Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Feb 9 07:52:17 EST 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.9 87.6 82.1 76.6 68.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays          0    0   .563   89.4   72.6   44.82550   18.11162   62.93713
Red Sox            0    0   .530   83.2   78.8   19.12432   16.51512   35.63943
Yankees            0    0   .527   82.5   79.5   17.11570   15.53235   32.64806
Rays               0    0   .523   82.0   80.0   15.84237   14.78434   30.62671
Orioles            0    0   .475   73.0   89.0    3.09210    4.08220    7.17431

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.7 85.7 80.5 75.2 68.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians            0    0   .535   85.3   76.7   35.15422   12.36892   47.52314
White Sox          0    0   .528   83.6   78.4   27.84099   11.97671   39.81770
Tigers             0    0   .509   80.5   81.5   17.35227    9.49512   26.84739
Twins              0    0   .501   79.3   82.7   14.55565    8.40016   22.95581
Royals             0    0   .470   73.4   88.6    5.09688    3.44954    8.54641

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.6 88.6 83.3 77.9 70.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mariners           0    0   .565   88.8   73.2   37.73711   21.95250   59.68961
Astros             0    0   .549   85.8   76.2   25.02137   21.23258   46.25394
Angels             0    0   .543   84.3   77.7   19.93046   19.57125   39.50171
Athletics          0    0   .525   81.4   80.6   12.76561   15.36273   28.12833
Rangers            0    0   .490   75.8   86.2    4.54546    7.16486   11.71032

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.3 88.9 78.6 69.2 60.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets               0    0   .549   93.7   68.3   53.45587   23.84859   77.30446
Nationals          0    0   .536   91.6   70.4   40.99685   28.02435   69.02120
Marlins            0    0   .460   78.0   84.0    4.90333    9.45248   14.35581
Braves             0    0   .395   66.6   95.4     .38852     .88976    1.27828
Phillies           0    0   .387   65.0   97.0     .25543     .60900     .86443

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.5 88.6 81.3 72.6 63.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs               0    0   .560   94.0   68.0   59.41109   18.07054   77.48163
Cardinals          0    0   .512   85.9   76.1   20.44250   22.28674   42.72924
Pirates            0    0   .508   85.2   76.8   18.42454   21.12677   39.55132
Brewers            0    0   .421   69.7   92.3     .98779    1.91164    2.89943
Reds               0    0   .415   68.7   93.3     .73408    1.47169    2.20576

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.9 89.7 80.7 72.5 61.7
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .562   94.6   67.4   54.94737   24.61884   79.56621
Giants             0    0   .546   91.6   70.4   37.89070   30.66107   68.55177
Diamondbacks       0    0   .472   78.7   83.3    4.84483   10.98691   15.83174
Padres             0    0   .449   74.7   87.3    2.16662    5.59071    7.75733
Rockies            0    0   .386   63.9   98.1     .15048     .45092     .60140

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  94.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.