Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu May 26 08:00:41 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.7 90.6 85.0 79.9 72.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           29   17   .601   97.9   64.1   72.72134   19.42289   92.14423        1.92496   9.10667
Orioles           26   18   .527   85.4   76.6   10.59990   32.51609   43.11599       -1.65560 -14.83885
Blue Jays         23   25   .532   82.8   79.2    5.28787   24.52216   29.81003        5.53163   4.08499
Yankees           22   23   .486   76.6   85.4    1.34371    8.55816    9.90187       -2.44632   5.29983
Rays              21   23   .552   85.2   76.8   10.04719   32.26736   42.31454       -2.58371 -12.77056

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.4 86.6 80.8 74.1 58.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
White Sox         27   21   .518   86.3   75.7   32.00374   18.34023   50.34397       -1.67841 -13.21718
Indians           25   20   .532   88.9   73.1   47.44693   16.31126   63.75819        5.61826  10.07531
Royals            24   22   .484   80.6   81.4   12.27801   10.59044   22.86845       -5.14982   4.31458
Tigers            23   23   .479   78.6   83.4    8.25525    7.89399   16.14924       -3.58467   2.31634
Twins             12   34   .401   58.4  103.6     .01608     .01350     .02958         .01049  -0.27259

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.0 84.3 78.3 72.8 65.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mariners          28   18   .534   91.0   71.0   69.85936    8.01906   77.87842        3.35522  11.62798
Rangers           27   20   .477   82.8   79.2   20.31647   13.29738   33.61385        3.55675  12.72306
Angels            21   26   .465   75.0   87.0    4.18534    3.55442    7.73976       -2.02454  -1.36215
Athletics         20   28   .434   70.4   91.6    1.29885    1.04205    2.34090       -1.18783  -8.81867
Astros            19   28   .481   75.1   86.9    4.33998    3.65100    7.99099         .31361  -8.26874

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.9 88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.3 89.8 83.0 74.6 62.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         28   19   .581   96.2   65.8   68.71391   17.76026   86.47417       -2.24577   5.65614
Mets              27   19   .519   87.1   74.9   17.48378   27.39458   44.87836        4.70955   4.87304
Phillies          26   21   .441   75.5   86.5    1.29396    3.96783    5.26178        1.03372  -5.76888
Marlins           24   22   .527   85.8   76.2   12.47863   25.32940   37.80803        2.33969  -0.01291
Braves            12   33   .439   63.7   98.3     .02973     .10630     .13603       -0.11655  -0.27751

Average wins by position in NL Central:  106.0 92.4 82.8 68.0 57.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              31   14   .623  105.4   56.6   88.19067   10.27174   98.46240         .09461    .32018
Pirates           26   19   .500   84.5   77.5    2.47528   28.28162   30.75690        1.52493   8.59850
Cardinals         24   23   .573   90.9   71.1    9.32177   55.80592   65.12769       -1.81894  -4.55547
Brewers           20   26   .411   66.8   95.2     .01213     .35641     .36854         .08252  -0.10794
Reds              15   32   .390   59.0  103.0     .00015     .01151     .01166       -0.00514  -0.20865

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.1 86.0 81.0 75.5 65.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            30   19   .508   86.5   75.5   38.18496    9.62471   47.80967        1.10782  16.82089
Dodgers           25   23   .534   85.4   76.6   32.73700    9.17811   41.91511         .41967  -7.12623
Rockies           21   24   .503   80.4   81.6   13.77301    5.64532   19.41833       -3.34696 -13.84921
Diamondbacks      21   27   .522   81.0   81.0   14.92911    6.09457   21.02368       -3.71102  -3.32964
Padres            19   29   .430   66.8   95.2     .37592     .17173     .54765       -0.06814  -1.03230

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.6 89.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.