Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Jul 8 07:53:07 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 91.7 87.6 84.0 80.1 75.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 53 38 .488 87.5 74.5 31.42480 50.46970 81.89450 Yankees 49 41 .556 89.4 72.6 51.82320 38.57390 90.39710 Rays 49 42 .510 84.8 77.2 13.99030 47.84910 61.83940 Red Sox 47 45 .485 80.4 81.6 2.39470 20.27700 22.67170 Orioles 40 49 .494 76.2 85.8 .36700 5.01440 5.38140
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.8 83.3 79.1 75.0 57.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 58 34 .515 94.7 67.3 97.28760 2.06310 99.35070 Royals 44 48 .486 79.0 83.0 .65310 13.86580 14.51890 Twins 43 47 .515 81.0 81.0 1.69110 25.43100 27.12210 Guardians 41 48 .481 77.5 84.5 .36820 8.91680 9.28500 White Sox 30 61 .393 57.5 104.5 .00000 .00020 .00020
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.5 86.2 79.5 75.0 69.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 55 36 .525 92.9 69.1 84.00020 14.03820 98.03840 Mariners 48 42 .531 86.3 75.7 15.12130 58.70840 73.82970 Angels 44 46 .444 75.9 86.1 .20950 4.38000 4.58950 Rangers 44 47 .483 78.1 83.9 .66330 10.16590 10.82920 Athletics 37 55 .476 70.5 91.5 .00570 .24650 .25220 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.4 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.3 88.7 80.1 72.6 67.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 53 38 .563 93.0 69.0 68.62490 26.92060 95.54550 Mets 52 39 .532 89.7 72.3 30.62160 52.95120 83.57280 Marlins 41 48 .409 70.1 91.9 .00190 .05920 .06110 Braves 39 50 .560 80.0 82.0 .74840 9.78550 10.53390 Nationals 37 53 .472 70.5 91.5 .00320 .07320 .07640
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.5 88.2 84.1 79.4 70.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 54 36 .566 95.0 67.0 85.78860 12.27190 98.06050 Brewers 51 40 .514 86.6 75.4 8.95980 51.10000 60.05980 Cardinals 48 43 .512 84.8 77.2 4.51340 39.54420 44.05760 Reds 46 45 .496 80.6 81.4 .73730 12.73240 13.46970 Pirates 38 54 .467 70.7 91.3 .00090 .07420 .07510
Average wins by position in NL West: 99.8 87.3 83.4 79.4 47.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 56 36 .622 99.8 62.2 98.33840 1.54240 99.88080 Giants 50 42 .499 84.1 77.9 .82930 36.38910 37.21840 Padres 48 42 .483 82.9 79.1 .39740 27.48440 27.88180 Diamondbacks 45 46 .535 83.1 78.9 .43490 29.07170 29.50660 Rockies 21 70 .381 47.5 114.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
