Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Apr 19 07:20:50 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.8 85.2 79.4 73.7 65.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 10 7 .494 82.5 79.5 28.01358 11.28026 39.29384 -10.54584 17.07617 Blue Jays 9 8 .458 76.0 86.0 11.82879 6.83316 18.66195 -0.23077 -3.95211 Orioles 8 7 .469 77.5 84.5 14.96959 7.94101 22.91060 1.27653 -0.33127 Rays 8 9 .508 82.7 79.3 29.13218 11.12677 40.25895 15.73388 -3.98669 Red Sox 7 10 .485 78.1 83.9 16.05585 8.33176 24.38761 -5.32437 -9.81609
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.0 86.4 80.8 75.2 67.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Royals 8 7 .498 81.7 80.3 22.31560 12.70032 35.01591 3.94927 -2.03245 Twins 8 8 .500 81.5 80.5 21.64597 12.70585 34.35181 -3.58778 7.26746 White Sox 8 9 .490 79.8 82.2 17.02565 11.27842 28.30407 -9.29562 -17.82802 Tigers 7 6 .490 80.5 81.5 20.21612 11.55028 31.76639 -2.28689 -5.36470 Indians 7 9 .496 80.4 81.6 18.79667 11.77593 30.57259 -2.66450 5.07930
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.5 89.4 82.6 75.6 65.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 11 5 .556 93.1 68.9 51.05275 23.50702 74.55977 3.03493 26.13131 Rangers 10 7 .496 81.3 80.7 12.41753 19.36629 31.78382 9.69686 3.36349 Angels 8 8 .508 82.1 79.9 13.62093 20.85774 34.47868 1.79293 -0.05257 Mariners 7 9 .533 85.7 76.3 21.21949 26.69207 47.91156 -0.30154 -10.31339 Astros 5 12 .450 69.3 92.7 1.68930 4.05313 5.74243 -1.24712 -5.24045 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.9 87.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.9 87.9 81.3 74.7 66.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 11 5 .550 91.3 70.7 50.11078 17.25195 67.36273 3.53308 21.94428 Nationals 10 7 .518 85.2 76.8 24.40111 19.52865 43.92976 3.11578 -5.17516 Mets 8 8 .465 74.7 87.3 5.77623 7.15045 12.92668 -4.29292 -3.95452 Phillies 7 9 .475 75.4 86.6 6.59162 7.76908 14.36070 -5.65907 -11.78963 Marlins 7 10 .510 80.2 81.8 13.12026 13.08183 26.20209 3.10769 -14.95266
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.8 89.5 83.1 76.3 66.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 12 5 .537 89.4 72.6 36.07427 23.25084 59.32511 2.80477 -6.89601 Cardinals 10 7 .540 88.2 73.8 30.71618 23.83009 54.54628 -0.52494 33.62609 Pirates 8 9 .504 80.3 81.7 10.79551 14.95806 25.75357 -4.54511 -10.93395 Reds 7 9 .534 84.4 77.6 19.70538 20.41872 40.12409 4.02442 22.99577 Cubs 4 11 .467 71.2 90.8 2.70867 4.74478 7.45344 -4.62288 -19.38423
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.2 86.2 80.0 73.5 63.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 10 7 .504 82.8 79.2 25.08013 11.93139 37.01152 -8.13942 -10.75491 Giants 10 7 .494 81.0 81.0 19.60742 10.81799 30.42541 -0.68169 4.41750 Rockies 9 9 .526 85.1 76.9 33.17566 12.77470 45.95036 10.49118 8.20435 Padres 8 9 .506 81.1 80.9 20.13147 10.86809 30.99956 1.37177 -0.37266 Diamondbacks 5 14 .443 67.4 94.6 2.00532 1.62340 3.62872 .01736 -6.97424 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.8 88.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
