 81.9 80.1 15.88760 8.88020 24.76780 Angels 45 58 .450 71.7 90.3 .11900 .03780 .15680 Athletics 42 63 .450 67.7 94.3 .00480 .00010 .00490 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.4 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.9 89.1 83.7 72.8 61.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 64 38 .569 97.7 64.3 93.30930 6.59700 99.90630 Braves 54 47 .554 88.2 73.8 5.52220 77.91750 83.43970 Mets 54 48 .514 84.7 77.3 1.16810 51.86730 53.03540 Nationals 47 56 .436 72.8 89.2 .00040 .29460 .29500 Marlins 37 66 .423 61.1 100.9 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.6 84.5 81.4 78.7 75.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 59 43 .514 90.2 71.8 84.65560 8.29520 92.95080 Cardinals 53 49 .494 82.8 79.2 9.66360 25.54360 35.20720 Pirates 52 50 .470 80.0 82.0 2.67230 11.59950 14.27180 Reds 49 53 .488 78.2 83.8 1.38840 5.56680 6.95520 Cubs 49 55 .506 79.3 82.7 1.62010 8.48050 10.10060
Average wins by position in NL West: 95.3 86.5 82.7 77.9 63.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 62 42 .575 95.2 66.8 94.82110 4.70890 99.53000 Padres 55 50 .511 84.3 77.7 2.66180 46.21530 48.87710 Diamondbacks 53 50 .527 84.1 77.9 2.41730 44.67600 47.09330 Giants 49 55 .497 78.8 83.2 .09980 8.23780 8.33760 Rockies 38 65 .435 63.1 98.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.1 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
