Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue May 31 08:02:37 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.2 87.0 83.0 79.2 74.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           31   20   .541   88.8   73.2   47.87920   24.18265   72.06186
Orioles           28   21   .483   79.5   82.5    5.97695   10.66807   16.64502
Blue Jays         27   26   .558   86.9   75.1   32.28110   28.23217   60.51327
Yankees           24   26   .524   80.7   81.3    7.78215   13.84874   21.63089
Rays              22   27   .529   79.7   82.3    6.08060   11.41153   17.49213

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.0 84.1 79.5 75.0 68.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            28   22   .454   76.8   85.2    5.13995    4.04015    9.18010
White Sox         27   25   .559   87.6   74.4   59.03569   11.14677   70.18246
Indians           26   23   .519   83.2   78.8   25.37906   13.94116   39.32022
Tigers            24   26   .507   78.9   83.1    9.70322    6.56556   16.26877
Twins             15   35   .510   71.0   91.0     .74209     .57850    1.32059

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.5 86.3 82.6 78.9 74.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           30   21   .505   84.0   78.0   20.40600   20.42877   40.83477
Mariners          29   21   .555   88.5   73.5   51.61001   19.18301   70.79302
Angels            23   28   .535   78.8   83.2    5.45170    8.66194   14.11365
Astros            23   29   .571   83.3   78.7   17.38350   19.01949   36.40300
Athletics         23   29   .530   78.7   83.3    5.14878    8.09148   13.24026

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.4 89.9 81.3 70.2 59.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         31   21   .531   93.4   68.6   53.99427   29.48303   83.47729
Mets              29   21   .533   92.1   69.9   42.73987   34.10220   76.84207
Marlins           26   25   .470   81.7   80.3    3.22907   10.76563   13.99470
Phillies          26   25   .381   70.0   92.0     .03670     .20066     .23736
Braves            15   35   .378   59.9  102.1     .00010     .00066     .00076

Average wins by position in NL Central:  105.3 89.3 81.8 69.7 60.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              35   14   .601  105.2   56.8   97.25047    2.44418   99.69464
Pirates           29   21   .509   87.6   74.4    2.24072   45.08263   47.32335
Cardinals         27   25   .492   83.3   78.7     .50748   19.42743   19.93491
Brewers           23   28   .410   69.2   92.8     .00113     .15558     .15672
Reds              17   34   .389   61.1  100.9     .00020     .00140     .00160

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.0 88.6 80.1 71.6 64.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Giants            32   21   .529   91.6   70.4   49.21912   25.77123   74.99034
Dodgers           27   25   .557   91.4   70.6   47.73378   26.45747   74.19125
Rockies           23   27   .402   70.3   91.7     .07899     .19308     .27207
Diamondbacks      23   30   .503   80.0   82.0    2.95552    5.88669    8.84220
Padres            20   32   .408   66.7   95.3     .01259     .02815     .04074

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.