Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Jun 22 08:01:30 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 108.8 99.9 82.2 72.2 52.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 50 22 .632 107.7 54.3 77.94240 21.85997 99.80237 .04218 .86757 Red Sox 50 26 .594 101.0 61.0 22.03290 75.88879 97.92169 1.06619 -0.14875 Blue Jays 34 40 .456 72.9 89.1 .00013 .28317 .28330 -0.10714 .12621 Rays 34 40 .532 81.4 80.6 .02457 5.64153 5.66610 .05714 -2.36556 Orioles 21 52 .378 52.9 109.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00003 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.6 80.1 72.9 62.2 53.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 40 33 .547 91.2 70.8 90.93144 .37223 91.30367 1.58142 1.59850 Tigers 36 39 .442 74.6 87.4 2.10168 .26174 2.36341 .14035 -1.70454 Twins 33 38 .473 78.4 83.6 6.95591 1.09081 8.04672 -2.46932 .95556 White Sox 24 49 .411 61.3 100.7 .01053 .00040 .01093 .00275 -0.17652 Royals 22 52 .370 54.9 107.1 .00045 .00010 .00055 .00025 -0.00990
Average wins by position in AL west: 106.8 93.0 85.9 79.9 69.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 50 26 .652 106.7 55.3 95.24567 4.36974 99.61540 -0.02012 .86475 Mariners 46 29 .533 91.6 70.4 4.13502 63.80037 67.93539 -2.38295 -2.83337 Angels 40 35 .528 85.0 77.0 .49567 18.20117 18.69684 1.68626 -0.87031 Athletics 38 36 .510 81.9 80.1 .12365 8.15138 8.27503 .39645 3.66136 Rangers 32 44 .445 69.5 92.5 .00000 .07860 .07860 .00657 .03501 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 100.4 92.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.7 89.0 83.3 72.4 63.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 43 30 .547 92.0 70.0 54.48773 23.92249 78.41022 -0.33641 .78054 Nationals 40 33 .539 88.4 73.6 27.78593 28.57708 56.36300 2.26264 -15.84620 Phillies 39 33 .517 86.3 75.7 17.55614 24.29572 41.85187 -1.29138 9.15271 Mets 31 41 .457 71.7 90.3 .16441 .49812 .66252 -0.19578 .19093 Marlins 29 46 .417 64.4 97.6 .00580 .01110 .01690 .00019 -0.00053
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.8 90.8 82.9 76.9 67.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 44 30 .542 91.9 70.1 31.42256 46.46077 77.88333 3.85919 6.52540 Cubs 42 30 .585 95.8 66.2 65.62069 26.19159 91.81229 -1.63919 4.10334 Cardinals 38 35 .486 80.4 81.6 1.63854 9.87988 11.51842 -3.55614 -4.31918 Pirates 36 38 .502 79.7 82.3 1.31010 7.80652 9.11662 -3.44769 -3.05521 Reds 29 45 .451 67.8 94.2 .00811 .06757 .07568 .01552 .03897
Average wins by position in NL West: 91.1 85.8 81.1 74.8 67.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 41 33 .524 87.4 74.6 45.43028 11.08141 56.51169 5.15744 -0.75232 Dodgers 38 35 .544 86.2 75.8 35.45315 11.93872 47.39186 -1.76376 5.60009 Giants 38 38 .514 82.9 79.1 17.00368 8.34206 25.34574 1.32651 -1.52019 Rockies 37 38 .446 74.6 87.4 1.85265 .84540 2.69805 -0.14294 -0.40090 Padres 34 43 .431 69.6 92.4 .26025 .08157 .34182 -0.24821 -0.49744 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.6 88.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
