Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri Aug 26 08:01:26 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.8 88.9 86.2 81.7 70.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays         71   56   .562   90.1   71.9   49.43039   33.47964   82.91003
Red Sox           71   56   .524   88.8   73.2   31.17256   39.80936   70.98191
Orioles           70   57   .517   87.6   74.4   18.34118   36.44171   54.78288
Yankees           65   61   .499   82.1   79.9    1.05584    4.90100    5.95685
Rays              54   72   .507   70.9   91.1     .00003     .00014     .00017

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.5 86.5 82.8 78.3 65.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           72   54   .540   91.1   70.9   83.18000    8.24002   91.42002
Tigers            68   59   .515   86.2   75.8   13.97622   23.57277   37.54898
Royals            66   61   .493   83.0   79.0    2.68048    6.42909    9.10958
White Sox         61   65   .499   78.8   83.2     .16330     .35169     .51499
Twins             49   78   .503   65.8   96.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.2 86.9 83.4 73.1 69.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           75   53   .512   92.0   70.0   87.29063    7.47421   94.76484
Mariners          67   60   .549   85.4   76.6    7.07513   20.67232   27.74745
Astros            66   61   .564   85.1   76.9    5.63418   18.62806   24.26225
Athletics         55   72   .504   71.6   90.4     .00005     .00000     .00005
Angels            54   73   .506   70.9   91.1     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.6 85.9 82.3 73.8 61.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         74   53   .517   93.6   68.4   96.37537    2.82754   99.20290
Marlins           66   61   .496   84.2   77.8    1.93733   27.39801   29.33534
Mets              64   63   .525   84.0   78.0    1.68657   25.86511   27.55168
Phillies          59   68   .418   73.9   88.1     .00073     .02672     .02745
Braves            47   81   .409   61.3  100.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  100.9 86.6 82.7 72.4 68.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              81   45   .544  100.9   61.1   99.94047     .05908   99.99954
Cardinals         67   59   .496   85.5   76.5     .04662   46.48860   46.53522
Pirates           64   61   .509   83.8   78.2     .01292   25.54627   25.55918
Brewers           56   71   .440   71.4   90.6     .00000     .00098     .00098
Reds              54   72   .426   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00005     .00005

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.7 87.1 76.1 70.6 67.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           71   56   .554   91.0   71.0   76.13618   19.69250   95.82868
Giants            69   58   .515   87.8   74.2   23.85358   51.98176   75.83534
Rockies           60   67   .443   75.9   86.1     .01023     .11337     .12360
Padres            53   74   .449   69.1   92.9     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      53   75   .458   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00003     .00003

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.7
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.