Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Aug 1 07:26:04 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 90.3 86.5 82.8 79.1 71.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 60 47 .502 87.6 74.4 45.06583 19.28177 64.34760 -5.31295 7.32368 Blue Jays 60 50 .524 87.2 74.8 41.06313 20.41048 61.47361 5.00697 24.86483 Yankees 55 52 .488 81.8 80.2 7.27430 8.16667 15.44097 -0.02821 -15.26782 Rays 53 55 .538 81.7 80.3 6.56641 7.65713 14.22354 -0.50210 -0.40618 Red Sox 48 60 .465 72.1 89.9 .03033 .05874 .08908 -0.00190 -0.81057
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.5 84.2 80.8 77.5 71.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 58 47 .534 88.7 73.3 74.85797 4.68028 79.53825 -4.01872 -9.60286 Royals 55 52 .487 82.1 79.9 11.51367 6.87737 18.39104 2.56150 .01917 Indians 53 55 .512 81.7 80.3 10.05071 6.03933 16.09004 -2.17314 -4.27287 White Sox 53 56 .490 79.0 83.0 3.40154 2.33536 5.73690 1.71205 3.03307 Twins 48 59 .456 72.5 89.5 .17612 .04739 .22351 -0.06436 -0.33980
Average wins by position in AL west: 100.6 95.0 83.7 69.0 63.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 66 41 .602 99.4 62.6 69.29017 30.53125 99.82141 -0.00960 -0.04347 Angels 64 43 .590 96.1 65.9 30.58622 68.41618 99.00240 .39891 1.11518 Mariners 56 52 .528 83.8 78.2 .12362 25.49721 25.62082 2.43334 -5.59726 Astros 44 65 .453 67.9 94.1 .00000 .00084 .00084 -0.00178 -0.01498 Rangers 43 65 .415 64.3 97.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.9 87.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 90.3 84.2 80.0 76.3 70.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 58 48 .547 89.5 72.5 78.44369 9.37789 87.82158 -3.03596 -0.49499 Braves 58 51 .492 83.8 78.2 16.78085 22.50989 39.29074 -1.95343 -1.65041 Marlins 53 55 .473 78.4 83.6 2.09235 4.40916 6.50150 -1.16270 4.23007 Mets 52 56 .488 78.5 83.5 2.64609 4.02970 6.67579 .72327 3.09954 Phillies 48 61 .447 71.2 90.8 .03704 .06043 .09747 .04986 .04959
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.3 86.9 83.8 79.9 70.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 60 49 .514 86.7 75.3 33.61286 31.86930 65.48215 .45741 -5.20889 Cardinals 57 50 .535 87.1 74.9 38.49996 30.93277 69.43272 6.05573 2.61498 Pirates 57 51 .523 85.4 76.6 22.32556 32.03917 54.36473 -5.47892 .37549 Reds 54 54 .509 81.5 80.5 5.55329 14.38849 19.94178 2.68121 -3.44404 Cubs 45 62 .478 70.4 91.6 .00833 .05800 .06634 .01813 .00346
Average wins by position in NL West: 92.5 85.0 75.4 71.5 67.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 62 47 .554 92.1 69.9 86.39015 9.75470 96.14485 1.20913 19.90993 Giants 58 50 .502 85.3 76.7 13.54887 40.21621 53.76508 .57152 -19.45387 Padres 48 60 .449 72.6 89.4 .04062 .21028 .25090 -0.16761 -0.02652 Diamondbacks 48 61 .447 72.2 89.8 .01740 .12661 .14401 .04831 .02002 Rockies 44 64 .463 69.6 92.4 .00297 .01739 .02036 -0.01595 -0.02437 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 87.9 85.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
