Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Oct 2 08:05:15 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  108.0 100.0 90.0 73.0 47.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox          108   54   .581  108.0   54.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Yankees          100   62   .567  100.0   62.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rays              90   72   .488   90.0   72.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         73   89   .485   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Orioles           47  115   .415   47.0  115.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.0 78.0 64.0 62.0 58.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           91   71   .593   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Twins             78   84   .522   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            64   98   .444   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         62  100   .431   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            58  104   .430   58.0  104.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.0 97.0 89.0 80.0 67.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros           103   59   .577  103.0   59.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Athletics         97   65   .502   97.0   65.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Mariners          89   73   .514   89.0   73.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Angels            80   82   .510   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           67   95   .502   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  100.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  97.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.0 82.0 80.0 77.0 63.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            90   72   .517   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Nationals         82   80   .548   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          80   82   .492   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              77   85   .479   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Marlins           63   98   .404   63.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.0 95.0 88.0 82.0 67.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           96   67   .512   96.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Cubs              95   68   .539   95.0   68.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Cardinals         88   74   .507   88.0   74.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           82   79   .484   82.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              67   95   .451   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.0 91.0 82.0 73.0 66.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           92   71   .573   92.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rockies           91   72   .508   91.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Diamondbacks      82   80   .488   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Giants            73   89   .501   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            66   96   .420   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  94.4
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  90.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.