Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Sep 30 07:53:20 EDT 2019


Average wins by position in AL East:  103.0 96.0 84.0 67.0 54.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees          103   59   .568  103.0   59.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Rays              96   66   .584   96.0   66.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  37.97970
Red Sox           84   78   .587   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Blue Jays         67   95   .432   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Orioles           54  108   .355   54.0  108.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  101.0 93.0 72.0 59.0 47.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins            101   61   .568  101.0   61.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .02697
Indians           93   69   .530   93.0   69.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -42.27018
White Sox         72   89   .420   72.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Royals            59  103   .391   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            47  114   .335   47.0  114.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  107.0 97.0 78.0 72.0 68.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros           107   55   .674  107.0   55.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         97   65   .588   97.0   65.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   4.26350
Rangers           78   84   .450   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Angels            72   90   .446   72.0   90.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Mariners          68   94   .445   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  97.0 96.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.0 93.0 86.0 81.0 57.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            97   65   .538   97.0   65.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         93   69   .590   93.0   69.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   1.60664
Mets              86   76   .530   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -2.27003
Phillies          81   81   .469   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.24035
Marlins           57  105   .404   57.0  105.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.0 89.0 84.0 75.0 69.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         91   71   .545   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Brewers           89   73   .523   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   2.66810
Cubs              84   78   .538   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -1.76435
Reds              75   87   .521   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Pirates           69   93   .424   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  106.0 85.0 77.0 71.0 70.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers          106   56   .662  106.0   56.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      85   77   .523   85.0   77.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            77   85   .443   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           71   91   .454   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            70   92   .465   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  93.0 89.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.