Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Jul 30 08:01:41 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.0 88.2 84.8 79.7 69.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           58   44   .517   87.8   74.2   28.39193   34.34462   62.73655
Blue Jays         58   45   .562   89.9   72.1   51.30713   29.04689   80.35402
Red Sox           56   45   .524   86.5   75.5   18.63971   31.61830   50.25801
Yankees           52   50   .499   80.4   81.6    1.65954    5.48539    7.14493
Rays              40   61   .507   70.0   92.0     .00170     .00769     .00939

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.8 85.5 80.3 76.0 67.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           58   42   .540   91.2   70.8   81.91694    8.35277   90.26972
Tigers            55   48   .515   85.3   76.7   16.02038   23.79570   39.81607
White Sox         50   53   .499   79.0   83.0    1.38316    2.37424    3.75740
Royals            49   53   .493   77.8   84.2     .67858    1.45562    2.13419
Twins             39   63   .503   68.1   93.9     .00095     .00058     .00153

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.1 86.9 82.8 76.8 72.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           60   44   .512   89.2   72.8   55.85956   21.03596   76.89552
Astros            55   47   .564   87.3   74.7   33.68852   26.06262   59.75114
Mariners          51   50   .549   83.8   78.2   10.24155   15.94190   26.18345
Athletics         47   56   .504   75.2   86.8     .14103     .30610     .44714
Angels            46   57   .506   74.2   87.8     .06934     .17162     .24096

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.0 87.9 83.4 71.4 60.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         61   42   .517   93.5   68.5   83.32923   10.98793   94.31716
Marlins           55   48   .496   85.3   76.7    6.67427   25.01268   31.68695
Mets              53   49   .525   86.4   75.6    9.99523   32.10884   42.10408
Phillies          47   58   .418   71.3   90.7     .00127     .01353     .01480
Braves            36   67   .409   60.9  101.1     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.9 87.7 83.0 73.0 66.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              62   40   .544   95.7   66.3   91.52455    6.28246   97.80701
Cardinals         56   47   .496   86.3   75.7    5.93070   34.94770   40.87840
Pirates           52   49   .509   84.5   77.5    2.54180   21.73454   24.27634
Brewers           45   56   .440   72.6   89.4     .00285     .04086     .04371
Reds              41   61   .426   66.7   95.3     .00010     .00037     .00047

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.8 88.6 78.2 72.6 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Giants            59   44   .515   90.0   72.0   34.41147   42.11439   76.52585
Dodgers           58   45   .554   92.4   69.6   65.41520   25.69958   91.11478
Rockies           51   52   .443   77.7   84.3     .17092    1.04167    1.21258
Padres            44   59   .449   71.6   90.4     .00213     .01353     .01567
Diamondbacks      42   61   .458   69.7   92.3     .00028     .00192     .00220

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.7
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.2

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.