Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Jun 24 08:00:31 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.5 90.1 84.9 78.2 71.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           41   30   .525   87.1   74.9   14.46939   35.26845   49.73784         .20887    .39825
Red Sox           40   32   .608   94.6   67.4   65.58481   24.13025   89.71506         .60456  -0.59470
Blue Jays         40   34   .552   88.5   73.5   18.81204   40.91683   59.72887       -0.12639  -5.63134
Yankees           35   36   .468   75.3   86.7     .47772    2.56325    3.04097       -0.02085  -0.53377
Rays              31   39   .501   75.9   86.1     .65604    3.15640    3.81244       -0.07645 -12.13405

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.6 87.0 82.0 76.4 58.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           41   30   .558   93.4   68.6   75.15890   11.25786   86.41676       -0.14921  21.93363
Royals            38   33   .500   84.5   77.5   12.82757   20.54201   33.36958       -0.37169   6.48838
Tigers            38   35   .499   82.6   79.4    8.68975   14.44141   23.13116        2.84442  -5.16234
White Sox         36   37   .476   79.5   82.5    3.32358    7.18283   10.50641       -0.79659  -1.98529
Twins             23   49   .401   58.4  103.6     .00020     .00017     .00038       -0.00150  -0.00791

Average wins by position in AL west:  94.0 86.0 80.1 71.7 64.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           47   26   .504   92.9   69.1   78.23909    9.04537   87.28447         .44248   6.74581
Astros            37   36   .511   83.3   78.7   11.21999   15.72607   26.94606         .31789   9.75025
Mariners          36   37   .518   83.1   78.9   10.32588   15.41474   25.74062       -2.70957 -18.16317
Angels            31   42   .449   70.6   91.4     .18129     .31793     .49923       -0.18044  -0.98165
Athletics         30   42   .414   66.1   95.9     .03374     .03642     .07016         .01448  -0.12210

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.6 88.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.6 87.7 80.9 68.2 61.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         43   30   .587   97.0   65.0   86.51370    7.30734   93.82104         .04214  -3.15805
Marlins           39   34   .513   85.3   76.7    7.47877   23.18413   30.66290        4.84792   9.88929
Mets              38   33   .504   83.7   78.3    6.00378   16.14372   22.14751       -5.05116 -22.89218
Phillies          31   43   .392   65.1   96.9     .00178     .01618     .01797         .00729  -0.23845
Braves            25   47   .430   64.4   97.6     .00197     .00748     .00944         .00281    .00627

Average wins by position in NL Central:  106.8 92.9 77.9 68.4 59.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              47   24   .639  106.6   55.4   93.98825    5.78976   99.77801       -0.03241  -0.01052
Cardinals         38   33   .588   93.0   69.0    5.98950   74.71321   80.70271         .28806   2.68200
Pirates           34   39   .479   77.2   84.8     .02165    3.04368    3.06533       -0.97186  -7.93318
Brewers           32   40   .421   68.4   93.6     .00060     .07963     .08023         .00219  -0.13400
Reds              28   45   .378   60.1  101.9     .00000     .00072     .00072       -0.00018  -0.00291

Average wins by position in NL West:  96.9 89.6 82.4 76.7 67.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            47   27   .555   95.4   66.6   71.27161   18.60216   89.87377        1.71301  14.37486
Dodgers           41   33   .560   90.0   72.0   25.22553   38.66061   63.88613       -0.27177  13.94688
Diamondbacks      35   40   .523   80.5   81.5    2.13821    7.18933    9.32754        1.26595   4.37386
Rockies           34   38   .506   79.0   83.0    1.34989    5.18300    6.53289       -1.85758 -10.90153
Padres            31   43   .444   68.6   93.4     .01477     .07906     .09383         .01561  -0.00233

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.8 89.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.