Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun May 26 07:52:31 AM EDT 2024


Average wins by position in AL East:  98.0 90.4 85.0 80.7 75.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           37   17   .555   96.8   65.2   75.77560   21.82110   97.59670
Orioles           32   18   .526   89.6   72.4   18.54070   59.81240   78.35310
Red Sox           26   26   .525   83.0   79.0    3.30170   33.70310   37.00480
Rays              25   28   .528   81.4   80.6    1.67420   25.02330   26.69750
Blue Jays         23   28   .507   78.7   83.3     .70780   14.04240   14.75020

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.6 87.4 82.7 76.0 58.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Guardians         35   17   .485   89.0   73.0   45.23420   30.56950   75.80370
Royals            34   19   .469   85.0   77.0   20.04530   30.87960   50.92490
Twins             28   23   .527   87.4   74.6   32.61100   33.96000   66.57100
Tigers            25   27   .472   77.3   84.7    2.10900    7.86000    9.96900
White Sox         15   38   .400   58.6  103.4     .00050     .00150     .00200

Average wins by position in AL west:  89.0 83.9 79.3 72.9 64.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mariners          27   26   .508   83.1   78.9   29.04980   13.74260   42.79240
Rangers           24   29   .533   82.4   79.6   23.82780   13.35330   37.18110
Astros            23   29   .563   85.3   76.7   44.99980   13.73890   58.73870
Athletics         22   32   .409   65.0   97.0     .05190     .04120     .09310
Angels            20   32   .481   73.3   88.7    2.07070    1.45110    3.52180

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.1
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  85.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  99.6 92.7 77.2 69.1 61.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Phillies          38   15   .546   96.8   65.2   56.53070   42.04930   98.58000
Braves            29   20   .575   95.4   66.6   43.34210   53.96590   97.30800
Nationals         23   27   .407   68.6   93.4     .00390     .72440     .72830
Mets              21   30   .491   76.2   85.8     .12320    9.56920    9.69240
Marlins           18   35   .422   63.4   98.6     .00010     .04760     .04770

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.9 86.0 81.0 76.6 71.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           30   21   .529   89.4   72.6   57.82890   25.60180   83.43070
Cubs              27   25   .529   86.4   75.6   32.49380   35.69630   68.19010
Pirates           25   28   .464   75.0   87.0    1.25980    5.79960    7.05940
Cardinals         24   26   .491   79.1   82.9    5.33980   15.98550   21.32530
Reds              22   30   .496   77.1   84.9    3.07770    9.76300   12.84070

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.4 86.4 81.3 76.1 64.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           33   21   .602   98.2   63.8   93.96030    5.24260   99.20290
Giants            27   26   .481   79.1   82.9     .89870   19.64340   20.54210
Padres            27   28   .514   82.8   79.2    2.77320   40.43050   43.20370
Diamondbacks      25   27   .518   82.0   80.0    2.36610   35.37400   37.74010
Rockies           17   34   .435   64.7   97.3     .00170     .10690     .10860

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.5
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.9
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  85.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.