Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Sep 14 07:52:25 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.1 91.7 87.8 79.9 74.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 86 62 .566 93.6 68.4 70.03400 29.95300 99.98700 .00550 .03260 Yankees 83 65 .612 92.1 69.9 29.07640 70.76900 99.84540 .10280 .16560 Red Sox 81 68 .557 87.8 74.2 .88960 81.33700 82.22660 -8.74590 -13.17790 Rays 73 75 .531 79.9 82.1 .00000 .07710 .07710 .02120 -10.39620 Orioles 69 79 .440 74.5 87.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00120
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.2 83.3 80.1 71.0 62.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 84 65 .537 91.2 70.8 99.38480 .29570 99.68050 -0.19971 -0.22920 Guardians 77 71 .446 83.2 78.8 .61490 4.66450 5.27940 .38410 2.70980 Royals 74 75 .493 80.3 81.7 .00030 .07180 .07210 -0.23660 -18.19300 Twins 65 83 .455 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 57 92 .425 62.6 99.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 89.4 87.5 85.6 76.0 74.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 81 68 .513 87.7 74.3 30.63070 44.36070 74.99140 3.35120 -3.96350 Mariners 81 68 .535 88.5 73.5 58.07860 31.53900 89.61760 .37730 31.60910 Rangers 79 70 .541 86.3 75.7 11.29070 36.93220 48.22290 4.94010 11.46610 Angels 69 80 .420 74.8 87.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.01980 Athletics 69 80 .480 75.2 86.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00240 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.7 88.5 88.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.7 83.3 75.9 72.3 66.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 60 .581 96.7 65.3 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .01760 Mets 76 73 .554 83.3 78.7 .00000 55.51080 55.51080 -0.53710 -34.12370 Marlins 70 79 .458 75.8 86.2 .00000 .01620 .01620 .01280 .01360 Braves 65 83 .471 72.3 89.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00230 Nationals 61 87 .400 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.9 92.0 80.9 77.2 71.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 91 58 .585 98.9 63.1 99.57360 .42640 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 84 64 .573 92.0 70.0 .42640 99.57050 99.99690 .00060 .04601 Reds 74 74 .499 80.7 81.3 .00000 8.09860 8.09860 -1.32000 6.66200 Cardinals 72 77 .459 77.4 84.6 .00000 .24710 .24710 -0.01540 .02490 Pirates 65 84 .470 71.1 90.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.6 87.8 82.8 79.9 45.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 83 65 .552 90.4 71.6 80.56170 19.39920 99.96090 .23120 2.95400 Padres 81 68 .541 88.0 74.0 19.24900 79.92680 99.17580 1.33559 4.81760 Giants 75 73 .500 82.4 79.6 .18690 31.82840 32.01530 -2.44930 17.04100 Diamondbacks 74 75 .506 80.3 81.7 .00240 4.97600 4.97840 2.74160 2.54940 Rockies 41 108 .299 45.1 116.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.1 87.8 83.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
