Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Jun 22 08:03:13 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 105.5 99.5 78.8 72.6 56.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 50 22 .572 102.0 60.0 44.43012 55.08473 99.51485 Red Sox 50 26 .620 103.0 59.0 55.56932 44.16493 99.73425 Blue Jays 34 40 .491 76.6 85.4 .00057 .88343 .88400 Rays 34 40 .463 74.9 87.1 .00000 .34465 .34464 Orioles 21 52 .421 56.8 105.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.4 83.3 72.4 61.5 55.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 40 33 .602 95.2 66.8 94.52403 1.36952 95.89355 Tigers 36 39 .432 72.5 89.5 .06493 .08932 .15425 Twins 33 38 .538 83.2 78.8 5.41093 7.70530 13.11624 White Sox 24 49 .390 57.9 104.1 .00010 .00000 .00010 Royals 22 52 .433 59.2 102.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 104.1 91.2 85.1 79.1 72.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 50 26 .622 104.0 58.0 96.47150 3.27578 99.74728 Mariners 46 29 .517 89.9 72.1 2.94073 60.50715 63.44789 Angels 40 35 .534 85.5 76.5 .56857 23.29901 23.86758 Athletics 38 36 .480 78.9 83.1 .01870 2.96168 2.98038 Rangers 32 44 .489 73.7 88.3 .00050 .31449 .31499 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 99.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 91.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.6 91.1 83.7 73.0 58.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 43 30 .551 93.1 68.9 43.60736 42.26813 85.87548 Nationals 40 33 .589 93.9 68.1 52.62101 36.30780 88.92881 Phillies 39 33 .493 84.1 77.9 3.74226 18.11644 21.85869 Mets 31 41 .460 73.2 88.8 .02898 .27645 .30542 Marlins 29 46 .348 58.6 103.4 .00040 .00000 .00040
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.0 89.6 84.7 78.6 64.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 44 30 .507 88.7 73.3 17.87670 40.67183 58.54853 Cubs 42 30 .573 94.9 67.1 74.09305 17.93648 92.02953 Cardinals 38 35 .540 85.4 76.6 7.09067 23.92692 31.01758 Pirates 36 38 .501 79.8 82.2 .93928 5.17244 6.11173 Reds 29 45 .414 64.9 97.1 .00030 .00157 .00187
Average wins by position in NL West: 89.5 84.6 80.8 76.4 69.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Diamondbacks 41 33 .468 82.6 79.4 18.01254 4.85382 22.86636 Dodgers 38 35 .557 87.5 74.5 58.69778 4.69329 63.39107 Giants 38 38 .457 78.0 84.0 4.19901 1.29817 5.49718 Rockies 37 38 .522 82.5 79.5 18.97715 4.45940 23.43654 Padres 34 43 .419 69.6 92.4 .11353 .01727 .13080 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.6 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
