Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Aug 16 08:01:45 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.3 88.2 82.3 78.4 74.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 68 51 .541 90.3 71.7 52.14869 44.53548 96.68417 Yankees 63 55 .605 89.9 72.1 46.40353 48.94623 95.34976 Rays 60 61 .531 81.5 80.5 1.25295 25.60647 26.85943 Orioles 59 61 .463 77.7 84.3 .12579 5.00930 5.13508 Blue Jays 57 62 .465 76.5 85.5 .06905 2.70014 2.76919
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.6 82.1 78.0 72.5 64.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 65 52 .592 92.6 69.4 97.69432 1.43694 99.13126 Royals 60 59 .476 80.4 81.6 1.62245 16.06730 17.68975 Twins 59 58 .447 79.3 82.7 .67480 11.05782 11.73262 Tigers 53 66 .457 72.7 89.3 .00843 .17004 .17847 White Sox 45 71 .424 64.8 97.2 .00000 .00018 .00018
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.5 83.2 79.9 76.9 71.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 73 46 .612 99.5 62.5 99.89477 .05567 99.95043 Angels 61 59 .484 80.7 81.3 .06628 19.84343 19.90971 Mariners 60 61 .488 78.9 83.1 .01221 8.83275 8.84495 Rangers 58 60 .500 80.0 82.0 .02614 15.57178 15.59792 Athletics 53 67 .477 72.5 89.5 .00061 .16645 .16706 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 88.4 84.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.9 80.7 75.0 71.0 62.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 71 46 .579 97.9 64.1 99.88720 .04000 99.92720 Marlins 57 61 .502 80.2 81.8 .10385 5.13698 5.24083 Braves 53 64 .446 73.6 88.4 .00540 .08903 .09443 Mets 53 64 .446 72.7 89.3 .00355 .02931 .03286 Phillies 43 74 .428 62.5 99.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 88.9 85.0 80.9 75.9 69.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 62 56 .548 87.3 74.7 58.31774 11.01630 69.33405 Brewers 62 59 .484 81.2 80.8 5.87071 4.82959 10.70030 Cardinals 61 58 .549 85.7 76.3 35.29284 14.61672 49.90956 Pirates 58 61 .445 76.2 85.8 .51568 .35283 .86851 Reds 50 70 .458 69.6 92.4 .00303 .00107 .00410
Average wins by position in NL West: 113.1 91.8 86.6 70.4 64.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 84 34 .648 113.1 48.9 99.94885 .01531 99.96416 Diamondbacks 66 53 .573 90.9 71.1 .03505 93.14706 93.18211 Rockies 66 53 .497 87.4 74.6 .01610 70.72046 70.73656 Padres 53 66 .424 70.1 91.9 .00000 .00535 .00535 Giants 48 73 .411 64.4 97.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.8 87.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
