Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Apr 25 08:02:08 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  103.4 91.8 83.3 75.2 63.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           17    5   .591  100.8   61.2   70.54232   20.87035   91.41266         .01186   8.52552
Blue Jays         14    8   .484   80.7   81.3    4.86375   19.54724   24.41099        3.82804   1.22820
Yankees           13    9   .554   90.3   71.7   20.89458   41.48473   62.37931        6.70920  24.54576
Rays               8   13   .505   79.0   83.0    3.45440   16.35680   19.81120       -2.54022   3.69591
Orioles            6   17   .443   66.6   95.4     .24495    1.70619    1.95114       -0.17876  -6.49831

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.1 81.8 75.6 69.5 61.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           12    9   .493   83.8   78.2   44.44123    4.79105   49.23227       -6.11331  -1.65207
Tigers             9   11   .463   76.2   85.8   17.19358    3.54782   20.74140        1.74010   2.02815
Twins              8   10   .474   78.4   83.6   24.24809    4.23784   28.48593       -1.67111 -22.25954
White Sox          5   15   .458   71.8   90.2    9.38908    1.78760   11.17667         .10604  -1.49539
Royals             5   16   .436   68.1   93.9    4.72803     .95044    5.67847       -0.58645  -5.94580

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.5 89.6 83.2 76.0 65.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            16    8   .524   89.1   72.9   33.15910   24.59058   57.74967        1.19714 -15.77011
Astros            16    9   .536   89.1   72.9   33.56329   23.99810   57.56139       -3.91984  22.62778
Athletics         13   11   .534   87.2   74.8   25.99718   23.72715   49.72432        3.34337  14.53393
Mariners          12   10   .471   77.6   84.4    6.29754   10.06668   16.36422       -0.98468 -17.11294
Rangers            8   17   .451   69.3   92.7     .98290    2.33743    3.32033       -0.94143  -6.45113

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  94.3 89.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.3 88.6 82.4 75.7 63.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              15    6   .522   87.7   74.3   33.14795   18.90589   52.05384        1.71690  -0.59224
Phillies          14    8   .521   86.1   75.9   27.13989   18.43425   45.57415       -5.88615   3.81916
Braves            12   10   .534   85.9   76.1   25.86890   18.75401   44.62291       -7.32185  -8.23340
Nationals         10   14   .519   81.2   80.8   13.06612   13.39841   26.46452       -2.14828 -18.69118
Marlins            6   17   .443   65.7   96.3     .77714     .98373    1.76087         .48203  -4.06041

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.4 87.6 81.4 74.5 63.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           15    9   .507   85.3   76.7   26.68328   16.24900   42.93228        3.02917  17.62609
Cardinals         13    9   .520   86.9   75.1   33.53179   16.16983   49.70162         .07882   5.69508
Pirates           12   10   .478   78.7   83.3   11.23718    9.05005   20.28724       -0.62559 -12.99359
Cubs              11    9   .517   85.2   76.8   27.46238   15.32237   42.78476        8.36008  14.40673
Reds               5   18   .443   66.7   95.3    1.08537    1.17222    2.25759         .15540  -4.36769

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.9 88.9 82.1 75.3 67.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Diamondbacks      16    6   .572   95.8   66.2   64.53588   16.59516   81.13104        6.71001  13.88406
Rockies           13   12   .473   76.0   86.0    4.16443    7.90865   12.07309        2.06636 -17.52760
Dodgers           11   11   .532   84.7   77.3   16.63502   22.76840   39.40341       -6.32324   6.22140
Giants            11   12   .520   82.9   79.1   12.46926   19.55663   32.02589        2.13310   9.11229
Padres             9   16   .478   73.0   89.0    2.19542    4.73139    6.92681       -2.42675  -4.29868

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  93.1 89.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.