Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Mar 29 07:52:08 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.7 87.9 81.3 74.7 65.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 3 0 .501 82.7 79.3 22.45320 22.42460 44.87780 Blue Jays 2 0 .499 81.8 80.2 21.43110 21.15740 42.58850 Orioles 1 1 .500 80.9 81.1 19.17140 20.61540 39.78680 Red Sox 1 1 .500 81.1 80.9 19.52550 20.83290 40.35840 Rays 0 2 .500 80.1 81.9 17.41880 19.71840 37.13720
Average wins by position in AL Central: 96.3 87.5 80.9 74.4 65.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 2 1 .500 81.6 80.4 21.50380 20.31740 41.82120 Tigers 2 1 .500 81.6 80.4 21.00180 20.67930 41.68110 Twins 1 1 .500 81.1 80.9 20.37420 19.97450 40.34870 Royals 0 2 .501 80.2 81.8 18.48950 19.16050 37.65000 White Sox 0 2 .501 80.2 81.8 18.63070 19.14770 37.77840
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.0 87.3 80.7 74.2 65.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 2 1 .500 81.6 80.4 21.75220 20.20710 41.95930 Rangers 1 1 .500 81.1 80.9 20.97800 19.35940 40.33740 Astros 1 2 .501 80.5 81.5 18.93920 19.04680 37.98600 Mariners 1 2 .499 80.2 81.8 19.12550 18.73510 37.86060 Athletics 0 2 .501 80.2 81.8 19.20510 18.62350 37.82860 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.2 88.8 88.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.8 88.1 81.5 74.9 66.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 2 0 .498 81.6 80.4 20.35030 21.30250 41.65280 Marlins 2 0 .499 81.8 80.2 20.72360 21.51170 42.23530 Mets 2 0 .499 81.8 80.2 20.66460 21.28990 41.95450 Nationals 1 1 .500 81.1 80.9 19.29630 21.01460 40.31090 Phillies 1 1 .500 81.0 81.0 18.96520 20.80400 39.76920
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.6 87.8 81.2 74.5 65.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 2 0 .499 81.8 80.2 21.24430 20.99670 42.24100 Cardinals 2 0 .499 81.8 80.2 21.29380 20.90400 42.19780 Cubs 1 1 .500 80.9 81.1 19.46600 20.40460 39.87060 Reds 1 1 .501 81.1 80.9 19.93170 20.58300 40.51470 Pirates 0 2 .501 80.3 81.7 18.06420 19.57790 37.64210
Average wins by position in NL West: 95.6 86.9 80.4 73.9 65.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 3 0 .499 82.2 79.8 24.22080 19.59410 43.81490 Padres 1 2 .500 80.4 81.6 19.59050 18.48760 38.07810 Rockies 0 2 .501 80.3 81.7 19.87910 18.14670 38.02580 Diamondbacks 0 3 .501 79.7 82.3 18.51490 17.74810 36.26300 Giants 0 3 .501 79.5 82.5 17.79470 17.63460 35.42930 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.2 88.8 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
