Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Jul 8 07:53:07 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.7 87.6 84.0 80.1 75.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays         53   38   .488   87.5   74.5   31.42480   50.46970   81.89450
Yankees           49   41   .556   89.4   72.6   51.82320   38.57390   90.39710
Rays              49   42   .510   84.8   77.2   13.99030   47.84910   61.83940
Red Sox           47   45   .485   80.4   81.6    2.39470   20.27700   22.67170
Orioles           40   49   .494   76.2   85.8     .36700    5.01440    5.38140

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.8 83.3 79.1 75.0 57.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            58   34   .515   94.7   67.3   97.28760    2.06310   99.35070
Royals            44   48   .486   79.0   83.0     .65310   13.86580   14.51890
Twins             43   47   .515   81.0   81.0    1.69110   25.43100   27.12210
Guardians         41   48   .481   77.5   84.5     .36820    8.91680    9.28500
White Sox         30   61   .393   57.5  104.5     .00000     .00020     .00020

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.5 86.2 79.5 75.0 69.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            55   36   .525   92.9   69.1   84.00020   14.03820   98.03840
Mariners          48   42   .531   86.3   75.7   15.12130   58.70840   73.82970
Angels            44   46   .444   75.9   86.1     .20950    4.38000    4.58950
Rangers           44   47   .483   78.1   83.9     .66330   10.16590   10.82920
Athletics         37   55   .476   70.5   91.5     .00570     .24650     .25220

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.4
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  84.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.3 88.7 80.1 72.6 67.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Phillies          53   38   .563   93.0   69.0   68.62490   26.92060   95.54550
Mets              52   39   .532   89.7   72.3   30.62160   52.95120   83.57280
Marlins           41   48   .409   70.1   91.9     .00190     .05920     .06110
Braves            39   50   .560   80.0   82.0     .74840    9.78550   10.53390
Nationals         37   53   .472   70.5   91.5     .00320     .07320     .07640

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.5 88.2 84.1 79.4 70.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              54   36   .566   95.0   67.0   85.78860   12.27190   98.06050
Brewers           51   40   .514   86.6   75.4    8.95980   51.10000   60.05980
Cardinals         48   43   .512   84.8   77.2    4.51340   39.54420   44.05760
Reds              46   45   .496   80.6   81.4     .73730   12.73240   13.46970
Pirates           38   54   .467   70.7   91.3     .00090     .07420     .07510

Average wins by position in NL West:  99.8 87.3 83.4 79.4 47.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           56   36   .622   99.8   62.2   98.33840    1.54240   99.88080
Giants            50   42   .499   84.1   77.9     .82930   36.38910   37.21840
Padres            48   42   .483   82.9   79.1     .39740   27.48440   27.88180
Diamondbacks      45   46   .535   83.1   78.9     .43490   29.07170   29.50660
Rockies           21   70   .381   47.5  114.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.3
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  86.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.