Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Jul 31 08:00:03 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.1 86.0 82.2 78.3 70.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           57   44   .562   91.2   70.8   77.15412   15.81234   92.96645       -1.64938   3.01280
Blue Jays         52   51   .562   84.8   77.2   15.70895   37.81105   53.52000        6.62350   3.12204
Orioles           51   50   .510   80.8   81.2    3.39048   17.31184   20.70232       -5.00412   8.79699
Rays              51   52   .523   81.3   80.7    3.71934   19.10177   22.82111       -0.68005   4.53251
Red Sox           45   58   .463   71.4   90.6     .02711     .22785     .25495         .06645  -0.42768

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.8 83.5 80.0 77.0 73.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            61   40   .533   93.7   68.3   95.45350    2.56219   98.01569       -0.66148   1.04790
Twins             53   48   .456   79.5   82.5    1.39580   12.22629   13.62209        2.01831  -1.86833
Tigers            50   52   .494   79.3   82.7    1.68737   10.69866   12.38603        2.41681  -4.42076
White Sox         49   51   .450   76.3   85.7     .40953    3.56081    3.97034       -1.47682   3.55102
Indians           47   54   .523   78.8   83.2    1.05380    9.41724   10.47104        2.30756  -6.30539

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.9 85.9 79.8 76.1 71.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            58   45   .571   90.9   71.1   74.83003   18.43600   93.26603        1.68808  10.12950
Angels            55   46   .530   86.3   75.7   23.46171   43.70982   67.17152       -4.01934 -12.54118
Rangers           49   52   .473   77.1   84.9     .93454    4.60658    5.54112        1.01425    .48926
Mariners          46   57   .493   75.0   87.0     .22968    1.54348    1.77315       -0.91485  -2.64530
Athletics         45   58   .548   76.3   85.7     .54405    2.97409    3.51814       -1.72893  -6.47341

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.0 85.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  88.9 82.5 75.4 70.5 62.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         54   46   .518   87.9   74.1   75.20325    3.89665   79.09990        6.31788   7.15664
Mets              52   50   .490   83.1   78.9   23.78860    7.57868   31.36728       -7.30347  -3.11803
Braves            46   56   .423   72.6   89.4     .38188     .10587     .48775       -0.23851  -1.55474
Marlins           42   60   .485   73.3   88.7     .62552     .10884     .73436       -0.34835  -3.11596
Phillies          39   64   .381   62.6   99.4     .00075     .00000     .00075         .00025    .00075

Average wins by position in NL Central:  98.8 90.8 85.0 76.5 70.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         65   37   .549   98.5   63.5   87.89518   11.54295   99.43812         .10351    .02695
Pirates           59   42   .512   89.9   72.1    9.93914   69.50621   79.44535       -5.21786   2.28779
Cubs              54   47   .515   86.0   76.0    2.15213   45.07159   47.22372        6.55990 -26.14117
Reds              46   54   .489   75.8   86.2     .01338    1.38682    1.40019         .50189    .28986
Brewers           44   59   .453   70.9   91.1     .00018     .06237     .06256       -0.03565  -0.20659

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.6 87.0 80.8 76.2 70.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           57   45   .570   91.3   70.7   69.10833   18.88018   87.98851       -0.32503  -4.46963
Giants            56   45   .528   87.7   74.3   28.76885   35.12064   63.88949       -0.44979  23.97801
Diamondbacks      49   51   .498   79.3   82.7    1.53575    4.87099    6.40674       -0.10889   3.48647
Padres            49   53   .451   77.4   84.6     .57365    1.79314    2.36679         .56174   1.42904
Rockies           43   57   .451   70.8   91.2     .01342     .07507     .08849       -0.01763  -0.04941

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.4 87.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.