Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Mar 29 07:53:15 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.4 89.9 85.0 80.0 73.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 3 0 .559 90.2 71.8 38.91370 34.43700 73.35070 Blue Jays 2 0 .525 83.7 78.3 14.30180 30.12540 44.42720 Red Sox 1 1 .546 86.4 75.6 22.48640 34.77900 57.26540 Orioles 1 1 .537 85.0 77.0 17.79330 32.76930 50.56260 Rays 0 2 .509 79.4 82.6 6.50480 19.87300 26.37780
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.4 84.5 78.2 71.8 62.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 2 1 .543 88.3 73.7 53.54420 15.76580 69.31000 Guardians 2 1 .474 76.9 85.1 9.42120 10.00560 19.42680 Twins 1 1 .472 75.9 86.1 7.93350 8.86020 16.79370 Royals 0 2 .523 83.7 78.3 28.52690 18.71800 47.24490 White Sox 0 2 .411 64.3 97.7 .57420 .74550 1.31970
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.5 87.8 81.1 74.2 65.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Angels 2 1 .435 68.8 93.2 .53080 2.92410 3.45490 Rangers 1 1 .520 83.1 78.9 12.40810 29.58020 41.98830 Mariners 1 2 .598 95.4 66.6 70.15770 18.98670 89.14440 Astros 1 2 .530 84.1 77.9 14.39380 32.20160 46.59540 Athletics 0 2 .478 74.9 87.1 2.50960 10.22860 12.73820 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.3 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.6 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.9 88.3 82.0 75.1 66.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 2 0 .560 91.1 70.9 48.69160 31.80430 80.49590 Braves 2 0 .523 84.9 77.1 20.15930 35.66940 55.82870 Marlins 2 0 .460 74.1 87.9 2.68560 11.12260 13.80820 Phillies 1 1 .541 86.8 75.2 27.12960 37.56160 64.69120 Nationals 1 1 .446 71.2 90.8 1.33390 6.50710 7.84100
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.2 85.7 80.1 74.6 67.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 2 0 .516 83.8 78.2 25.69230 25.89340 51.58570 Cardinals 2 0 .449 72.6 89.4 3.41140 7.41510 10.82650 Cubs 1 1 .550 88.8 73.2 51.31530 22.05960 73.37490 Reds 1 1 .481 77.1 84.9 8.45130 14.67980 23.13110 Pirates 0 2 .496 78.7 83.3 11.12970 17.66980 28.79950
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.1 86.5 79.3 72.5 60.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 3 0 .617 101.6 60.4 90.69480 7.36150 98.05630 Padres 1 2 .493 78.3 83.7 2.55230 23.95570 26.50800 Rockies 0 2 .395 61.5 100.5 .02930 .65490 .68420 Diamondbacks 0 3 .511 81.0 81.0 4.16540 33.63600 37.80140 Giants 0 3 .498 78.3 83.7 2.55820 24.00920 26.56740 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.6 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.6 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
