Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun May 17 07:53:20 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.4 87.7 81.8 77.3 72.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 29 15 .503 86.7 75.3 15.33730 61.32540 76.66270 Yankees 28 18 .584 95.5 66.5 80.76330 17.52620 98.28950 Blue Jays 20 25 .502 76.4 85.6 .86880 16.45550 17.32430 Orioles 20 26 .511 77.9 84.1 1.22580 22.84050 24.06630 Red Sox 19 26 .520 78.8 83.2 1.80480 27.22420 29.02900
Average wins by position in AL Central: 86.8 81.5 77.5 73.4 68.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 25 22 .491 81.6 80.4 34.13450 15.81200 49.94650 White Sox 23 22 .433 72.0 90.0 3.29000 3.00240 6.29240 Tigers 20 26 .542 83.0 79.0 45.31240 14.82140 60.13380 Twins 20 26 .466 73.4 88.6 4.60950 4.35870 8.96820 Royals 19 27 .504 77.3 84.7 12.65360 10.99450 23.64810
Average wins by position in AL west: 90.6 84.6 80.2 75.4 66.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 23 22 .500 81.0 81.0 13.48690 28.75480 42.24170 Mariners 22 25 .584 88.6 73.4 63.47460 22.53380 86.00840 Rangers 21 24 .511 81.5 80.5 14.96560 31.00160 45.96720 Astros 19 28 .526 79.1 82.9 7.94120 22.69980 30.64100 Angels 16 30 .448 66.6 95.4 .13170 .64920 .78090 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 88.9 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 85.3 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 83.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.3 86.6 80.7 75.3 69.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 31 15 .547 94.4 67.6 80.68750 14.47040 95.15790 Phillies 23 23 .545 85.4 76.6 14.02540 44.91660 58.94200 Nationals 23 23 .435 72.5 89.5 .27720 2.94450 3.22170 Marlins 21 25 .474 74.7 87.3 .67880 6.14350 6.82230 Mets 19 26 .534 80.3 81.7 4.33110 22.48980 26.82090
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.4 88.3 83.8 79.5 74.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 29 17 .544 92.2 69.8 61.22310 29.15090 90.37400 Cardinals 27 18 .462 80.6 81.4 4.76470 23.71630 28.48100 Brewers 26 17 .523 87.1 74.9 23.90930 44.87990 68.78920 Pirates 24 22 .520 82.9 79.1 8.50270 33.93990 42.44260 Reds 24 22 .473 77.3 84.7 1.60020 12.10140 13.70160
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 84.9 78.9 73.0 64.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 28 18 .631 101.3 60.7 97.68330 2.00480 99.68810 Padres 27 18 .478 81.3 80.7 1.28200 30.56810 31.85010 Diamondbacks 21 23 .503 80.7 81.3 .97020 27.66960 28.63980 Giants 19 27 .471 73.8 88.2 .06150 4.78200 4.84350 Rockies 18 28 .417 66.0 96.0 .00300 .22230 .22530 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.5 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
