Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sat Apr 27 07:52:32 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.7 90.1 86.0 81.9 76.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 17 10 .554 91.7 70.3 46.03160 37.95240 83.98400 Orioles 16 9 .533 88.0 74.0 24.59230 43.34410 67.93640 Red Sox 14 13 .511 81.9 80.1 6.61010 28.11830 34.72840 Blue Jays 13 14 .535 85.2 76.8 13.46410 39.68120 53.14530 Rays 13 14 .530 83.4 78.6 9.30190 33.74620 43.04810
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.0 83.1 78.3 72.7 58.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 18 8 .482 84.4 77.6 42.87670 12.00980 54.88650 Royals 17 10 .457 79.1 82.9 16.20530 8.81310 25.01840 Tigers 14 12 .459 76.9 85.1 10.17490 6.52580 16.70070 Twins 12 13 .506 82.5 79.5 30.71860 12.43990 43.15850 White Sox 4 22 .401 58.6 103.4 .02450 .01430 .03880
Average wins by position in AL west: 91.5 85.8 81.0 75.2 65.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 14 12 .509 83.2 78.8 22.18060 20.67300 42.85360 Rangers 14 13 .527 85.8 76.2 34.43450 23.63060 58.06510 Athletics 11 16 .419 66.5 95.5 .25480 .47440 .72920 Angels 10 16 .493 77.4 84.6 6.56930 9.34610 15.91540 Astros 7 19 .573 86.1 75.9 36.56080 23.23080 59.79160 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.9 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.5 88.1 79.5 71.3 64.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 18 6 .579 98.7 63.3 84.93990 12.85170 97.79160 Phillies 17 10 .523 87.2 74.8 12.69200 55.22890 67.92090 Mets 13 12 .485 79.7 82.3 2.24660 24.17130 26.41790 Nationals 11 14 .420 68.5 93.5 .07000 1.59300 1.66300 Marlins 6 21 .459 68.2 93.8 .05150 1.36170 1.41320
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.9 87.2 82.9 78.5 72.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 17 8 .514 87.8 74.2 39.47410 31.06010 70.53420 Cubs 17 9 .508 86.8 75.2 33.07420 32.00930 65.08350 Reds 14 12 .500 81.4 80.6 11.49540 23.84700 35.34240 Pirates 13 14 .471 76.3 85.7 3.20130 10.50100 13.70230 Cardinals 12 14 .510 81.9 80.1 12.75500 25.16880 37.92380
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.6 86.1 79.8 74.0 64.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 17 11 .605 98.1 63.9 89.77970 7.98090 97.76060 Padres 14 15 .488 78.8 83.2 1.93710 19.92830 21.86540 Giants 13 14 .478 77.2 84.8 1.30800 14.71130 16.01930 Diamondbacks 12 15 .529 83.3 78.7 6.94880 39.08160 46.03040 Rockies 7 19 .433 65.3 96.7 .02640 .50510 .53150 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.3 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.6 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
