Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Apr 25 08:03:54 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  100.8 91.5 83.4 75.5 67.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           17    5   .590   99.1   62.9   73.10607   21.01808   94.12415
Blue Jays         14    8   .506   83.4   78.6    4.27645   23.15977   27.43622
Yankees           13    9   .568   91.4   70.6   22.23415   48.99572   71.22987
Rays               8   13   .463   71.5   90.5     .12919    1.63725    1.76644
Orioles            6   17   .493   73.5   88.5     .25414    2.73250    2.98664

Average wins by position in AL Central:  103.5 85.9 70.7 64.1 57.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           12    9   .636  103.2   58.8   94.34902    4.28805   98.63706
Tigers             9   11   .413   65.9   96.1     .01438     .24827     .26265
Twins              8   10   .536   85.9   76.1    5.62227   34.97197   40.59424
White Sox          5   15   .406   60.5  101.5     .00200     .02360     .02560
Royals             5   16   .438   65.7   96.3     .01233     .20908     .22141

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.0 88.1 82.5 77.3 71.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            16    8   .512   85.4   76.6   14.21878   24.21451   38.43328
Astros            16    9   .588   95.5   66.5   74.92269   12.77630   87.69900
Athletics         13   11   .473   76.5   85.5    1.83138    4.90727    6.73864
Mariners          12   10   .511   82.3   79.7    7.58295   16.12976   23.71271
Rangers            8   17   .506   76.3   85.7    1.44421    4.68788    6.13209

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  93.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.6 86.5 80.6 73.1 59.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets              15    6   .478   84.3   77.7   20.09899   11.45561   31.55460
Phillies          14    8   .490   83.7   78.3   18.79883   10.31442   29.11324
Braves            12   10   .436   74.7   87.3    2.29713    1.79875    4.09587
Nationals         10   14   .562   90.7   71.3   58.78758   10.41829   69.20587
Marlins            6   17   .377   59.7  102.3     .01748     .00643     .02391

Average wins by position in NL Central:  98.9 91.3 85.3 77.0 63.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           15    9   .535   88.9   73.1   18.02164   34.10293   52.12457
Cardinals         13    9   .531   88.4   73.6   16.66550   32.34984   49.01534
Pirates           12   10   .473   78.3   83.7    1.69794    6.53372    8.23166
Cubs              11    9   .588   96.5   65.5   63.60237   22.68670   86.28907
Reds               5   18   .426   63.9   98.1     .01255     .05473     .06728

Average wins by position in NL West:  97.2 89.6 83.6 76.3 58.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Diamondbacks      16    6   .508   88.3   73.7   22.34255   27.31961   49.66216
Rockies           13   12   .519   84.6   77.4   11.07743   17.96718   29.04461
Dodgers           11   11   .586   94.8   67.2   63.71267   18.04634   81.75900
Giants            11   12   .479   79.0   83.0    2.86682    6.94351    9.81033
Padres             9   16   .360   58.1  103.9     .00053     .00196     .00249

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.5
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.