Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Sep 26 07:59:34 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.6 89.8 87.4 82.2 68.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           92   64   .630   95.6   66.4   99.71300     .28700  100.00000         .00000    .47956
Blue Jays         86   69   .569   89.6   72.4     .28700   94.01908   94.30608        4.88007  30.42701
Orioles           85   71   .519   87.7   74.3     .00000   63.34878   63.34878       13.11575 -10.31186
Yankees           79   76   .499   82.2   79.8     .00000     .03350     .03350       -0.17828  -1.62335
Rays              65   90   .514   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.7 86.6 82.1 77.7 58.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           90   65   .566   93.7   68.3   99.95290     .04691   99.99981       -0.00014    .10917
Tigers            83   72   .516   86.6   75.4     .04710   25.84319   25.89029      -21.95929   3.25127
Royals            79   77   .465   82.1   79.9     .00000     .00039     .00039       -0.00065  -0.32695
White Sox         74   81   .472   77.7   84.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00002
Twins             56  100   .427   58.5  103.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.2 86.4 84.6 72.3 69.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           92   64   .488   95.2   66.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00312
Mariners          82   73   .509   85.8   76.2     .00000   11.80390   11.80390        2.96969 -13.84994
Astros            82   74   .503   85.2   76.8     .00000    4.61726    4.61726        1.17284  -8.15800
Angels            69   87   .445   72.1   89.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         67   88   .443   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.8 87.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.7 86.1 79.6 72.6 66.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         91   64   .595   95.7   66.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00013
Mets              83   73   .508   86.1   75.9     .00000   81.17803   81.17803       17.51947  -8.92434
Marlins           77   78   .488   79.6   81.4     .00000     .01270     .01270       -0.04542  -0.56644
Phillies          70   86   .404   72.6   89.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            63   92   .444   66.2   94.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.6 85.5 79.6 72.6 67.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              99   56   .649  103.6   58.4  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Cardinals         81   74   .542   85.5   76.5     .00000   65.15808   65.15808       -4.09867  21.20645
Pirates           77   78   .464   79.6   82.4     .00000     .03092     .03092       -0.06450  -0.14558
Brewers           70   86   .468   72.6   89.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              65   90   .408   67.2   94.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.3 85.2 76.0 68.8 66.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           90   66   .570   93.3   68.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00002    .28778
Giants            82   74   .531   85.2   76.8     .00000   53.62027   53.62027      -13.31090 -11.79262
Rockies           73   83   .496   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.06540
Padres            66   90   .427   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      64   91   .442   66.9   95.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  86.7 85.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.