Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Sep 25 08:02:27 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.9 90.7 79.2 77.0 74.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 91 64 .555 94.9 67.1 99.02205 .97795 100.00000 .00000 .00065 Yankees 86 69 .622 90.7 71.3 .97795 99.02205 100.00000 .00000 .05223 Rays 76 80 .537 79.0 83.0 .00000 .01204 .01204 -0.36250 -1.25751 Orioles 75 82 .462 77.1 84.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.51318 Blue Jays 73 83 .458 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00050
Average wins by position in AL Central: 102.2 84.8 79.3 66.0 64.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 98 58 .637 102.2 59.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 82 74 .493 84.8 77.2 .00000 98.62042 98.62042 2.49784 28.75085 Royals 76 79 .462 79.3 82.7 .00000 .07044 .07044 -0.84242 -1.26966 White Sox 63 92 .433 65.7 96.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 62 94 .432 64.5 97.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.7 81.0 79.4 77.7 75.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 95 60 .596 98.7 63.3 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 77 78 .497 80.7 81.3 .00000 1.18799 1.18799 -0.19296 -21.14023 Rangers 76 79 .490 79.5 82.5 .00000 .10911 .10911 -1.07335 -1.75479 Mariners 75 81 .498 77.8 84.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.02661 -2.86787 Athletics 72 83 .492 75.5 86.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.7 84.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 98.5 76.7 73.5 69.6 64.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 94 61 .566 98.5 63.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 73 82 .473 76.6 85.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 70 84 .444 73.6 88.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 66 89 .441 69.6 92.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 62 94 .422 64.8 97.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.8 85.8 84.1 73.4 68.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 87 68 .555 90.8 71.2 99.55700 .29263 99.84963 .82035 7.38401 Brewers 82 74 .507 85.1 76.9 .05330 12.97836 13.03166 -12.35088 -4.53622 Cardinals 81 74 .541 84.8 77.2 .38970 11.11833 11.50803 -12.45543 5.98458 Pirates 71 85 .434 73.4 88.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 66 90 .453 68.3 93.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.9 93.8 87.0 72.2 63.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 99 57 .608 102.9 59.1 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 90 66 .574 93.8 68.2 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00010 .00922 Rockies 84 72 .493 87.0 75.0 .00000 75.61068 75.61068 23.98586 -8.84159 Padres 70 86 .417 72.2 89.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 61 95 .409 63.5 98.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.8 87.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
