Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Aug 16 08:01:45 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.3 88.2 82.3 78.4 74.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           68   51   .541   90.3   71.7   52.14869   44.53548   96.68417
Yankees           63   55   .605   89.9   72.1   46.40353   48.94623   95.34976
Rays              60   61   .531   81.5   80.5    1.25295   25.60647   26.85943
Orioles           59   61   .463   77.7   84.3     .12579    5.00930    5.13508
Blue Jays         57   62   .465   76.5   85.5     .06905    2.70014    2.76919

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.6 82.1 78.0 72.5 64.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           65   52   .592   92.6   69.4   97.69432    1.43694   99.13126
Royals            60   59   .476   80.4   81.6    1.62245   16.06730   17.68975
Twins             59   58   .447   79.3   82.7     .67480   11.05782   11.73262
Tigers            53   66   .457   72.7   89.3     .00843     .17004     .17847
White Sox         45   71   .424   64.8   97.2     .00000     .00018     .00018

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.5 83.2 79.9 76.9 71.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            73   46   .612   99.5   62.5   99.89477     .05567   99.95043
Angels            61   59   .484   80.7   81.3     .06628   19.84343   19.90971
Mariners          60   61   .488   78.9   83.1     .01221    8.83275    8.84495
Rangers           58   60   .500   80.0   82.0     .02614   15.57178   15.59792
Athletics         53   67   .477   72.5   89.5     .00061     .16645     .16706

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.4 84.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.9 80.7 75.0 71.0 62.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         71   46   .579   97.9   64.1   99.88720     .04000   99.92720
Marlins           57   61   .502   80.2   81.8     .10385    5.13698    5.24083
Braves            53   64   .446   73.6   88.4     .00540     .08903     .09443
Mets              53   64   .446   72.7   89.3     .00355     .02931     .03286
Phillies          43   74   .428   62.5   99.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  88.9 85.0 80.9 75.9 69.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              62   56   .548   87.3   74.7   58.31774   11.01630   69.33405
Brewers           62   59   .484   81.2   80.8    5.87071    4.82959   10.70030
Cardinals         61   58   .549   85.7   76.3   35.29284   14.61672   49.90956
Pirates           58   61   .445   76.2   85.8     .51568     .35283     .86851
Reds              50   70   .458   69.6   92.4     .00303     .00107     .00410

Average wins by position in NL West:  113.1 91.8 86.6 70.4 64.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           84   34   .648  113.1   48.9   99.94885     .01531   99.96416
Diamondbacks      66   53   .573   90.9   71.1     .03505   93.14706   93.18211
Rockies           66   53   .497   87.4   74.6     .01610   70.72046   70.73656
Padres            53   66   .424   70.1   91.9     .00000     .00535     .00535
Giants            48   73   .411   64.4   97.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.8 87.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.