Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Jul 6 07:52:12 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.6 90.0 86.2 81.7 69.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 51 38 .521 88.7 73.3 22.94090 55.80430 78.74520 1.67340 27.58270 Rays 48 41 .547 87.5 74.5 16.91520 54.50620 71.42140 -5.30600 -19.11320 Yankees 48 41 .609 92.3 69.7 54.96360 37.89080 92.85440 -2.24490 -5.35630 Red Sox 45 45 .546 83.9 78.1 5.17620 37.68750 42.86370 3.41360 8.35140 Orioles 39 49 .417 69.1 92.9 .00410 .18230 .18640 .03470 .01250
Average wins by position in AL Central: 96.8 81.9 77.1 72.0 58.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 56 34 .560 96.8 65.2 98.38680 .99210 99.37890 .10430 .49830 Twins 43 46 .487 79.2 82.8 1.02660 12.90470 13.93130 .99460 -7.62060 Royals 42 48 .484 77.8 84.2 .49680 7.74150 8.23830 -4.08970 -9.75980 Guardians 40 47 .437 73.9 88.1 .08980 2.02840 2.11820 -0.80690 -5.83470 White Sox 30 59 .395 58.8 103.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00020
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.3 87.0 81.5 74.2 65.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 54 35 .548 94.8 67.2 84.68540 12.48580 97.17120 .24261 2.55210 Mariners 47 42 .525 85.8 76.2 11.33710 47.36760 58.70470 4.11670 17.25680 Rangers 44 45 .525 82.5 79.5 3.84110 27.92490 31.76600 2.92620 -6.78070 Angels 43 45 .426 74.4 87.6 .13600 2.45460 2.59060 -1.02990 -1.78770 Athletics 37 54 .415 66.4 95.6 .00040 .02930 .02970 -0.02870 -0.00060 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.8 88.0 87.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.8 88.9 78.0 72.5 66.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 52 37 .538 91.3 70.7 46.76530 39.09480 85.86010 1.72730 15.21210 Mets 52 38 .558 92.3 69.7 52.90940 36.66980 89.57920 3.11450 4.36280 Marlins 40 47 .456 73.7 88.3 .09120 .92340 1.01460 .16890 .64550 Braves 39 49 .502 75.8 86.2 .23210 2.07110 2.30320 -1.00540 -6.67720 Nationals 37 52 .424 67.2 94.8 .00200 .01810 .02010 -0.01000 .00170
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.6 89.1 84.9 80.7 73.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 53 36 .588 96.0 66.0 83.17210 14.03400 97.20610 -0.52210 4.20350 Brewers 49 40 .520 86.0 76.0 7.52150 42.04840 49.56990 -5.47870 -3.44790 Cardinals 48 42 .526 86.0 76.0 6.99010 42.12150 49.11160 5.19080 -6.34820 Reds 46 43 .510 82.7 79.3 2.27440 22.22040 24.49480 -3.04840 -0.92030 Pirates 38 52 .503 74.7 87.3 .04190 1.27100 1.31290 -0.70510 .70630
Average wins by position in NL West: 95.8 88.3 83.9 79.3 45.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 56 34 .543 95.2 66.8 83.82900 12.33860 96.16760 -0.58290 1.89080 Giants 48 42 .500 83.9 78.1 5.08760 27.55170 32.63930 3.77820 -3.42180 Padres 47 41 .514 85.8 76.2 8.70430 39.37140 48.07570 -6.89020 -4.31890 Diamondbacks 44 45 .523 82.4 79.6 2.37910 20.26580 22.64490 4.26310 -1.88840 Rockies 20 69 .351 45.3 116.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.8 89.0 86.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
