Postseason Odds
<p>

<i>Playing the rest of the season a million times</i><p>

<i>by Clay Davenport</i>
<p>
See the <a href=http://www.claydavenport.com/stats/ps_oddspec.html>Forecast-adjusted version</a> of this report. 
<p> 

Generated Sun Sep 25 07:51:54 EDT 2022
<hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL East:  99.9 90.5 88.2 83.5 77.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=aleastdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=aleastwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=aleast.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Yankeespsodds.txt>Yankees</a>           93   58   .639   99.9   62.1   99.99550     .00450  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Bluepsodds.txt>Blue Jays</a>         85   67   .553   90.2   71.8     .00440   99.52040   99.52480        1.16550    .25961
<a href=Devilpsodds.txt>Rays</a>              84   68   .542   88.5   73.5     .00010   98.56350   98.56360         .02320   2.74420
<a href=Oriolespsodds.txt>Orioles</a>           79   72   .486   83.5   78.5     .00000    2.09730    2.09730       -1.63360  -0.51040
<a href=RedSoxpsodds.txt>Red Sox</a>           72   79   .510   77.4   84.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01190
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.1 81.4 78.8 66.1 63.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=alcentdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=alcentwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=alcent.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Guardianspsodds.txt>Guardians</a>         85   67   .527   91.1   70.9   99.99990     .00000   99.99990         .00460   5.26330
<a href=Whitepsodds.txt>White Sox</a>         76   76   .488   80.9   81.1     .00010     .02200     .02210       -0.07190  -6.99280
<a href=Twinspsodds.txt>Twins</a>             74   78   .495   79.3   82.7     .00000     .00010     .00010         .00000  -0.95030
<a href=Royalspsodds.txt>Royals</a>            62   90   .398   65.8   96.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Tigerspsodds.txt>Tigers</a>            59   92   .392   63.6   98.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL west:  105.7 90.2 72.1 69.2 59.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=alwestdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=alwestwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=alwest.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Astrospsodds.txt>Astros</a>           100   53   .629  105.7   56.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Marinerspsodds.txt>Mariners</a>          83   68   .533   90.2   71.8     .00000   99.79220   99.79220         .51220    .19830
<a href=Angelspsodds.txt>Angels</a>            66   86   .484   71.8   90.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Rangerspsodds.txt>Rangers</a>           65   86   .469   69.5   92.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Athleticspsodds.txt>Athletics</a>         56   96   .371   59.6  102.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.2 89.7 89.9
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL East:  101.9 99.7 88.8 66.8 55.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=nleastdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=nleastwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=nleast.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Metspsodds.txt>Mets</a>              96   57   .591  101.5   60.5   71.50410   28.49590  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Bravespsodds.txt>Braves</a>            94   58   .608  100.1   61.9   28.49590   71.50410  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Philliespsodds.txt>Phillies</a>          83   68   .557   88.8   73.2     .00000   73.56880   73.56880      -11.50570  -4.91610
<a href=Marlinspsodds.txt>Marlins</a>           63   89   .439   66.8   95.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Nationalspsodds.txt>Nationals</a>         52   99   .394   55.7  106.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.4 87.9 71.2 63.6 59.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=nlcentdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=nlcentwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=nlcent.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Cardinalspsodds.txt>Cardinals</a>         89   64   .555   94.4   67.6   99.75860     .23190   99.99050       -0.00390    .01950
<a href=Brewerspsodds.txt>Brewers</a>           82   70   .527   87.9   74.1     .24140   48.12160   48.36300        6.67940  -5.95200
<a href=Cubspsodds.txt>Cubs</a>              66   86   .448   71.2   90.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Redspsodds.txt>Reds</a>              59   93   .390   63.5   98.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Piratespsodds.txt>Pirates</a>           56   96   .365   59.9  102.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL West:  112.3 89.0 79.5 74.6 67.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=nlwestdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=nlwestwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=nlwest.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Dodgerspsodds.txt>Dodgers</a>          105   47   .689  112.3   49.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Padrespsodds.txt>Padres</a>            84   68   .520   89.0   73.0     .00000   78.07770   78.07770        4.83190  10.85190
<a href=Giantspsodds.txt>Giants</a>            74   78   .508   79.4   82.6     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00170  -0.00330
<a href=Diamondbackspsodds.txt>Diamondbacks</a>      71   82   .476   74.6   87.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Rockiespsodds.txt>Rockies</a>           65   87   .417   67.8   94.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  99.7 90.0 88.6
</pre>
<hr size=2>

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the <a
href=http://claydavenport.com/stats/standings.html>Adjusted
Standings Report</a>. <p>

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3
from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the
rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning
percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal
distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used
for the remainder of the season in that iteration.  To simulate the normal 4%
home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the
visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the <a
href=http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm>log5 method</a>.

<b>W</b> and <b>L</b> are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.<p>

<b>Pct3</b> is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
regression-to-mean component.<p>

<b>Avg W</b> and <b>Avg L</b> are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.<p>

<b>Champions</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!<p>

<b>Wild Card</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As
with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
<p>

<b>Playoffs</b> is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.<p>