Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Sep 28 07:53:21 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.0 93.0 87.0 79.0 79.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 98 64 .547 98.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Yankees 93 68 .544 93.0 68.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Red Sox 87 75 .558 87.0 75.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Orioles 79 82 .495 79.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 79 83 .510 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.0 84.0 77.0 76.0 69.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 85 77 .533 85.0 77.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 White Sox 84 78 .490 84.0 78.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Twins 77 85 .517 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 76 86 .503 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 69 93 .462 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 81.0 80.0 76.0 64.0 62.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 81 81 .528 81.0 81.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rangers 80 82 .510 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 76 86 .578 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 64 98 .409 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 62 100 .427 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.6 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.0 88.0 80.0 77.0 74.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 94 68 .521 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Phillies 88 74 .567 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Marlins 80 82 .452 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 77 85 .440 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 74 88 .506 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 103.0 89.0 82.0 77.0 75.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 103 59 .583 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cubs 89 73 .528 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Pirates 82 80 .548 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 77 85 .472 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 75 87 .438 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.0 91.0 86.0 65.0 58.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 100 62 .635 100.0 62.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Padres 91 71 .517 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 86 76 .517 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 65 97 .426 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 58 104 .441 58.0 104.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 88.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
