Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Apr 30 08:00:52 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.6 88.7 82.8 76.8 67.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           14    8   .546   90.6   71.4   45.03476   21.35314   66.38790
Red Sox           13   10   .512   83.8   78.2   18.73997   20.34345   39.08342
Blue Jays         11   13   .521   82.9   79.1   16.25568   19.25664   35.51232
Rays              10   12   .523   83.0   79.0   16.64865   19.19434   35.84298
Yankees            8   13   .469   72.5   89.5    3.32095    5.39148    8.71243

Average wins by position in AL Central:  96.7 88.7 82.5 76.1 66.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
White Sox         16    8   .538   90.2   71.8   42.74492   22.49650   65.24142
Royals            12   10   .513   83.1   78.9   17.54844   18.93756   36.48600
Tigers            12   10   .498   81.0   81.0   12.76330   16.18418   28.94748
Indians           10   10   .529   85.7   76.3   24.95665   21.83679   46.79344
Twins              7   16   .463   70.7   91.3    1.98669    3.87867    5.86536

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.4 83.9 78.2 72.4 64.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           13   10   .472   79.5   82.5   20.70097    7.31501   28.01598
Mariners          12   10   .502   83.6   78.4   35.86786    8.68437   44.55223
Athletics         12   12   .484   80.4   81.6   23.73863    7.58032   31.31894
Angels            11   12   .471   77.4   84.6   15.60583    5.92480   21.53063
Astros             7   16   .445   69.1   92.9    4.08671    1.62273    5.70944

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.1 88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.0 88.7 82.0 74.7 64.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         15    7   .528   88.3   73.7   33.34527   20.90289   54.24815
Mets              14    7   .534   89.6   72.4   39.40784   20.10572   59.51356
Phillies          13   10   .466   76.7   85.3    5.78698    8.26762   14.05459
Marlins           11   11   .525   84.6   77.4   20.51568   18.75301   39.26870
Braves             5   18   .451   67.4   94.6     .94423    1.54296    2.48719

Average wins by position in NL Central:  102.9 91.1 82.3 73.4 60.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              17    5   .593  100.5   60.5   72.50975   18.96770   91.47745
Pirates           14    9   .495   82.2   78.8    6.97695   23.43579   30.41274
Cardinals         12   11   .553   89.6   72.4   18.89170   39.90374   58.79544
Reds               9   14   .474   75.2   86.8    1.50630    8.61424   10.12054
Brewers            8   14   .406   63.2   97.8     .11530     .82831     .94361

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.1 85.6 79.9 73.8 64.9
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           12   12   .521   84.0   78.0   29.47052   10.45419   39.92470
Giants            12   12   .488   78.6   83.4   13.67998    7.07963   20.75961
Diamondbacks      12   13   .527   85.0   77.0   33.52755   10.77836   44.30591
Rockies           10   12   .507   80.7   80.3   20.66040    8.87210   29.53250
Padres             8   15   .445   69.0   93.0    2.66155    1.49375    4.15530

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.1 89.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.