Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Jul 25 07:59:59 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.7 91.1 86.9 78.6 68.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           57   40   .521   89.6   72.4   20.91287   47.81630   68.72916        3.57452   3.53857
Red Sox           55   41   .595   93.5   68.5   55.55508   34.76379   90.31888         .96041   2.34128
Blue Jays         55   44   .563   90.2   71.8   23.20968   50.33827   73.54796        3.17123    .35145
Yankees           50   48   .482   78.7   83.3     .32202    3.16990    3.49192         .46319   1.57687
Rays              38   60   .488   68.2   93.8     .00035     .00604     .00639       -0.00858  -0.01630

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.3 84.9 80.5 76.0 65.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           56   41   .565   94.1   67.9   92.53398    2.63403   95.16800       -0.52346  -0.03435
Tigers            51   48   .497   82.7   79.3    4.48624   10.76130   15.24754       -6.92531  -6.80870
Royals            48   49   .490   80.6   81.4    2.07988    5.43550    7.51537       -3.15672  -7.62864
White Sox         48   50   .472   78.1   83.9     .89929    1.78284    2.68214         .80267  -0.95631
Twins             37   61   .444   65.3   96.7     .00062     .00028     .00090       -0.00018    .00050

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.3 86.8 82.5 73.8 68.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           57   42   .481   88.9   73.1   51.93298   14.57236   66.50534        3.55827  -7.56773
Astros            54   44   .517   86.9   75.1   32.13689   16.37649   48.51338        4.09817   9.50121
Mariners          50   48   .522   84.5   77.5   15.83711   12.26276   28.09986       -5.90176   5.87315
Athletics         45   54   .424   70.7   91.3     .03808     .02265     .06073         .01398    .01956
Angels            43   55   .452   71.6   90.4     .05495     .05749     .11244       -0.12642  -0.19056

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.6 88.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.9 89.1 84.0 70.6 58.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         58   41   .596   96.4   65.6   87.10327    8.86196   95.96522       -1.05300  -1.30412
Marlins           53   45   .519   86.7   75.3    6.32743   28.68725   35.01468       -4.15129    .52256
Mets              52   45   .518   86.8   75.2    6.56737   29.11416   35.68153        5.83200  -0.31769
Phillies          45   55   .421   70.6   91.4     .00193     .02044     .02238       -0.01086  -0.06528
Braves            33   66   .411   58.7  103.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  99.8 90.0 82.0 70.7 60.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              59   38   .613   99.6   62.4   91.78780    7.14224   98.93004         .18473    .30011
Cardinals         52   46   .579   89.7   72.3    7.86405   54.94404   62.80809       -5.59171   2.15930
Pirates           51   47   .478   82.3   79.7     .34775    8.59818    8.94593        1.22764  -4.18300
Brewers           41   55   .442   70.6   91.4     .00040     .01608     .01648       -0.00150  -0.01498
Reds              38   60   .380   61.2  100.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.9 89.4 78.2 73.0 68.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            58   40   .536   91.6   70.4   44.32100   32.92893   77.24993       -2.23022  -8.41950
Dodgers           56   44   .577   92.6   69.4   55.46213   28.82222   84.28436        5.56883  11.86855
Rockies           47   51   .487   77.0   85.0     .20638     .82093    1.02731         .20975  -0.28300
Padres            43   56   .453   71.6   90.4     .00607     .02700     .03307         .01267  -0.06139
Diamondbacks      41   57   .477   71.0   91.0     .00442     .01657     .02098         .00294  -0.20157

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.6 89.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.