Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Jun 22 08:00:27 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.0 88.3 83.0 77.7 71.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 40 32 .505 83.7 78.3 6.71593 36.13796 42.85389 -4.71596 -5.62691 Yankees 39 30 .614 96.2 65.8 81.14724 15.15344 96.30068 .77028 -2.26427 Rays 39 36 .549 86.1 75.9 10.78923 48.82626 59.61549 5.82609 1.77919 Blue Jays 35 36 .487 77.8 84.2 1.13145 11.61500 12.74645 1.48041 .01267 Orioles 35 36 .443 73.9 88.1 .21614 4.07097 4.28711 -1.27706 -3.60836
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.2 82.9 78.3 74.4 69.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 38 32 .572 91.6 70.4 85.17301 5.03010 90.20310 1.39134 33.85049 Twins 36 33 .468 78.4 83.6 5.75325 10.26191 16.01516 3.00263 -12.83466 Royals 35 36 .472 77.7 84.3 4.71536 8.48006 13.19542 1.91262 2.77998 Tigers 32 39 .478 75.3 86.7 2.64161 4.07414 6.71575 -1.37011 -9.10126 White Sox 31 39 .477 74.3 87.7 1.71678 3.38153 5.09830 -2.20184 -3.19357
Average wins by position in AL west: 103.5 84.7 80.0 76.1 71.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 49 24 .611 103.5 58.5 99.13458 .67467 99.80925 .05773 .67349 Mariners 37 37 .494 79.5 82.5 .36939 17.71807 18.08746 .51003 -2.21068 Angels 37 38 .496 79.2 82.8 .25596 16.52432 16.78028 -1.85537 -4.74922 Rangers 35 36 .477 77.3 84.7 .14279 10.61318 10.75597 -2.13619 1.46205 Athletics 31 41 .498 76.1 85.9 .09728 7.43839 7.53567 -1.39462 3.03106 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 89.4 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.9 82.3 75.5 69.5 59.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 43 29 .543 93.4 68.6 90.00850 1.61756 91.62606 -0.49758 3.60338 Braves 33 38 .461 74.8 87.2 1.33043 1.04206 2.37250 .28992 -0.49567 Marlins 32 38 .511 80.9 81.1 8.31540 5.28010 13.59550 1.15190 -4.92399 Mets 31 40 .444 71.2 90.8 .34312 .24459 .58771 -0.10099 -2.17124 Phillies 22 48 .408 60.5 101.5 .00255 .00093 .00348 -0.00195 -0.02415
Average wins by position in NL Central: 87.7 82.9 79.2 75.2 69.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 39 35 .479 81.4 80.6 26.07787 1.68238 27.76025 3.34876 -2.38557 Cubs 36 35 .504 82.7 79.3 35.13124 1.80867 36.93991 -6.33207 6.02646 Cardinals 33 37 .512 81.5 80.5 27.65382 1.75571 29.40953 2.11580 -4.80147 Pirates 33 39 .467 76.0 86.0 7.79522 .47293 8.26815 .26125 -1.26341 Reds 30 41 .474 73.1 88.9 3.34185 .24557 3.58742 -0.45249 -1.52711
Average wins by position in NL West: 103.9 97.3 91.0 69.8 62.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 47 26 .602 101.9 60.1 65.10928 34.33165 99.44093 .08437 1.73898 Rockies 47 27 .525 93.7 68.3 11.25858 79.23646 90.49505 -2.07559 3.10154 Diamondbacks 45 27 .571 96.6 65.4 23.63198 72.21127 95.84325 2.19234 3.31715 Padres 29 44 .433 67.6 94.4 .00015 .05963 .05978 .02178 -0.11837 Giants 27 47 .424 64.3 97.7 .00000 .01050 .01050 -0.00543 -0.07655 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 97.3 91.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
