Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Mar 14 14:54:37 EDT 2024


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.0 89.7 84.9 80.2 73.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees            0    0   .541   87.3   74.7   27.54360   33.69100   61.23460
Rays               0    0   .535   86.2   75.8   23.44420   33.26180   56.70600
Blue Jays          0    0   .528   84.9   77.1   19.24240   31.46410   50.70650
Orioles            0    0   .527   84.7   77.3   18.62120   31.17530   49.79650
Red Sox            0    0   .509   81.6   80.4   11.14860   25.23440   36.38300

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.7 83.5 77.5 71.6 63.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins              0    0   .536   88.0   74.0   56.90840   12.62780   69.53620
Guardians          0    0   .494   80.9   81.1   21.95540   14.69510   36.65050
Tigers             0    0   .473   77.3   84.7   12.37080   10.34790   22.71870
Royals             0    0   .455   74.0   88.0    6.83430    6.46100   13.29530
White Sox          0    0   .419   67.9   94.1    1.93110    1.98900    3.92010

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.0 87.9 81.4 74.0 62.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros             0    0   .562   91.8   70.2   53.63780   25.57410   79.21190
Rangers            0    0   .528   86.0   76.0   24.59060   31.57420   56.16480
Mariners           0    0   .513   83.4   78.6   16.67900   27.76600   44.44500
Angels             0    0   .473   76.5   85.5    4.86920   13.18020   18.04940
Athletics          0    0   .399   63.8   98.2     .22340     .95810    1.18150

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  92.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.5
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  85.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  99.9 88.6 79.7 72.1 61.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves             0    0   .600   98.1   63.9   74.81870   19.48620   94.30490
Phillies           0    0   .540   87.9   74.1   20.22710   47.46620   67.69330
Marlins            0    0   .473   76.6   85.4    2.68370   17.38740   20.07110
Mets               0    0   .468   75.6   86.4    2.15320   14.99230   17.14550
Nationals          0    0   .401   64.1   97.9     .11730    1.36920    1.48650

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.0 86.4 81.4 76.2 68.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals          0    0   .520   84.6   77.4   29.03050   24.29290   53.32340
Cubs               0    0   .519   84.5   77.5   28.62290   24.24490   52.86780
Reds               0    0   .506   81.8   80.2   19.26410   21.71260   40.97670
Brewers            0    0   .506   81.8   80.2   19.29850   21.66770   40.96620
Pirates            0    0   .452   72.9   89.1    3.78400    7.56910   11.35310

Average wins by position in NL West:  100.8 87.9 80.3 73.7 65.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .610   99.6   62.4   82.43720   13.47720   95.91440
Diamondbacks       0    0   .526   85.1   76.9   11.74720   43.43020   55.17740
Padres             0    0   .481   77.5   84.5    2.92980   20.25100   23.18080
Giants             0    0   .477   76.8   85.2    2.51720   18.35070   20.86790
Rockies            0    0   .430   68.8   93.2     .36860    4.30240    4.67100

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  92.7
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.2
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  85.2

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.