Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Feb 16 18:43:10 EST 2020


Average wins by position in AL East:  102.3 91.4 83.5 74.2 60.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees            0    0   .607  100.2   61.8   72.86622   19.34920   92.21542
Rays               0    0   .539   88.6   73.4   16.01197   39.33090   55.34286
Red Sox            0    0   .522   85.5   76.5    9.67265   31.33306   41.00571
Blue Jays          0    0   .467   75.7   86.3    1.41339    8.18061    9.59400
Orioles            0    0   .390   62.1   99.9     .03578     .31405     .34982

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.6 86.3 78.8 69.0 59.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins              0    0   .533   89.8   72.2   50.00383   14.55564   64.55946
Indians            0    0   .512   86.1   75.9   31.16209   16.07198   47.23407
White Sox          0    0   .488   82.1   79.9   17.58891   12.23915   29.82806
Tigers             0    0   .394   65.4   96.6     .65743     .56759    1.22501
Royals             0    0   .391   64.9   97.1     .58775     .49804    1.08579

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.2 87.8 80.8 74.4 66.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros             0    0   .591   97.6   64.4   76.78873   11.33068   88.11942
Angels             0    0   .513   83.5   78.5   11.80094   21.12286   32.92380
Athletics          0    0   .496   81.2   80.8    8.05517   16.22951   24.28468
Mariners           0    0   .455   73.4   88.6    1.74332    4.59741    6.34073
Rangers            0    0   .449   73.0   89.0    1.61184    4.27932    5.89116

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  93.8
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.4 88.9 83.0 76.7 66.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets               0    0   .567   90.5   71.5   42.83930   22.24463   65.08392
Nationals          0    0   .543   87.2   74.8   27.95478   22.95066   50.90544
Braves             0    0   .528   84.0   78.0   17.48303   19.23613   36.71915
Phillies           0    0   .511   81.2   80.8   10.95808   14.67702   25.63509
Marlins            0    0   .441   68.5   93.5     .76482    1.54862    2.31343

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.1 86.1 80.7 75.0 66.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Reds               0    0   .530   85.3   76.7   33.08913   12.52143   45.61055
Brewers            0    0   .523   84.0   78.0   27.38767   11.93489   39.32256
Cubs               0    0   .519   83.5   78.5   25.62173   11.70997   37.33171
Cardinals          0    0   .488   78.3   83.7   11.31381    7.06457   18.37838
Pirates            0    0   .444   70.6   91.4    2.58767    1.84607    4.43374

Average wins by position in NL West:  103.4 89.2 80.9 72.2 61.9
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .626  102.5   59.5   85.06812   10.54897   95.61708
Padres             0    0   .528   85.3   76.7    8.66495   33.04166   41.70661
Diamondbacks       0    0   .516   82.9   79.1    5.57618   25.42013   30.99631
Rockies            0    0   .455   72.5   89.5     .61797    4.62282    5.24079
Giants             0    0   .410   64.5   97.5     .07278     .63244     .70522

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  92.9
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.