Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed May 20 07:52:22 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 101.1 92.8 81.3 74.6 67.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 32 15 .553 96.0 66.0 44.69040 52.50250 97.19290 .44830 1.92370 Yankees 30 19 .590 97.3 64.7 53.79360 44.32370 98.11730 .25980 -0.28950 Blue Jays 21 27 .486 76.5 85.5 .66440 25.16010 25.82450 -2.09310 6.45400 Red Sox 21 27 .494 76.9 85.1 .77980 25.99220 26.77200 6.18510 14.08650 Orioles 21 28 .440 70.3 91.7 .07180 6.88800 6.95980 -1.31110 -0.06820
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.0 82.9 78.5 74.3 68.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 28 22 .501 84.9 77.1 48.48190 20.62590 69.10780 .43111 16.63170 White Sox 25 23 .482 80.1 81.9 22.26710 21.50070 43.76780 1.99000 12.34850 Twins 22 27 .482 76.3 85.7 10.33500 14.96320 25.29820 -1.64430 3.91870 Royals 20 29 .477 74.5 87.5 6.15830 11.69330 17.85160 -6.49190 -19.52320 Tigers 20 29 .501 77.5 84.5 12.75770 17.27990 30.03760 -0.61810 -14.07430
Average wins by position in AL west: 88.2 81.5 76.2 70.7 64.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 24 24 .467 78.1 83.9 17.54260 17.21890 34.76150 3.57980 -3.84190 Rangers 23 25 .530 85.1 76.9 56.38310 16.02300 72.40610 8.32339 4.04140 Mariners 23 27 .496 79.2 82.8 21.14330 19.21960 40.36290 -5.66980 -10.09660 Astros 20 30 .431 68.2 93.8 1.67050 2.53330 4.20380 -0.16030 .30640 Angels 17 32 .464 70.0 92.0 3.26050 4.07570 7.33620 -3.22890 -11.81720 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.1 85.6 85.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 100.2 85.9 80.1 75.2 69.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 33 16 .590 99.9 62.1 92.81090 4.82690 97.63780 .73110 -0.22290 Phillies 25 24 .475 77.8 84.2 1.50060 14.17890 15.67950 -4.77970 3.20390 Nationals 24 25 .480 78.3 83.7 1.82850 15.36340 17.19190 1.26300 -11.52500 Marlins 22 27 .523 80.8 81.2 3.27400 23.86600 27.14000 -2.36540 .70700 Mets 21 27 .472 73.5 88.5 .58600 5.32860 5.91460 -0.69000 2.61580
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.6 91.6 85.7 79.8 70.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 29 20 .559 92.1 69.9 34.93720 47.54690 82.48410 -2.45530 -6.10480 Brewers 28 18 .573 94.5 67.5 50.17010 38.47410 88.64420 3.89910 13.11951 Cardinals 28 19 .500 84.8 77.2 9.12420 38.13480 47.25900 5.01100 2.98630 Reds 25 24 .436 72.4 89.6 .30970 4.38500 4.69470 1.08010 -1.91060 Pirates 24 24 .527 82.7 79.3 5.45880 30.94440 36.40320 -3.50420 -28.27240
Average wins by position in NL West: 99.8 87.2 79.9 72.0 63.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 30 19 .608 99.1 62.9 88.13770 8.87640 97.01410 .46870 5.64550 Padres 29 19 .485 83.5 78.5 6.15140 34.20990 40.36130 -0.31250 9.24140 Diamondbacks 24 23 .508 82.5 79.5 5.48000 30.24630 35.72630 2.66990 14.45890 Giants 20 29 .456 71.7 90.3 .20810 3.22090 3.42900 -0.60850 -2.72870 Rockies 19 30 .417 65.2 96.8 .02280 .39750 .42030 -0.40730 -1.21390 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.2 89.3 86.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
