Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Apr 30 08:02:39 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.0 86.3 82.0 77.8 72.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           14    8   .483   77.9   84.1    7.17771    7.83572   15.01343
Red Sox           13   10   .541   85.6   76.4   32.26924   18.37552   50.64476
Blue Jays         11   13   .558   86.3   75.7   36.05620   18.72365   54.77984
Rays              10   12   .529   81.2   80.8   14.52076   13.07760   27.59836
Yankees            8   13   .524   79.2   82.8    9.97610    9.63952   19.61562

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.0 85.8 80.4 75.3 68.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
White Sox         16    8   .559   92.1   69.9   69.58925   13.32534   82.91460
Tigers            12   10   .507   81.0   81.0   10.83128   15.25954   26.09081
Royals            12   10   .454   72.9   89.1    1.59870    2.86248    4.46118
Indians           10   10   .519   82.6   79.4   14.81192   19.04691   33.85883
Twins              7   16   .510   75.8   86.2    3.16886    5.94630    9.11515

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.2 86.7 82.7 78.7 73.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           13   10   .505   80.0   82.0   10.36406   11.58137   21.94543
Mariners          12   10   .555   87.0   75.0   39.22810   18.79803   58.02613
Athletics         12   12   .530   81.9   80.1   15.70282   14.71811   30.42094
Angels            11   12   .535   81.5   80.5   14.50404   14.07400   28.57804
Astros             7   16   .571   83.2   78.8   20.20098   16.73590   36.93688

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.7 90.0 80.9 69.4 59.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         15    7   .531   93.1   68.9   47.25356   30.48038   77.73394
Mets              14    7   .533   93.2   68.8   47.56618   30.20131   77.76749
Phillies          13   10   .381   68.5   93.5     .09289     .45747     .55036
Marlins           11   11   .470   81.6   80.4    5.08216   13.73649   18.81865
Braves             5   18   .378   61.0  101.0     .00522     .02262     .02783

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.8 89.0 80.8 69.7 61.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              17    5   .601  103.5   57.5   92.52608    5.96638   98.49247
Pirates           14    9   .509   86.6   74.4    5.53843   39.90038   45.43882
Cardinals         12   11   .492   82.9   79.1    1.92110   21.56162   23.48272
Reds               9   14   .389   64.6   97.4     .00260     .11067     .11327
Brewers            8   14   .410   67.1   93.9     .01178     .36872     .38050

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.1 88.1 81.3 70.7 62.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           12   12   .557   92.0   70.0   56.67069   17.83500   74.50569
Giants            12   12   .529   87.9   74.1   28.82088   23.06548   51.88636
Diamondbacks      12   13   .503   84.0   78.0   14.18836   15.75799   29.94635
Rockies           10   12   .402   67.8   93.2     .21850     .36882     .58732
Padres             8   15   .408   66.2   95.8     .10158     .16667     .26825

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.