Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Jun 30 08:01:58 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.9 86.2 83.4 80.6 76.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rays              42   36   .517   84.4   77.6   23.55248   23.91617   47.46865
Orioles           41   35   .535   85.5   76.5   31.20628   25.08873   56.29501
Yankees           41   36   .523   84.6   77.4   25.05498   24.02439   49.07938
Blue Jays         41   37   .512   82.8   79.2   15.12888   19.80435   34.93322
Red Sox           35   43   .540   79.5   82.5    5.05739    9.85528   14.91267

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.5 84.4 80.5 76.9 72.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            44   29   .520   89.3   72.7   73.37298   10.55366   83.92663
Twins             40   36   .448   76.6   85.4    2.19758    3.87705    6.07463
Tigers            39   36   .514   83.1   79.9   15.90160   18.94080   34.84240
Indians           34   41   .535   79.7   82.3    6.36861   10.12311   16.49172
White Sox         32   42   .522   76.4   85.6    2.15924    3.59564    5.75488

Average wins by position in AL west:  88.7 84.4 81.4 78.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            45   34   .509   86.4   75.6   53.16601   13.24446   66.41046
Angels            40   37   .515   82.5   79.5   20.86899   14.01490   34.88389
Rangers           39   38   .473   78.6   83.4    6.88499    5.69326   12.57825
Athletics         35   44   .551   79.9   82.1    9.40076    8.48509   17.88585
Mariners          34   42   .541   80.0   82.0    9.67925    8.78310   18.46236

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  87.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  85.5

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.6 81.5 74.5 69.4 61.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         42   34   .580   94.5   67.5   96.37080    2.23159   98.60239
Mets              40   37   .471   80.9   81.1    3.44783   21.48093   24.92876
Braves            36   40   .413   72.9   89.1     .12535    1.33257    1.45792
Marlins           31   46   .455   70.9   91.1     .05587     .51700     .57287
Phillies          27   51   .410   62.6   99.4     .00015     .00175     .00190

Average wins by position in NL Central:  99.1 88.1 83.2 78.0 72.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         51   24   .536   98.9   63.1   93.72936    5.93059   99.65995
Pirates           42   33   .496   84.8   77.2    2.90931   53.02559   55.93490
Cubs              39   35   .511   85.4   76.6    3.19991   57.16021   60.36012
Reds              35   40   .488   77.8   85.2     .14560    9.12040    9.26600
Brewers           30   48   .516   73.9   88.1     .01583    2.35783    2.37365

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.8 83.6 79.2 75.3 70.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           43   35   .546   90.2   71.8   82.51168    8.35843   90.87011
Giants            42   35   .469   82.1   79.9   11.88537   23.29825   35.18362
Diamondbacks      37   39   .447   76.2   85.8    1.66587    4.64200    6.30787
Padres            37   41   .474   78.6   83.4    3.70826    9.63185   13.34011
Rockies           33   43   .444   71.9   90.1     .22883     .91101    1.13983

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.9
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.