Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Aug 1 07:26:04 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  90.3 86.5 82.8 79.1 71.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           60   47   .502   87.6   74.4   45.06583   19.28177   64.34760       -5.31295   7.32368
Blue Jays         60   50   .524   87.2   74.8   41.06313   20.41048   61.47361        5.00697  24.86483
Yankees           55   52   .488   81.8   80.2    7.27430    8.16667   15.44097       -0.02821 -15.26782
Rays              53   55   .538   81.7   80.3    6.56641    7.65713   14.22354       -0.50210  -0.40618
Red Sox           48   60   .465   72.1   89.9     .03033     .05874     .08908       -0.00190  -0.81057

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.5 84.2 80.8 77.5 71.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            58   47   .534   88.7   73.3   74.85797    4.68028   79.53825       -4.01872  -9.60286
Royals            55   52   .487   82.1   79.9   11.51367    6.87737   18.39104        2.56150    .01917
Indians           53   55   .512   81.7   80.3   10.05071    6.03933   16.09004       -2.17314  -4.27287
White Sox         53   56   .490   79.0   83.0    3.40154    2.33536    5.73690        1.71205   3.03307
Twins             48   59   .456   72.5   89.5     .17612     .04739     .22351       -0.06436  -0.33980

Average wins by position in AL west:  100.6 95.0 83.7 69.0 63.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Athletics         66   41   .602   99.4   62.6   69.29017   30.53125   99.82141       -0.00960  -0.04347
Angels            64   43   .590   96.1   65.9   30.58622   68.41618   99.00240         .39891   1.11518
Mariners          56   52   .528   83.8   78.2     .12362   25.49721   25.62082        2.43334  -5.59726
Astros            44   65   .453   67.9   94.1     .00000     .00084     .00084       -0.00178  -0.01498
Rangers           43   65   .415   64.3   97.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00010

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  94.9 87.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.3 84.2 80.0 76.3 70.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         58   48   .547   89.5   72.5   78.44369    9.37789   87.82158       -3.03596  -0.49499
Braves            58   51   .492   83.8   78.2   16.78085   22.50989   39.29074       -1.95343  -1.65041
Marlins           53   55   .473   78.4   83.6    2.09235    4.40916    6.50150       -1.16270   4.23007
Mets              52   56   .488   78.5   83.5    2.64609    4.02970    6.67579         .72327   3.09954
Phillies          48   61   .447   71.2   90.8     .03704     .06043     .09747         .04986    .04959

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.3 86.9 83.8 79.9 70.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           60   49   .514   86.7   75.3   33.61286   31.86930   65.48215         .45741  -5.20889
Cardinals         57   50   .535   87.1   74.9   38.49996   30.93277   69.43272        6.05573   2.61498
Pirates           57   51   .523   85.4   76.6   22.32556   32.03917   54.36473       -5.47892    .37549
Reds              54   54   .509   81.5   80.5    5.55329   14.38849   19.94178        2.68121  -3.44404
Cubs              45   62   .478   70.4   91.6     .00833     .05800     .06634         .01813    .00346

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.5 85.0 75.4 71.5 67.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           62   47   .554   92.1   69.9   86.39015    9.75470   96.14485        1.20913  19.90993
Giants            58   50   .502   85.3   76.7   13.54887   40.21621   53.76508         .57152 -19.45387
Padres            48   60   .449   72.6   89.4     .04062     .21028     .25090       -0.16761  -0.02652
Diamondbacks      48   61   .447   72.2   89.8     .01740     .12661     .14401         .04831    .02002
Rockies           44   64   .463   69.6   92.4     .00297     .01739     .02036       -0.01595  -0.02437

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  87.9 85.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.