Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Apr 25 08:02:08 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 103.4 91.8 83.3 75.2 63.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 17 5 .591 100.8 61.2 70.54232 20.87035 91.41266 .01186 8.52552 Blue Jays 14 8 .484 80.7 81.3 4.86375 19.54724 24.41099 3.82804 1.22820 Yankees 13 9 .554 90.3 71.7 20.89458 41.48473 62.37931 6.70920 24.54576 Rays 8 13 .505 79.0 83.0 3.45440 16.35680 19.81120 -2.54022 3.69591 Orioles 6 17 .443 66.6 95.4 .24495 1.70619 1.95114 -0.17876 -6.49831
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.1 81.8 75.6 69.5 61.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 12 9 .493 83.8 78.2 44.44123 4.79105 49.23227 -6.11331 -1.65207 Tigers 9 11 .463 76.2 85.8 17.19358 3.54782 20.74140 1.74010 2.02815 Twins 8 10 .474 78.4 83.6 24.24809 4.23784 28.48593 -1.67111 -22.25954 White Sox 5 15 .458 71.8 90.2 9.38908 1.78760 11.17667 .10604 -1.49539 Royals 5 16 .436 68.1 93.9 4.72803 .95044 5.67847 -0.58645 -5.94580
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.5 89.6 83.2 76.0 65.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 16 8 .524 89.1 72.9 33.15910 24.59058 57.74967 1.19714 -15.77011 Astros 16 9 .536 89.1 72.9 33.56329 23.99810 57.56139 -3.91984 22.62778 Athletics 13 11 .534 87.2 74.8 25.99718 23.72715 49.72432 3.34337 14.53393 Mariners 12 10 .471 77.6 84.4 6.29754 10.06668 16.36422 -0.98468 -17.11294 Rangers 8 17 .451 69.3 92.7 .98290 2.33743 3.32033 -0.94143 -6.45113 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.3 89.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.3 88.6 82.4 75.7 63.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 15 6 .522 87.7 74.3 33.14795 18.90589 52.05384 1.71690 -0.59224 Phillies 14 8 .521 86.1 75.9 27.13989 18.43425 45.57415 -5.88615 3.81916 Braves 12 10 .534 85.9 76.1 25.86890 18.75401 44.62291 -7.32185 -8.23340 Nationals 10 14 .519 81.2 80.8 13.06612 13.39841 26.46452 -2.14828 -18.69118 Marlins 6 17 .443 65.7 96.3 .77714 .98373 1.76087 .48203 -4.06041
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.4 87.6 81.4 74.5 63.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 15 9 .507 85.3 76.7 26.68328 16.24900 42.93228 3.02917 17.62609 Cardinals 13 9 .520 86.9 75.1 33.53179 16.16983 49.70162 .07882 5.69508 Pirates 12 10 .478 78.7 83.3 11.23718 9.05005 20.28724 -0.62559 -12.99359 Cubs 11 9 .517 85.2 76.8 27.46238 15.32237 42.78476 8.36008 14.40673 Reds 5 18 .443 66.7 95.3 1.08537 1.17222 2.25759 .15540 -4.36769
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.9 88.9 82.1 75.3 67.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 16 6 .572 95.8 66.2 64.53588 16.59516 81.13104 6.71001 13.88406 Rockies 13 12 .473 76.0 86.0 4.16443 7.90865 12.07309 2.06636 -17.52760 Dodgers 11 11 .532 84.7 77.3 16.63502 22.76840 39.40341 -6.32324 6.22140 Giants 11 12 .520 82.9 79.1 12.46926 19.55663 32.02589 2.13310 9.11229 Padres 9 16 .478 73.0 89.0 2.19542 4.73139 6.92681 -2.42675 -4.29868 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.1 89.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
