Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Feb 28 21:28:44 EST 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.3 90.4 85.2 80.1 73.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 0 0 .574 89.9 72.1 34.96366 26.69158 61.65524 Red Sox 0 0 .568 88.6 73.4 29.17658 26.80428 55.98086 Yankees 0 0 .543 84.3 77.7 15.33353 21.70743 37.04097 Orioles 0 0 .538 83.3 78.7 13.10892 19.90841 33.01733 Blue Jays 0 0 .519 80.1 81.9 7.41732 13.94962 21.36693
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.3 84.5 78.7 73.0 65.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 0 0 .544 87.7 74.3 50.97728 8.71720 59.69447 Indians 0 0 .509 81.6 80.4 22.57498 8.80271 31.37769 Royals 0 0 .490 77.9 84.1 12.64841 5.77539 18.42380 White Sox 0 0 .484 77.2 84.8 11.35883 5.21788 16.57671 Twins 0 0 .440 69.2 92.8 2.44050 1.15437 3.59487
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.2 87.6 81.6 74.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 0 0 .557 89.2 72.8 42.87018 17.71603 60.58621 Angels 0 0 .535 85.1 76.9 24.77500 17.38282 42.15782 Rangers 0 0 .531 84.9 77.1 23.92985 17.16324 41.09309 Mariners 0 0 .494 78.1 83.9 7.86949 8.35213 16.22162 Astros 0 0 .425 65.8 96.2 .55548 .65691 1.21238 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.5 85.6 79.7 74.0 66.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 0 0 .533 88.6 73.4 49.72999 15.63598 65.36597 Braves 0 0 .510 84.4 77.6 28.71703 17.43751 46.15454 Mets 0 0 .472 77.7 84.3 10.13526 9.56648 19.70173 Phillies 0 0 .461 75.6 86.4 7.06023 7.18324 14.24347 Marlins 0 0 .447 73.1 88.9 4.35749 4.68241 9.03990
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.7 86.8 80.5 74.0 64.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 0 0 .560 92.5 69.5 61.84791 16.65516 78.50307 Pirates 0 0 .505 82.5 79.5 16.18139 20.02645 36.20784 Brewers 0 0 .490 80.3 81.7 11.53571 16.11022 27.64593 Reds 0 0 .486 79.3 82.7 9.79116 14.39275 24.18391 Cubs 0 0 .413 66.3 95.7 .64383 1.32445 1.96828
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.8 87.3 81.5 75.6 67.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .540 89.5 72.5 46.19655 20.81682 67.01337 Giants 0 0 .519 85.5 76.5 27.47325 22.30741 49.78066 Padres 0 0 .493 81.2 80.8 14.32706 16.82775 31.15481 Diamondbacks 0 0 .477 78.7 83.3 9.50831 12.74100 22.24931 Rockies 0 0 .440 71.8 90.2 2.49483 4.29237 6.78720 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
