Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Oct 2 08:02:23 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 91.0 80.0 76.0 75.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           93   69   .545   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Yankees           91   71   .630   91.0   71.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Rays              80   82   .540   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01204
Blue Jays         76   86   .462   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Orioles           75   87   .448   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  102.0 85.0 80.0 67.0 64.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians          102   60   .638  102.0   60.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             85   77   .497   85.0   77.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   1.37958
Royals            80   82   .453   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.07044
White Sox         67   95   .434   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            64   98   .427   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  101.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 75.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros           101   61   .608  101.0   61.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Angels            80   82   .492   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -1.18799
Mariners          78   84   .501   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           78   84   .481   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.10911
Athletics         75   87   .489   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.0 85.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.0 77.0 72.0 70.0 66.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         97   65   .568   97.0   65.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           77   85   .473   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            72   90   .441   72.0   90.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              70   92   .437   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          66   96   .427   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.0 86.0 83.0 75.0 68.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              92   70   .558   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .15037
Brewers           86   76   .508   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -13.03166
Cardinals         83   79   .534   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -11.50803
Pirates           75   87   .434   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              68   94   .458   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  104.0 93.0 87.0 71.0 64.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers          104   58   .612  104.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      93   69   .577   93.0   69.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           87   75   .506   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  24.38932
Padres            71   91   .408   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            64   98   .413   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  93.0 87.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.