Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Jun 26 07:52:14 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.5 90.1 81.6 76.6 71.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 48 32 .602 97.6 64.4 79.82220 19.99170 99.81390 -0.04919 -0.05790 Rays 45 33 .538 90.5 71.5 19.38770 75.91930 95.30700 2.39140 4.68030 Blue Jays 39 42 .497 79.4 82.6 .58870 39.33590 39.92460 -6.64040 -15.67350 Orioles 38 44 .486 76.9 85.1 .15800 22.39920 22.55720 -0.09900 9.35320 Red Sox 33 46 .495 73.5 88.5 .04340 9.31360 9.35700 2.00700 3.55130
Average wins by position in AL Central: 86.9 81.7 77.4 73.5 68.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 42 39 .491 83.5 78.5 46.81520 23.18360 69.99880 .02551 -4.19540 White Sox 41 38 .494 82.8 79.2 41.18430 24.26660 65.45090 -0.72511 -6.09950 Twins 38 44 .468 75.7 86.3 6.51830 11.17580 17.69410 .39100 .71730 Tigers 34 47 .500 74.7 87.3 4.24480 8.91520 13.16000 -2.29540 5.21260 Royals 34 48 .458 71.2 90.8 1.23740 2.96840 4.20580 -2.26980 -0.84920
Average wins by position in AL west: 85.3 81.0 77.6 74.3 69.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mariners 41 41 .505 81.3 80.7 39.31470 17.65640 56.97110 -4.37560 -11.64070 Astros 40 43 .464 77.2 84.8 12.64870 12.62330 25.27200 2.52530 10.92220 Athletics 39 42 .454 76.1 85.9 10.43300 10.48750 20.92050 3.27230 -8.80480 Rangers 39 42 .506 80.7 81.3 33.87810 17.74290 51.62100 5.85800 10.67270 Angels 34 48 .480 72.6 89.4 3.72550 4.02060 7.74610 -0.01600 2.21140 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.3 84.2 84.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.4 87.4 82.8 78.0 69.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 48 31 .545 93.4 68.6 76.33540 17.91830 94.25370 -0.52850 -3.19090 Phillies 45 36 .480 83.2 78.8 7.43410 33.62940 41.06350 6.02170 18.62450 Marlins 42 39 .535 85.5 76.5 13.71500 44.58080 58.29580 .17450 9.44090 Nationals 41 41 .483 79.9 82.1 2.46700 17.86730 20.33430 -6.58300 -18.79760 Mets 34 47 .463 70.2 91.8 .04850 .55960 .60810 -0.08450 -3.88880
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.1 89.1 84.3 79.6 70.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 49 29 .593 98.7 63.3 89.16010 10.03830 99.19840 -0.05800 .54480 Cubs 44 37 .535 86.3 75.7 6.05180 58.14310 64.19490 .40650 18.22520 Cardinals 42 36 .493 82.4 79.6 1.75220 34.37210 36.12430 -0.34060 -12.06060 Pirates 41 40 .546 84.2 77.8 3.02500 45.46280 48.48780 3.15880 -5.85420 Reds 37 42 .428 70.7 91.3 .01090 .97030 .98120 .02480 -0.26040
Average wins by position in NL West: 104.7 82.9 77.6 72.5 64.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 52 29 .641 104.7 57.3 99.86640 .12120 99.98760 .00250 .00301 Padres 42 37 .458 79.0 83.0 .06810 16.04770 16.11580 -0.30680 6.21970 Diamondbacks 41 39 .469 79.3 82.7 .06160 17.30710 17.36870 -0.40620 -6.26820 Giants 33 47 .488 74.0 88.0 .00390 2.95620 2.96010 -1.48060 -2.73940 Rockies 32 49 .409 64.7 97.3 .00000 .02580 .02580 -0.00060 .00200 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.7 87.6 85.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
