Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Sep 15 07:27:19 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.4 84.7 82.1 78.2 72.2
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           89   60   .502   95.4   66.6   99.99480     .00482   99.99962
Blue Jays         77   71   .509   84.1   77.9     .00505    5.14125    5.14630
Yankees           76   72   .486   82.7   79.3     .00015     .91473     .91488
Rays              72   78   .522   78.2   83.8     .00000     .00006     .00006
Red Sox           66   84   .522   72.2   89.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.5 87.6 82.8 74.2 69.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            83   66   .540   90.2   71.8   78.75108   15.47012   94.22121
Royals            81   67   .498   87.9   74.1   21.14533   42.83239   63.97773
Indians           76   72   .493   82.9   79.1     .10358    1.49079    1.59437
White Sox         68   81   .504   74.2   87.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             63   86   .478   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.6 90.7 86.7 72.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            93   56   .516   99.6   62.4   99.96448     .03552  100.00000
Athletics         83   66   .548   90.6   71.4     .03518   96.81937   96.85455
Mariners          80   68   .518   86.8   75.2     .00033   37.29097   37.29130
Astros            66   83   .490   72.6   89.4     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           57   92   .467   62.8   99.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.8
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.8 82.0 79.2 77.1 74.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         85   63   .547   92.8   69.2   99.99685     .00232   99.99918
Braves            75   74   .499   81.8   80.2     .00300    5.40388    5.40688
Marlins           72   76   .489   78.7   83.3     .00015     .05606     .05621
Mets              72   78   .475   77.6   84.4     .00000     .00424     .00424
Phillies          69   80   .447   74.6   87.4     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.5 85.9 83.5 76.7 71.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         83   67   .522   89.5   72.5   92.13960    7.14451   99.28410
Pirates           79   70   .506   85.5   76.5    5.59965   60.99370   66.59335
Brewers           78   72   .523   84.1   77.9    2.26075   27.86932   30.13007
Reds              71   79   .483   76.7   85.3     .00000     .00197     .00197
Cubs              65   84   .477   71.3   90.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.0 88.4 75.0 67.5 65.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           85   64   .526   91.9   70.1   87.26540   12.72643   99.99183
Giants            82   67   .496   88.6   73.4   12.73460   85.79757   98.53217
Padres            68   80   .464   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      61   88   .451   66.8   95.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           59   90   .504   65.7   96.3     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.5
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.