Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon May 23 07:51:38 EDT 2022
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.0 89.6 84.1 78.7 71.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 29 12 .550 95.6 66.4 66.15750 19.07581 85.23331 -5.44036 -0.78051 Rays 24 17 .507 84.6 77.4 13.44378 24.14554 37.58932 -1.49359 3.36265 Blue Jays 22 19 .510 84.0 78.0 10.64678 24.15082 34.79761 -9.38333 -6.24055 Red Sox 19 22 .519 82.5 79.5 8.51733 19.34182 27.85915 5.13357 16.61717 Orioles 18 25 .476 75.1 87.9 1.23460 5.12850 6.36310 .61170 -1.47430
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.5 83.9 77.5 69.9 61.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 25 16 .505 87.0 75.0 48.71378 8.89359 57.60737 3.21743 13.27435 White Sox 21 20 .478 80.4 81.6 18.04233 6.95928 25.00161 8.35522 7.07445 Guardians 16 20 .521 83.1 77.9 31.00530 9.27330 40.27860 -6.09440 -13.02640 Royals 14 26 .423 65.3 96.7 .63068 .27088 .90157 -0.51924 -1.32628 Tigers 14 26 .439 68.3 93.7 1.60790 .59179 2.19969 -0.04675 -2.39716
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.8 90.8 80.0 72.6 64.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 27 15 .571 96.7 65.3 60.81385 28.37636 89.19021 1.92140 -0.06262 Angels 26 17 .562 93.0 69.0 36.70533 41.58083 78.28616 6.91753 -6.46661 Rangers 18 22 .461 74.3 87.7 .86418 4.87919 5.74337 -1.17532 2.52144 Mariners 17 25 .488 76.0 86.0 1.48952 6.68398 8.17350 -1.54194 -10.33779 Athletics 17 26 .431 67.3 94.7 .12713 .64830 .77543 -0.46190 -0.73783 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.4 88.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.8 88.1 82.3 76.2 65.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 28 15 .551 92.7 69.3 59.92578 13.91473 73.84051 .13129 -5.67482 Braves 19 22 .526 81.9 80.1 11.29417 11.18050 22.47466 -2.52590 5.50412 Phillies 19 22 .544 84.3 77.7 16.44333 15.73827 32.18159 2.63689 -10.30009 Marlins 18 22 .532 82.1 79.9 12.06237 10.94696 23.00932 3.27187 -2.73508 Nationals 14 28 .454 67.1 94.9 .27436 .38020 .65456 .08104 -1.84217
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.6 86.5 75.2 66.4 57.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 26 15 .537 91.9 70.1 57.20742 15.07969 72.28711 -4.64825 5.28086 Cardinals 23 18 .532 89.1 72.9 39.83303 18.91462 58.74765 5.63604 3.36290 Cubs 16 24 .472 74.0 88.0 2.65829 2.47740 5.13569 .78654 -1.67929 Pirates 16 24 .408 65.2 96.8 .21870 .21259 .43129 -0.19317 -2.74751 Reds 12 28 .402 61.4 100.6 .08256 .05265 .13521 .03742 .02136
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.6 92.5 85.8 78.9 69.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 27 13 .578 96.8 65.2 55.75363 29.19867 84.95230 -1.56844 14.30632 Padres 27 14 .546 92.7 69.3 31.29923 39.70208 71.00130 9.90877 20.19067 Giants 22 18 .524 85.5 76.5 9.46441 26.48870 35.95311 -9.02831 -14.69422 Diamondbacks 21 22 .504 80.8 81.2 3.15393 13.75341 16.90734 -4.06469 -7.56543 Rockies 19 21 .450 71.3 90.7 .32882 1.95954 2.28836 -0.46110 -1.42761 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 94.1 89.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
