Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Sep 18 07:25:42 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  97.1 83.5 81.1 79.2 70.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           92   60   .549   97.5   64.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .07538
Blue Jays         77   74   .509   82.5   79.5     .00000     .44616     .44616       -0.75782  -5.55314
Yankees           77   74   .491   82.5   79.5     .00000     .29710     .29710         .11346  -1.40770
Rays              74   79   .543   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00014  -0.00078
Red Sox           66   86   .451   70.3   91.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.9 88.0 83.5 73.1 69.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            84   68   .537   89.8   72.2   69.18757   25.89130   95.07887       -1.01839  17.27652
Royals            83   68   .504   88.5   73.5   30.68112   50.37177   81.05288       11.98032  -1.56102
Indians           78   73   .511   83.7   78.3     .13132    2.68005    2.81137         .90658  -1.09593
White Sox         69   83   .454   73.2   88.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             65   87   .455   69.7   92.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  100.8 89.6 86.5 71.9 63.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            95   57   .591  100.7   61.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00195
Athletics         83   68   .582   89.8   72.2     .00000   95.24518   95.24518       -1.84473  -0.75895
Mariners          81   70   .533   86.3   75.7     .00000   25.06845   25.06845       -9.37925  -6.97632
Astros            67   85   .473   71.9   90.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           59   92   .412   63.1   98.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  90.2 87.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.1 81.0 79.3 77.0 74.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         87   64   .573   93.7   68.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .10324
Braves            76   76   .487   81.1   80.9     .00000     .69395     .69395         .17956 -19.36120
Marlins           74   77   .477   78.9   83.1     .00000     .00557     .00557         .00093  -0.56834
Mets              73   80   .461   76.9   85.1     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00007  -0.14999
Phillies          70   82   .449   74.3   87.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00043

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.3 87.3 83.6 75.2 72.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         84   68   .525   89.5   72.5   84.29407   15.23747   99.53154        1.10159   1.77275
Pirates           81   70   .548   87.1   74.9   15.08872   72.81230   87.90102        7.26072  20.66430
Brewers           79   73   .504   83.9   78.1     .61722   11.65953   12.27675       -9.43836  -3.56079
Reds              71   82   .471   75.1   86.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01645
Cubs              68   84   .477   72.6   89.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.2 88.8 74.9 67.2 64.7
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           86   66   .570   91.9   70.1   83.26590   16.72948   99.99538         .00130    .05988
Giants            84   68   .526   89.4   72.6   16.73410   82.86171   99.59581         .89433   1.05780
Padres            70   81   .444   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00076
Diamondbacks      62   90   .433   66.4   95.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           61   91   .458   65.7   96.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  89.4 86.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.