Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Sep 1 07:59:45 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 88.7 81.5 77.4 73.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays         74   57   .604   92.3   69.7   73.20791   26.28556   99.49347       -0.13486   1.77749
Yankees           72   58   .560   89.4   72.6   26.59631   69.63313   96.22944       -0.91755  -0.06279
Rays              65   66   .536   81.0   81.0     .18999   14.18247   14.37246        4.12775 -12.72236
Orioles           63   68   .495   76.9   85.1     .00514    1.10243    1.10757       -0.62638  -9.97649
Red Sox           61   70   .486   75.0   87.0     .00065     .25089     .25154         .10244    .04649

Average wins by position in AL Central:  97.5 83.5 80.2 76.8 73.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            80   50   .541   97.5   64.5   99.90135     .04834   99.94969         .00064    .00961
Twins             67   63   .446   80.8   81.2     .03107   14.85996   14.89103         .84051   7.02378
Indians           64   66   .555   82.2   79.8     .06572   26.77607   26.84179        7.09475  18.78108
White Sox         61   68   .454   75.4   86.6     .00063     .47934     .47997         .07088  -0.34251
Tigers            60   70   .489   75.6   86.4     .00123     .65010     .65133         .06662  -3.38470

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.7 83.6 79.5 75.9 72.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            73   59   .581   90.6   71.4   93.95043    4.39373   98.34416         .91389   2.58707
Rangers           68   62   .482   83.1   78.9    5.44750   33.77458   39.22208       -9.29129   8.03763
Angels            65   66   .484   79.5   82.5     .58832    7.23421    7.82252       -2.09052 -11.52387
Mariners          61   71   .479   75.1   86.9     .01133     .25998     .27131       -0.17791  -0.05222
Athletics         58   74   .541   74.0   88.0     .00242     .06922     .07163         .02102  -0.19822

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.9 84.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.6 84.2 69.2 66.2 63.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              73   58   .519   90.3   71.7   90.31755     .76674   91.08429        3.42494   5.01447
Nationals         66   64   .520   84.4   77.6    9.68245    2.50958   12.19203       -3.06400  -3.62165
Braves            54   77   .392   66.6   95.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00207
Marlins           53   79   .455   67.7   94.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00015
Phillies          52   80   .383   64.2   97.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00010

Average wins by position in NL Central:  102.9 97.1 91.2 70.5 66.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         85   46   .556  102.7   59.3   89.97820    9.98593   99.96413         .01310    .06799
Pirates           79   50   .534   97.1   65.9    9.65460   89.92975   99.58435         .08160    .38868
Cubs              74   56   .526   91.5   71.5     .36720   87.74095   88.10815       -1.39761  -2.86319
Brewers           55   75   .441   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              54   76   .476   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00005

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.0 85.9 79.9 76.4 66.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           73   57   .572   91.8   70.2   89.75227    1.83845   91.59072        4.63975  18.53478
Giants            69   62   .532   85.9   76.1   10.08600    7.13235   17.21835       -3.64910 -14.42703
Padres            64   67   .448   78.3   83.7     .09402     .03893     .13294         .04432  -0.54161
Diamondbacks      63   68   .494   78.0   84.0     .06772     .05733     .12504       -0.09300  -2.55009
Rockies           53   76   .420   66.6   95.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  96.6 90.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.