Postseason Odds, ELO version
Playing the rest of the season a million times
using Elo as the determining factor
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections). See the Forecast version of this report, based team rosters and projected performance.
Generated Sun Apr 8 08:26:46 EDT 2012
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.0 91.0 90.0 81.0 69.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 97 65 1576. 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rays 91 71 1563. 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Red Sox 90 72 1541. 90.0 72.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 81 81 1511. 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 69 93 1466. 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.0 80.0 79.0 71.0 63.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 95 67 1550. 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Indians 80 82 1482. 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 79 83 1490. 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 71 91 1482. 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 63 99 1431. 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.0 86.0 74.0 67.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 96 66 1576. 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Angels 86 76 1526. 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 74 88 1486. 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 67 95 1441. 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 102.0 89.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 102 60 1572. 102.0 60.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Braves 89 73 1506. 89.0 73.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 80 81 1489. 80.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 77 85 1488. 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 72 90 1464. 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.0 90.0 79.0 72.0 71.0 56.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 96 66 1551. 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cardinals 90 72 1531. 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Reds 79 83 1481. 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 72 90 1437. 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 71 91 1475. 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 56 106 1417. 56.0 106.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.0 86.0 82.0 73.0 71.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Diamondbacks 94 68 1538. 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Giants 86 76 1492. 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Dodgers 82 79 1520. 82.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 73 89 1454. 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 71 91 1464. 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.0
In this version we use the team's Elo scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's Elo is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the Elo score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.