Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Apr 23 07:38:48 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.7 89.2 85.0 80.8 75.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 12 8 .544 86.3 75.7 22.94269 26.92712 49.86980 Blue Jays 11 9 .523 81.8 80.2 9.68339 17.30895 26.99234 Rays 10 10 .561 86.3 75.7 23.50633 26.51331 50.01964 Orioles 9 10 .531 82.0 80.0 9.92268 18.10288 28.02556 Red Sox 9 12 .583 88.6 73.4 33.94493 28.01087 61.95580
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.8 84.5 79.6 74.7 67.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 10 7 .551 89.1 72.9 60.99712 9.08224 70.07936 Royals 10 9 .493 78.4 83.6 10.16099 6.90359 17.06458 White Sox 10 11 .505 80.2 81.8 14.19766 9.15179 23.34945 Twins 9 10 .449 71.1 90.9 1.80795 1.25493 3.06288 Indians 9 11 .508 79.7 82.3 12.83628 8.40687 21.24315
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.2 85.7 80.2 73.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 13 7 .525 86.2 75.8 36.78400 15.80538 52.58937 Rangers 13 8 .527 86.3 75.7 37.30801 15.76101 53.06902 Angels 10 10 .525 83.4 78.6 23.05075 13.95682 37.00756 Mariners 7 13 .469 72.1 89.9 1.75847 1.81247 3.57094 Astros 7 14 .462 70.2 91.8 1.09878 1.00177 2.10054 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.6 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.7 86.4 80.5 75.3 69.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 13 7 .506 86.4 75.6 30.19305 27.91237 58.10543 Nationals 11 10 .548 90.6 71.4 58.43975 20.37364 78.81339 Phillies 10 10 .462 76.4 85.6 4.35177 8.02104 12.37281 Mets 10 10 .453 75.3 86.7 3.20472 6.63142 9.83613 Marlins 10 11 .464 76.1 85.9 3.81072 7.78082 11.59154
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.7 87.1 81.3 75.5 66.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 15 6 .497 86.0 76.0 23.94536 31.27490 55.22026 Cardinals 12 9 .557 92.1 69.9 62.65230 20.98908 83.64139 Reds 9 11 .497 80.1 81.9 7.60591 17.38416 24.99008 Pirates 9 12 .496 78.7 83.3 5.47699 13.73036 19.20735 Cubs 7 12 .432 68.0 94.0 .31944 1.11639 1.43583
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.1 84.2 79.8 75.3 69.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 12 9 .510 85.5 76.5 44.29525 12.27381 56.56906 Rockies 12 10 .486 81.0 81.0 20.95591 10.95224 31.90814 Giants 11 10 .487 80.9 81.1 20.06242 11.37602 31.43844 Padres 10 11 .472 77.8 84.2 11.16977 7.27081 18.44058 Diamondbacks 5 18 .482 73.2 88.8 3.51666 2.91293 6.42958 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
