Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun Sep 25 07:51:54 EDT 2022


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.9 90.5 88.2 83.5 77.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           93   58   .639   99.9   62.1   99.99550     .00450  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Blue Jays         85   67   .553   90.2   71.8     .00440   99.52040   99.52480        1.16550    .25961
Rays              84   68   .542   88.5   73.5     .00010   98.56350   98.56360         .02320   2.74420
Orioles           79   72   .486   83.5   78.5     .00000    2.09730    2.09730       -1.63360  -0.51040
Red Sox           72   79   .510   77.4   84.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01190

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.1 81.4 78.8 66.1 63.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Guardians         85   67   .527   91.1   70.9   99.99990     .00000   99.99990         .00460   5.26330
White Sox         76   76   .488   80.9   81.1     .00010     .02200     .02210       -0.07190  -6.99280
Twins             74   78   .495   79.3   82.7     .00000     .00010     .00010         .00000  -0.95030
Royals            62   90   .398   65.8   96.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            59   92   .392   63.6   98.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  105.7 90.2 72.1 69.2 59.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros           100   53   .629  105.7   56.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mariners          83   68   .533   90.2   71.8     .00000   99.79220   99.79220         .51220    .19830
Angels            66   86   .484   71.8   90.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           65   86   .469   69.5   92.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         56   96   .371   59.6  102.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.2 89.7 89.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  101.9 99.7 88.8 66.8 55.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              96   57   .591  101.5   60.5   71.50410   28.49590  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            94   58   .608  100.1   61.9   28.49590   71.50410  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          83   68   .557   88.8   73.2     .00000   73.56880   73.56880      -11.50570  -4.91610
Marlins           63   89   .439   66.8   95.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         52   99   .394   55.7  106.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.4 87.9 71.2 63.6 59.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         89   64   .555   94.4   67.6   99.75860     .23190   99.99050       -0.00390    .01950
Brewers           82   70   .527   87.9   74.1     .24140   48.12160   48.36300        6.67940  -5.95200
Cubs              66   86   .448   71.2   90.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              59   93   .390   63.5   98.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Pirates           56   96   .365   59.9  102.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  112.3 89.0 79.5 74.6 67.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers          105   47   .689  112.3   49.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            84   68   .520   89.0   73.0     .00000   78.07770   78.07770        4.83190  10.85190
Giants            74   78   .508   79.4   82.6     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00170  -0.00330
Diamondbacks      71   82   .476   74.6   87.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           65   87   .417   67.8   94.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  99.7 90.0 88.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.