Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun Apr 26 08:59:42 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  97.6 89.7 84.0 78.2 70.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rays              10    8   .532   85.2   76.8   21.44205   21.25159   42.69364        3.62742  10.80554
Red Sox           10    8   .500   80.5   81.5   11.11756   14.92403 
Yankees           10    8   .562   90.3   71.7   39.98405   22.31185   62.29590       -5.16358  26.36259
Blue Jays          9    9   .518   82.3   79.7   14.23191   17.63622   31.86813       -0.34162    .53039
Orioles            8   10   .521   81.8   80.2   13.22443   16.90753 

Average wins by position in AL Central:  98.3 88.5 80.8 73.8 65.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            12    4   .555   92.7   69.3   51.19912   20.02960 
Tigers            12    6   .538   89.0   73.0   34.05135   23.91845 
Twins              7   10   .462   73.3   88.7    3.40874    6.25353 
White Sox          6    9   .483   75.9   86.1    5.81972    9.16411 
Indians            6   10   .483   75.6   86.4    5.52108    8.61831 

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.9 85.3 78.6 72.0 63.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            10    7   .519   85.0   77.0   34.08458   12.22961   46.31420       10.22192  21.78811
Angels             9    9   .470   75.7   86.3    9.88344    5.92615 
Athletics          8   11   .549   86.8   75.2   41.64941   12.27323   53.92263       -5.74362  -3.06337
Mariners           7   10   .483   76.3   85.7   11.08718    6.38303   17.47021       -3.14545  -7.11974
Rangers            6   11   .443   68.9   93.1    3.29539    2.17275    5.46814       -0.87675  -6.57746

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.1 88.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.0 85.4 78.8 72.1 63.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              14    4   .508   88.2   73.8   47.45370   12.20350   59.65720        8.61219  14.01213
Braves             9    8   .494   82.3   79.7   23.89168   12.25768   36.14936        4.84310    .33569
Marlins            7   11   .496   79.8   82.2   17.14710   10.15033   27.29743        6.67253   8.99549
Nationals          7   11   .466   74.6   87.4    8.49387    5.51504   14.00891       -8.76323 -14.40994
Phillies           6   12   .434   68.6   93.4    3.01365    2.16412    5.17777       -3.03672 -11.75361

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.4 88.5 81.4 73.8 61.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         12    4   .527   90.1   71.9   41.86470   21.24217   63.10687       -0.72140  17.65561
Pirates           10    8   .479   79.6   82.4   10.90200   13.47512   24.37712         .57408  -2.33912
Cubs               9    7   .531   88.2   73.8   33.68476   22.23447   55.91923       -3.22541   4.49650
Reds               8    9   .496   81.0   81.0   13.01803   15.99069   29.00872       -0.36715  -4.29392
Brewers            3   15   .421   63.4   98.6     .53051     .97082    1.50132       -0.33121  -7.40711

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.1 89.1 82.7 76.5 68.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           11    6   .557   93.0   69.0   52.39556   20.36771   72.76327        4.53250  10.44304
Rockies           10    8   .489   80.7   81.3   11.19490   16.13502   27.32992       -7.12706 -15.32125
Padres            10    9   .522   85.9   76.1   22.36115   23.90473   46.26588       -4.22734   3.60970
Diamondbacks       8    9   .483   78.1   83.9    7.72585   12.33833   20.06418       -0.29370  -7.94383
Giants             8   11   .484   77.2   84.8    6.32254   11.05027   17.37281        2.85882   3.92061

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.9 88.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.