Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Jul 24 07:36:08 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 88.6 84.8 81.7 78.8 73.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 55 45 .501 85.6 76.4 44.01280 9.42013 53.43293 -4.42382 4.66997 Blue Jays 53 49 .504 83.1 78.9 22.16041 8.81914 30.97955 4.70654 -6.48355 Yankees 52 48 .494 82.9 79.1 21.88989 8.25289 30.14278 1.95554 6.71647 Rays 49 53 .532 80.9 81.1 10.86550 5.30990 16.17540 3.31138 9.07681 Red Sox 47 54 .481 75.1 86.9 1.07140 .63539 1.70679 -0.76352 .25625
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.0 84.5 80.6 76.8 72.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 56 42 .538 90.3 71.7 80.24265 6.11441 86.35706 2.19331 -3.48283 Indians 51 50 .503 82.4 79.6 10.31138 12.49227 22.80365 -4.36980 6.88266 Royals 50 50 .501 81.6 80.4 7.91974 9.83599 17.75573 3.64739 -5.85692 White Sox 48 54 .476 76.2 85.8 .97778 1.24418 2.22197 -1.11900 -1.18627 Twins 46 54 .466 74.5 87.5 .54845 .48989 1.03834 .26186 -1.22662
Average wins by position in AL west: 101.1 94.8 84.6 70.7 63.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 62 38 .605 99.9 62.1 72.53352 27.27834 99.81185 .07650 .12488 Angels 60 40 .585 95.8 66.2 27.14242 71.29954 98.44196 .60089 .03725 Mariners 53 48 .528 84.7 77.3 .32407 38.76537 39.08944 -6.05303 -9.48736 Astros 42 59 .462 70.1 91.9 .00000 .04240 .04240 -0.02420 -0.03891 Rangers 40 61 .411 63.8 98.2 .00000 .00017 .00017 -0.00003 -0.00181 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.7 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 91.5 85.1 79.2 74.5 68.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 55 44 .548 90.5 71.5 75.75678 11.38994 87.14673 -3.11528 6.28711 Braves 55 46 .495 85.3 76.7 21.71993 25.31718 47.03711 4.67543 -7.37010 Mets 48 53 .488 78.1 83.9 1.90060 3.04223 4.94283 1.23842 -1.54575 Marlins 47 53 .464 75.6 86.4 .60792 1.09265 1.70057 -0.60349 -0.27926 Phillies 43 58 .435 69.1 92.9 .01477 .01448 .02925 -0.02063 -0.22009
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.3 87.7 84.5 80.5 70.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 57 45 .517 87.4 74.6 33.35035 30.23858 63.58892 6.09970 12.40195 Cardinals 54 47 .543 87.7 74.3 36.70928 29.96168 66.67096 -6.46376 -5.24022 Pirates 54 47 .529 86.2 75.8 22.87012 30.31706 53.18718 5.34136 16.54905 Reds 51 50 .515 82.5 79.5 7.05087 15.63304 22.68391 -5.26567 -31.04038 Cubs 41 58 .479 70.7 91.3 .01938 .09949 .11888 -0.10293 -0.41352
Average wins by position in NL West: 91.4 86.1 75.0 70.9 66.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Giants 57 44 .515 88.9 73.1 51.86625 25.44750 77.31375 3.08278 18.03524 Dodgers 56 47 .540 88.5 73.5 48.03442 27.21817 75.25259 -4.89234 -7.01728 Padres 44 56 .438 71.4 90.6 .05333 .11970 .17304 .06290 .02204 Diamondbacks 44 58 .450 71.5 90.5 .03142 .08231 .11373 -0.05233 .02392 Rockies 41 60 .461 69.7 92.3 .01458 .02599 .04057 .01585 -0.19270 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 89.0 86.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
