Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Jan 22 12:37:32 EST 2023
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.6 90.7 85.5 80.1 72.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 0 0 .564 90.4 71.6 34.97530 35.03570 70.01100 Yankees 0 0 .561 89.9 72.1 32.75260 35.52610 68.27870 Rays 0 0 .531 85.1 76.9 15.60000 31.16250 46.76250 Red Sox 0 0 .527 84.1 77.9 13.35360 29.15020 42.50380 Orioles 0 0 .483 76.8 85.2 3.31850 12.60060 15.91910
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.7 87.1 78.9 70.3 61.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .556 90.6 71.4 49.09600 23.88240 72.97840 Guardians 0 0 .546 89.0 73.0 40.05300 26.30760 66.36060 White Sox 0 0 .490 79.6 82.4 9.48380 15.51260 24.99640 Tigers 0 0 .423 68.3 93.7 .91500 2.05350 2.96850 Royals 0 0 .410 65.8 96.2 .45220 1.10750 1.55970
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.1 87.9 81.8 74.9 61.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 0 0 .568 92.4 69.6 56.69520 21.44290 78.13810 Mariners 0 0 .522 84.5 77.5 19.06470 25.59280 44.65750 Angels 0 0 .510 82.5 79.5 13.88520 21.98210 35.86730 Rangers 0 0 .499 80.6 81.4 10.23410 18.22660 28.46070 Athletics 0 0 .390 62.0 100.0 .12080 .41690 .53770 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 89.6 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.2 91.7 85.1 76.7 64.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 0 0 .570 92.5 69.5 38.42330 41.96490 80.38820 Mets 0 0 .567 92.1 69.9 35.98390 42.83970 78.82360 Phillies 0 0 .547 88.7 73.3 22.17760 44.21970 66.39730 Marlins 0 0 .485 78.1 83.9 3.29480 18.05190 21.34670 Nationals 0 0 .408 65.2 96.8 .12040 1.43220 1.55260
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.4 85.6 77.4 70.3 62.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 0 0 .548 90.0 72.0 53.08250 20.60650 73.68900 Cardinals 0 0 .533 87.5 74.5 38.56440 24.56140 63.12580 Cubs 0 0 .462 75.5 86.5 5.75860 9.21360 14.97220 Pirates 0 0 .424 69.0 93.0 1.44340 2.70520 4.14860 Reds 0 0 .419 68.0 94.0 1.15110 2.21860 3.36970
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.9 88.7 80.1 72.0 63.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .575 94.2 67.8 58.44400 27.04750 85.49150 Padres 0 0 .551 89.9 72.1 33.70360 37.86660 71.57020 Giants 0 0 .489 79.5 82.5 6.30750 19.82050 26.12800 Diamondbacks 0 0 .443 71.6 90.4 1.19760 5.56630 6.76390 Rockies 0 0 .415 66.7 95.3 .34730 1.88540 2.23270 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 94.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.8 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
