Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Sep 26 07:59:34 EDT 2016
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.6 89.8 87.4 82.2 68.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 92 64 .630 95.6 66.4 99.71300 .28700 100.00000 .00000 .47956 Blue Jays 86 69 .569 89.6 72.4 .28700 94.01908 94.30608 4.88007 30.42701 Orioles 85 71 .519 87.7 74.3 .00000 63.34878 63.34878 13.11575 -10.31186 Yankees 79 76 .499 82.2 79.8 .00000 .03350 .03350 -0.17828 -1.62335 Rays 65 90 .514 68.5 93.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.7 86.6 82.1 77.7 58.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 90 65 .566 93.7 68.3 99.95290 .04691 99.99981 -0.00014 .10917 Tigers 83 72 .516 86.6 75.4 .04710 25.84319 25.89029 -21.95929 3.25127 Royals 79 77 .465 82.1 79.9 .00000 .00039 .00039 -0.00065 -0.32695 White Sox 74 81 .472 77.7 84.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00002 Twins 56 100 .427 58.5 103.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.2 86.4 84.6 72.3 69.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 92 64 .488 95.2 66.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00312 Mariners 82 73 .509 85.8 76.2 .00000 11.80390 11.80390 2.96969 -13.84994 Astros 82 74 .503 85.2 76.8 .00000 4.61726 4.61726 1.17284 -8.15800 Angels 69 87 .445 72.1 89.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 67 88 .443 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 89.8 87.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.7 86.1 79.6 72.6 66.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 91 64 .595 95.7 66.3 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00013 Mets 83 73 .508 86.1 75.9 .00000 81.17803 81.17803 17.51947 -8.92434 Marlins 77 78 .488 79.6 81.4 .00000 .01270 .01270 -0.04542 -0.56644 Phillies 70 86 .404 72.6 89.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 63 92 .444 66.2 94.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 103.6 85.5 79.6 72.6 67.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 99 56 .649 103.6 58.4 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 81 74 .542 85.5 76.5 .00000 65.15808 65.15808 -4.09867 21.20645 Pirates 77 78 .464 79.6 82.4 .00000 .03092 .03092 -0.06450 -0.14558 Brewers 70 86 .468 72.6 89.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 65 90 .408 67.2 94.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.3 85.2 76.0 68.8 66.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 90 66 .570 93.3 68.7 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00002 .28778 Giants 82 74 .531 85.2 76.8 .00000 53.62027 53.62027 -13.31090 -11.79262 Rockies 73 83 .496 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.06540 Padres 66 90 .427 68.5 93.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 64 91 .442 66.9 95.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 86.7 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
