Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Aug 29 07:25:57 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.5 85.0 81.6 79.0 70.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           76   56   .530   92.4   69.6   96.09628    1.17694   97.27322        1.81152  -0.25436
Yankees           69   63   .496   83.8   78.2    3.25389    6.62366    9.87755       -3.73598   5.14984
Blue Jays         67   66   .499   81.2   80.8     .48803    1.40244    1.89046       -0.13836  -5.16356
Rays              65   69   .543   80.7   81.3     .16181     .67276     .83457       -0.71060  -1.34508
Red Sox           58   75   .453   70.4   91.6     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00005  -0.00007

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.5 87.5 83.2 74.1 70.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            74   59   .505   89.2   72.8   55.24877   18.11868   73.36745       -6.13279  -0.83675
Tigers            72   60   .530   88.3   73.7   39.78377   21.93380   61.71757        6.27442  -2.09287
Indians           68   64   .518   83.8   78.2    4.96732    5.92493   10.89224        2.62241   2.42432
White Sox         60   73   .458   72.7   89.3     .00015     .00008     .00023       -0.00039  -0.01762
Twins             59   74   .465   72.1   89.9     .00000     .00005     .00005         .00005  -0.00218

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.8 94.6 87.2 69.0 62.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            80   53   .587   96.9   65.1   62.59513   37.21260   99.80773         .10935    .26494
Athletics         78   55   .593   95.5   66.5   36.97118   62.48990   99.46108       -0.12046    .61382
Mariners          72   60   .541   87.3   74.7     .43368   44.44416   44.87785         .02089   1.25957
Astros            57   78   .453   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           52   81   .410   63.1   98.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  94.2 88.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.9 84.7 79.5 75.8 72.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         75   57   .558   91.8   70.2   94.70057    3.94125   98.64182       -0.26291  -0.66370
Braves            70   64   .501   84.6   77.4    5.08900   34.73070   39.81970        5.36026    .57382
Marlins           65   67   .476   79.1   82.9     .20630    2.03822    2.24452       -0.34385  -2.67278
Mets              62   72   .464   75.4   86.6     .00363     .03883     .04246       -0.10702  -0.25394
Phillies          61   72   .452   73.6   88.4     .00050     .01044     .01094       -0.00551    .00777

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.4 86.7 83.5 78.2 72.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           73   60   .522   88.1   73.9   53.20687   29.77736   82.98423       -2.08595  -6.84671
Cardinals         71   61   .524   87.1   74.9   37.13990   36.78241   73.92231       -2.60966 -10.20686
Pirates           69   64   .526   84.4   77.6    9.45927   28.55711   38.01637       -3.61606   9.52560
Reds              65   69   .488   78.2   83.8     .19303    1.00319    1.19623         .21593  -0.11232
Cubs              59   74   .487   72.6   89.4     .00093     .00344     .00437       -0.01044  -0.00006

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.2 86.1 76.6 69.0 65.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           76   58   .554   92.0   70.0   90.72103    8.25402   98.97505       -0.15989   1.57587
Giants            71   62   .515   86.2   75.8    9.26848   54.60984   63.87833        3.70360   9.65592
Padres            62   70   .464   76.6   85.4     .01048     .25320     .26368       -0.07849  -0.58255
Diamondbacks      55   78   .436   67.8   94.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00005
Rockies           53   80   .453   66.4   95.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  87.6 85.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.