Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Sep 20 07:53:01 EDT 2019
Average wins by position in AL East: 104.5 94.7 85.5 66.4 52.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 100 54 .560 104.5 57.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rays 90 63 .544 94.7 67.3 .00000 55.74190 55.74190 Red Sox 80 72 .548 85.5 76.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 62 91 .486 66.4 95.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 49 104 .427 52.7 109.3 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 99.3 94.6 71.1 59.3 49.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 94 59 .546 99.3 62.7 98.52215 1.28975 99.81190 Indians 90 63 .520 94.6 67.4 1.47785 49.38220 50.86005 White Sox 66 86 .460 71.1 90.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 56 98 .444 59.3 102.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 45 107 .441 49.6 112.4 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 105.2 96.8 77.8 73.0 69.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 100 53 .594 105.2 56.8 99.99850 .00150 100.00000 Athletics 92 61 .527 96.8 65.2 .00150 93.58465 93.58615 Rangers 74 79 .451 77.8 84.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 69 84 .503 72.9 89.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 65 88 .484 69.4 92.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 97.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 95.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 98.4 89.1 84.8 82.9 57.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 94 60 .527 98.4 63.6 99.99985 .00015 100.00000 Nationals 83 68 .519 89.1 72.9 .00015 90.48284 90.48299 Mets 79 73 .504 84.4 77.6 .00000 4.25688 4.25688 Phillies 78 73 .504 83.4 78.6 .00000 2.22092 2.22092 Marlins 53 99 .420 57.0 105.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.3 87.9 86.2 76.8 69.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 86 67 .483 90.2 71.8 82.52408 13.53411 96.05820 Brewers 83 70 .516 87.5 74.5 8.83668 58.95969 67.79637 Cubs 82 71 .514 86.7 75.3 8.63923 30.28650 38.92574 Reds 72 81 .519 76.8 85.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 65 88 .476 69.3 92.7 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.9 82.7 77.9 73.6 70.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 98 55 .539 102.9 59.1 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 78 75 .495 82.6 79.4 .00000 .25891 .25890 Giants 74 79 .440 77.9 84.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 69 84 .498 73.5 88.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 66 87 .498 70.4 91.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
