Postseason Odds, Forecast version
<p>

<i>Playing the rest of the season a million times</i><p>
<i>with some help from my forecasts</i><p>

<i>by Clay Davenport</i>
<p>
See the <a href=http://www.claydavenport.com/stats/ps_odds.html>original version</a> of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

<p> *** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league *** <p>
<p> 


Generated Sat Aug 18 08:05:45 EDT 2018
<hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL East:  109.5 99.1 81.4 74.2 52.0
<a href=aleastpec.png>AL East</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=RedSoxpsoddspec.txt>Red Sox</a>           87   36   .581  109.4   52.6   98.34535    1.65463   99.99998
<a href=Yankeespsoddspec.txt>Yankees</a>           76   46   .567   99.2   62.8    1.65465   97.62235   99.27700
<a href=Devilpsoddspec.txt>Rays</a>              62   60   .488   81.2   80.8     .00000     .17887     .17887
<a href=Bluepsoddspec.txt>Blue Jays</a>         55   67   .485   74.4   87.6     .00000     .00010     .00010
<a href=Oriolespsoddspec.txt>Orioles</a>           36   86   .415   52.0  110.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.1 80.0 67.6 62.0 54.1
<a href=alcentpec.png>AL Central</a>        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Indianspsoddspec.txt>Indians</a>           70   51   .593   95.1   66.9   99.92700     .00408   99.93108
<a href=Twinspsoddspec.txt>Twins</a>             58   63   .522   80.0   82.0     .07300     .08600     .15900
<a href=Tigerspsoddspec.txt>Tigers</a>            50   73   .444   67.2   94.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
<a href=Whitepsoddspec.txt>White Sox</a>         45   76   .431   62.3   99.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
<a href=Royalspsoddspec.txt>Royals</a>            37   85   .430   54.2  107.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL west:  97.6 93.0 88.9 80.8 73.5
<a href=alwestpec.png>AL West</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Astrospsoddspec.txt>Astros</a>            74   48   .577   97.0   65.0   78.92976   17.63005   96.55981
<a href=Athleticspsoddspec.txt>Athletics</a>         73   49   .502   92.5   69.5   16.34006   55.75800   72.09805
<a href=Marinerspsoddspec.txt>Mariners</a>          70   53   .514   89.8   72.2    4.72373   26.89689   31.62061
<a href=Angelspsoddspec.txt>Angels</a>            62   62   .510   80.6   81.4     .00646     .16873     .17518
<a href=Rangerspsoddspec.txt>Rangers</a>           55   69   .502   73.7   88.3     .00000     .00031     .00031

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  99.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  92.8
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL East:  90.8 87.2 83.3 71.5 63.0
<a href=nleastpec.png>NL East</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Bravespsoddspec.txt>Braves</a>            68   53   .517   89.5   72.5   58.98405   17.04920   76.03325
<a href=Philliespsoddspec.txt>Phillies</a>          68   54   .492   87.8   74.2   34.22717   22.91301   57.14018
<a href=Nationalspsoddspec.txt>Nationals</a>         62   61   .548   84.1   77.9    6.78870   10.09250   16.88120
<a href=Metspsoddspec.txt>Mets</a>              52   69   .479   71.4   90.6     .00008     .00016     .00024
<a href=Marlinspsoddspec.txt>Marlins</a>           48   76   .404   63.1   98.9     .00000     .00000     .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.0 88.9 85.4 79.8 71.1
<a href=nlcentpec.png>NL Central</a>        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Cubspsoddspec.txt>Cubs</a>              71   50   .539   93.6   68.4   83.95573   12.78928   96.74502
<a href=Brewerspsoddspec.txt>Brewers</a>           68   56   .512   87.9   74.1   11.13260   46.19829   57.33089
<a href=Cardinalspsoddspec.txt>Cardinals</a>         67   56   .507   86.4   75.6    4.81193   32.76521   37.57715
<a href=Piratespsoddspec.txt>Pirates</a>           61   62   .484   80.0   82.0     .09973    1.29385    1.39358
<a href=Redspsoddspec.txt>Reds</a>              53   69   .451   71.1   90.9     .00000     .00007     .00007
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL West:  90.5 87.4 84.7 80.5 63.2
<a href=nlwestpec.png>NL West</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Diamondbackspsoddspec.txt>Diamondbacks</a>      68   55   .488   86.6   75.4   22.94383   18.37088   41.31471
<a href=Rockiespsoddspec.txt>Rockies</a>           66   56   .508   86.6   75.4   22.88239   18.88336   41.76575
<a href=Dodgerspsoddspec.txt>Dodgers</a>           66   57   .573   88.9   73.1   53.12179   17.59777   70.71956
<a href=Giantspsoddspec.txt>Giants</a>            61   62   .501   81.1   80.9    1.05199    2.04642    3.09841
<a href=Padrespsoddspec.txt>Padres</a>            48   77   .420   63.2   98.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.1
</pre>
<hr size=2>

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the <a
href=http://claydavenport.com/stats/standings.html>Adjusted
Standings Report</a>. <p>

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections
of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on
a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are
averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost
record.

The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based
on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can
immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. 

However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal
distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the
normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while
the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the <a
href=http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm>log5 method</a>.<p>


<b>W</b> and <b>L</b> are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.<p>

<b>Pct3</b> is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
regression-to-mean component.<p>

<b>Avg W</b> and <b>Avg L</b> are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.<p>

<b>Champions</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!<p>

<b>Wild Card</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As
with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
<p>

<b>Playoffs</b> is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.<p>