Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sat Aug 15 07:53:17 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 90.7 86.3 79.9 76.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 74 47 .541 95.6 66.4 84.17580 15.81880 99.99460 Yankees 68 54 .554 90.5 71.5 13.73470 85.59590 99.33060 Red Sox 65 57 .551 86.8 75.2 2.08630 90.41320 92.49950 Blue Jays 60 64 .492 78.4 83.6 .00090 11.09680 11.09770 Orioles 59 63 .482 77.7 84.3 .00230 7.98310 7.98540
Average wins by position in AL Central: 84.6 81.9 79.7 77.1 67.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox 63 58 .487 82.7 79.3 46.75250 13.13420 59.88670 Tigers 60 62 .517 80.5 81.5 20.16960 11.80170 31.97130 Twins 60 63 .496 79.4 82.6 12.71880 8.86520 21.58400 Guardians 59 64 .528 80.7 81.3 20.35830 13.41580 33.77410 Royals 50 73 .446 67.5 94.5 .00080 .00100 .00180
Average wins by position in AL west: 85.3 81.6 78.2 66.0 62.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 63 60 .549 84.5 77.5 70.87130 11.30660 82.17790 Rangers 60 63 .535 81.1 80.9 19.14390 20.01070 39.15460 Mariners 57 66 .573 79.4 82.6 9.98440 10.55700 20.54140 Athletics 48 74 .437 64.8 97.2 .00030 .00000 .00030 Angels 48 75 .428 63.6 98.4 .00010 .00000 .00010 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 83.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.9 86.9 80.7 76.6 71.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 73 49 .517 92.6 69.4 86.53600 12.39980 98.93580 Phillies 65 58 .574 87.1 74.9 13.29430 64.44300 77.73730 Marlins 62 61 .475 80.1 81.9 .16350 6.77510 6.93860 Nationals 60 64 .441 76.8 85.2 .00610 .71880 .72490 Mets 54 69 .480 72.4 89.6 .00010 .01220 .01230
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.6 91.6 82.2 79.0 75.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 75 48 .562 96.0 66.0 77.59560 22.35230 99.94790 Cubs 72 51 .531 92.2 69.8 22.39730 76.28440 98.68170 Cardinals 61 61 .470 79.2 82.8 .00230 3.92190 3.92420 Pirates 60 64 .543 80.6 81.4 .00390 7.83800 7.84190 Reds 59 62 .474 77.3 84.7 .00090 1.31620 1.31710
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.8 86.9 83.1 68.8 65.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 74 49 .620 98.8 63.2 99.69880 .29780 99.99660 Padres 66 57 .507 85.6 76.4 .23600 60.33750 60.57350 Diamondbacks 65 58 .507 84.4 77.6 .06520 43.30300 43.36820 Giants 50 72 .450 67.4 94.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 49 73 .439 66.3 95.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.2 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
