Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Jun 26 07:53:14 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.4 86.4 81.3 77.7 73.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 48 32 .562 93.8 68.2 85.27410 14.08140 99.35550 Rays 45 33 .501 85.7 76.3 12.64610 68.59610 81.24220 Blue Jays 39 42 .503 78.6 83.4 .87880 27.62400 28.50280 Orioles 38 44 .513 78.6 83.4 .84280 26.76800 27.61080 Red Sox 33 46 .530 76.5 85.5 .35820 15.48390 15.84210
Average wins by position in AL Central: 84.7 80.4 77.2 74.2 70.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 42 39 .485 82.2 79.8 51.42220 11.78700 63.20920 White Sox 41 38 .469 79.6 82.4 27.18950 13.01270 40.20220 Twins 38 44 .473 75.5 86.5 7.86750 5.68770 13.55520 Tigers 34 47 .529 76.7 85.3 11.15800 8.11870 19.27670 Royals 34 48 .482 72.5 89.5 2.36280 2.08390 4.44670
Average wins by position in AL west: 88.0 83.3 79.8 76.1 69.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 41 41 .572 86.3 75.7 62.46260 23.23770 85.70030 Astros 40 43 .527 81.6 80.4 18.25850 34.12110 52.37960 Rangers 39 42 .504 79.7 82.3 10.63190 25.92080 36.55270 Athletics 39 42 .501 79.0 83.0 8.48950 22.73760 31.22710 Angels 34 48 .459 69.5 92.5 .15750 .73940 .89690 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 87.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 83.9 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 82.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.7 87.1 81.2 77.2 72.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 48 31 .524 91.1 70.9 65.02190 28.75250 93.77440 Phillies 45 36 .544 88.0 74.0 32.00330 50.91130 82.91460 Marlins 42 39 .469 79.3 82.7 1.86440 16.92320 18.78760 Nationals 41 41 .452 76.8 85.2 .58390 7.46870 8.05260 Mets 34 47 .533 76.0 86.0 .52650 5.56320 6.08970
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.7 87.2 83.2 79.5 74.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 49 29 .572 96.4 65.6 91.76630 7.57660 99.34290 Cubs 44 37 .508 84.3 77.7 4.18250 52.74420 56.92670 Cardinals 42 36 .488 82.1 79.9 1.85550 36.57640 38.43190 Pirates 41 40 .526 82.5 79.5 2.10480 39.15950 41.26430 Reds 37 42 .480 75.3 86.7 .09090 5.09630 5.18720
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.6 83.3 78.2 73.6 65.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 52 29 .611 101.6 60.4 99.73520 .24810 99.98330 Padres 42 37 .444 77.9 84.1 .05280 12.13320 12.18600 Diamondbacks 41 39 .495 81.4 80.6 .20390 32.30760 32.51150 Giants 33 47 .514 75.3 86.7 .00810 4.51330 4.52140 Rockies 32 49 .424 66.1 95.9 .00000 .02590 .02590 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.4 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
