Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Jul 18 07:52:20 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.3 90.5 87.1 83.0 70.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 55 41 .522 88.6 73.4 16.57640 56.43010 73.00650 .01970 -7.66760 Yankees 53 43 .618 93.8 68.2 64.17840 31.01770 95.19610 .03430 -1.02180 Red Sox 53 45 .562 87.9 74.1 13.36480 55.87030 69.23510 -0.04660 12.48880 Rays 50 47 .546 85.5 76.5 5.87820 41.92410 47.80230 .03600 -19.08440 Orioles 43 52 .419 70.1 91.9 .00220 .10130 .10350 .00510 -0.19430
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.1 83.7 79.3 74.7 56.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 59 38 .550 95.0 67.0 95.94250 2.23470 98.17720 -0.00690 -1.32660 Twins 47 49 .501 80.7 81.3 2.12610 12.25140 14.37750 -0.00650 1.10370 Royals 47 50 .501 80.2 81.8 1.58660 9.90010 11.48670 -0.03950 -5.73280 Guardians 46 49 .446 76.9 85.1 .34480 3.18550 3.53030 -0.00090 .32640 White Sox 32 65 .386 56.2 105.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.3 87.8 82.2 75.0 67.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 56 40 .542 92.0 70.0 65.46710 25.08480 90.55190 .01900 -3.79560 Mariners 51 45 .547 88.2 73.8 29.80920 41.08100 70.89020 .08810 20.88850 Rangers 48 49 .531 82.6 79.4 4.53830 19.61220 24.15050 -0.09780 3.87870 Angels 47 49 .432 75.1 86.9 .18470 1.29340 1.47810 -0.00330 .13760 Athletics 41 57 .423 67.6 94.4 .00070 .01340 .01410 -0.00070 -0.00060 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.3 88.7 88.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.8 88.3 77.5 72.2 64.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 55 41 .545 91.1 70.9 54.09570 33.25140 87.34710 .03850 -2.68230 Mets 55 42 .550 90.9 71.1 45.68620 39.30880 84.99500 -0.03780 2.92780 Marlins 44 51 .460 74.3 87.7 .09290 .71050 .80340 -0.01520 .19290 Braves 42 53 .497 74.9 87.1 .12510 .86610 .99120 .00120 .20170 Nationals 38 58 .418 65.2 96.8 .00010 .00150 .00160 .00040 -0.00470
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.3 90.4 85.1 80.1 71.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 57 39 .587 96.6 65.4 80.32320 18.15220 98.47540 .00630 1.11740 Brewers 56 40 .531 90.0 72.0 16.63660 63.11560 79.75220 .00000 7.58410 Cardinals 51 46 .517 84.6 77.4 2.37420 33.83890 36.21310 -0.07840 -8.95920 Reds 50 47 .501 81.5 80.5 .66570 14.88020 15.54590 .01080 -0.26970 Pirates 39 58 .483 71.3 90.7 .00030 .10140 .10170 -0.00170 -0.10140
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.0 88.1 83.9 79.1 44.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 58 39 .531 93.1 68.9 75.90950 17.33560 93.24510 -0.03329 2.16090 Padres 52 44 .513 86.8 75.2 15.44390 40.55160 55.99550 -0.03400 7.11830 Giants 52 45 .493 84.3 77.7 7.11240 27.10020 34.21260 .08160 -3.09470 Diamondbacks 47 50 .514 80.9 81.1 1.53420 10.78600 12.32020 .06160 -6.19110 Rockies 22 74 .334 44.1 117.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.1 89.2 86.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
