Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Sep 28 08:01:03 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.5 89.7 87.2 83.6 67.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           92   65   .524   94.5   67.5   99.43260     .56740  100.00000
Blue Jays         87   70   .562   89.7   72.3     .56740   97.10438   97.67178
Orioles           85   72   .517   87.3   74.7     .00000   55.36195   55.36194
Yankees           81   76   .499   83.6   78.4     .00000     .33509     .33509
Rays              65   92   .507   67.3   94.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.5 86.7 82.5 78.7 58.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           91   66   .540   93.5   68.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Tigers            84   73   .515   86.7   75.3     .00000   33.65923   33.65923
Royals            80   77   .493   82.5   79.5     .00000     .00076     .00076
White Sox         76   81   .499   78.7   83.3     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             56  101   .503   58.3  103.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.2 86.1 84.7 73.0 69.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           93   65   .512   95.2   66.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mariners          83   74   .549   85.8   76.2     .00000   10.14334   10.14334
Astros            83   75   .564   85.1   76.9     .00000    2.82786    2.82786
Angels            71   87   .506   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         67   90   .504   69.1   92.9     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.9 86.2 79.8 72.2 66.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         92   65   .517   94.9   67.1  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mets              84   74   .525   86.2   75.8     .00000   87.55547   87.55547
Marlins           78   79   .496   79.8   81.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          70   87   .418   72.2   89.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
Braves            64   92   .409   66.4   94.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.7 84.8 79.4 72.8 68.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs             101   56   .544  103.7   58.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Cardinals         82   75   .496   84.8   77.2     .00000   37.03952   37.03952
Pirates           77   80   .509   79.4   82.6     .00000     .00000     .00000
Brewers           71   87   .440   72.8   89.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              66   91   .426   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.6 85.7 75.4 69.4 67.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           90   67   .554   92.6   69.4  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Giants            83   74   .515   85.7   76.3     .00000   75.40502   75.40502
Rockies           73   84   .443   75.4   86.6     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            67   90   .449   69.2   92.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      65   92   .458   67.5   94.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  86.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.