Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri Sep 20 07:53:01 EDT 2019


Average wins by position in AL East:  104.5 94.7 85.5 66.4 52.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees          100   54   .560  104.5   57.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rays              90   63   .544   94.7   67.3     .00000   55.74190   55.74190
Red Sox           80   72   .548   85.5   76.5     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         62   91   .486   66.4   95.6     .00000     .00000     .00000
Orioles           49  104   .427   52.7  109.3     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  99.3 94.6 71.1 59.3 49.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins             94   59   .546   99.3   62.7   98.52215    1.28975   99.81190
Indians           90   63   .520   94.6   67.4    1.47785   49.38220   50.86005
White Sox         66   86   .460   71.1   90.9     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            56   98   .444   59.3  102.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            45  107   .441   49.6  112.4     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  105.2 96.8 77.8 73.0 69.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros           100   53   .594  105.2   56.8   99.99850     .00150  100.00000
Athletics         92   61   .527   96.8   65.2     .00150   93.58465   93.58615
Rangers           74   79   .451   77.8   84.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Angels            69   84   .503   72.9   89.1     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mariners          65   88   .484   69.4   92.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  97.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  95.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.4 89.1 84.8 82.9 57.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            94   60   .527   98.4   63.6   99.99985     .00015  100.00000
Nationals         83   68   .519   89.1   72.9     .00015   90.48284   90.48299
Mets              79   73   .504   84.4   77.6     .00000    4.25688    4.25688
Phillies          78   73   .504   83.4   78.6     .00000    2.22092    2.22092
Marlins           53   99   .420   57.0  105.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.3 87.9 86.2 76.8 69.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         86   67   .483   90.2   71.8   82.52408   13.53411   96.05820
Brewers           83   70   .516   87.5   74.5    8.83668   58.95969   67.79637
Cubs              82   71   .514   86.7   75.3    8.63923   30.28650   38.92574
Reds              72   81   .519   76.8   85.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           65   88   .476   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  102.9 82.7 77.9 73.6 70.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           98   55   .539  102.9   59.1  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Diamondbacks      78   75   .495   82.6   79.4     .00000     .25891     .25890
Giants            74   79   .440   77.9   84.1     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            69   84   .498   73.5   88.5     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           66   87   .498   70.4   91.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.4
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.