Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sat Jan 24 09:14:11 EST 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.6 90.2 85.4 80.6 74.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .555 88.2 73.8 28.86800 35.65720 64.52520 Red Sox 0 0 .552 87.5 74.5 26.16390 35.47630 61.64020 Orioles 0 0 .540 85.7 76.3 19.91950 33.83970 53.75920 Blue Jays 0 0 .531 84.0 78.0 15.15830 30.84410 46.00240 Rays 0 0 .515 81.6 80.4 9.89030 25.33590 35.22620
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.5 86.5 80.3 73.4 59.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 0 0 .558 90.3 71.7 53.44210 20.92970 74.37180 Royals 0 0 .521 84.1 77.9 23.22050 24.39080 47.61130 Twins 0 0 .503 80.9 81.1 13.96040 19.41440 33.37480 Guardians 0 0 .490 78.5 83.5 9.24000 15.02590 24.26590 White Sox 0 0 .386 60.8 101.2 .13700 .35130 .48830
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.4 84.8 79.1 73.4 65.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .543 87.7 74.3 49.62740 16.00160 65.62900 Astros 0 0 .514 82.9 79.1 25.87750 17.66950 43.54700 Rangers 0 0 .491 78.7 83.3 13.36380 12.65890 26.02270 Athletics 0 0 .475 76.0 86.0 8.33620 8.94270 17.27890 Angels 0 0 .445 70.5 91.5 2.79510 3.46200 6.25710 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.6 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.4 89.7 82.7 73.1 63.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 0 0 .562 90.5 71.5 37.74530 39.97880 77.72410 Phillies 0 0 .561 90.3 71.7 36.66300 40.41450 77.07750 Braves 0 0 .544 87.3 74.7 24.13090 41.56900 65.69990 Marlins 0 0 .448 71.1 90.9 1.05360 6.74980 7.80340 Nationals 0 0 .426 67.2 94.8 .40720 3.00900 3.41620
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.8 85.0 79.9 74.7 67.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .525 84.8 77.2 35.82150 20.05800 55.87950 Brewers 0 0 .511 82.2 79.8 24.53130 19.27120 43.80250 Reds 0 0 .506 81.3 80.7 21.53800 18.35600 39.89400 Pirates 0 0 .491 78.6 83.4 14.05810 14.78650 28.84460 Cardinals 0 0 .451 71.9 90.1 4.05110 5.89720 9.94830
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 86.8 79.7 73.6 66.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .620 100.7 61.3 87.74300 9.19980 96.94280 Diamondbacks 0 0 .513 82.2 79.8 6.80390 35.85480 42.65870 Giants 0 0 .483 77.0 85.0 2.49410 19.31530 21.80940 Padres 0 0 .482 76.8 85.2 2.32900 18.78320 21.11220 Rockies 0 0 .446 70.8 91.2 .63000 6.75690 7.38690 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.3 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
