Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Aug 23 07:52:16 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.3 91.8 87.7 81.3 77.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 76 53 .555 94.2 67.8 62.46850 37.52870 99.99720 -0.00040 -0.00010 Yankees 73 56 .568 92.4 69.6 32.61880 67.33050 99.94930 -0.02140 .69991 Red Sox 70 59 .558 88.2 73.8 4.90890 93.16700 98.07590 .67940 3.67229 Blue Jays 64 67 .497 80.4 81.6 .00300 33.21620 33.21920 7.96510 13.22530 Orioles 63 67 .487 78.4 83.6 .00080 13.05760 13.05840 2.90850 -1.47070
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.2 81.5 79.0 76.3 70.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 67 62 .507 84.5 77.5 73.46580 10.50540 83.97120 -3.46460 2.34400 Guardians 64 66 .487 80.3 81.7 14.15600 18.99350 33.14950 3.90530 6.35200 Twins 63 67 .466 78.1 83.9 5.18870 6.73600 11.92470 -2.39760 1.70330 Tigers 61 68 .542 79.0 83.0 7.18420 9.95880 17.14300 -6.06470 -23.60360 Royals 57 74 .441 70.5 91.5 .00530 .02220 .02750 .01180 .02640
Average wins by position in AL west: 81.8 79.2 76.5 67.3 62.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 65 65 .455 79.8 82.2 39.62690 3.40830 43.03520 -6.91930 -19.39330 Rangers 64 66 .466 78.9 83.1 29.24440 3.36310 32.60750 -5.43690 1.69850 Mariners 62 68 .476 78.7 83.3 31.12420 2.71260 33.83680 8.83160 14.75120 Angels 52 78 .461 66.9 95.1 .00450 .00010 .00460 .00320 -0.00320 Athletics 50 80 .379 62.9 99.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00200 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.8 87.7 87.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.3 87.4 82.8 77.1 73.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 75 55 .533 91.8 70.2 81.04860 17.38010 98.42870 -0.32919 -0.84679 Phillies 72 58 .501 87.5 74.5 18.00550 62.07390 80.07940 7.17210 35.97980 Marlins 66 64 .549 82.9 79.1 .94470 20.67020 21.61490 4.14770 -11.74830 Nationals 61 70 .499 76.6 85.4 .00120 .30670 .30790 -0.26100 -3.74150 Mets 59 71 .484 74.0 88.0 .00000 .01700 .01700 .00830 -0.02660
Average wins by position in NL Central: 100.6 90.6 81.9 78.4 73.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 81 49 .617 100.6 61.4 98.19980 1.80020 100.00000 .00010 .00300 Cubs 74 56 .553 90.6 71.4 1.80010 94.30300 96.10310 -1.03899 -2.30740 Cardinals 66 65 .484 80.6 81.4 .00000 5.25500 5.25500 -2.96860 -3.50510 Pirates 63 68 .543 79.5 82.5 .00010 2.76150 2.76160 -1.14760 -2.68440 Reds 62 68 .428 73.8 88.2 .00000 .02200 .02200 .00720 -0.39000
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.6 86.9 83.1 67.8 62.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 79 51 .605 98.6 63.4 99.84880 .15030 99.99910 .00240 .01770 Padres 70 60 .498 85.8 76.2 .12220 58.77470 58.89690 5.58610 12.93010 Diamondbacks 68 62 .494 84.2 77.8 .02900 36.48540 36.51440 -11.17850 -23.67970 Giants 52 77 .473 67.5 94.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00080 Rockies 50 79 .394 62.9 99.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.3 88.1 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
