Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Jul 18 07:52:20 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.3 90.5 87.1 83.0 70.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays         55   41   .522   88.6   73.4   16.57640   56.43010   73.00650         .01970  -7.66760
Yankees           53   43   .618   93.8   68.2   64.17840   31.01770   95.19610         .03430  -1.02180
Red Sox           53   45   .562   87.9   74.1   13.36480   55.87030   69.23510       -0.04660  12.48880
Rays              50   47   .546   85.5   76.5    5.87820   41.92410   47.80230         .03600 -19.08440
Orioles           43   52   .419   70.1   91.9     .00220     .10130     .10350         .00510  -0.19430

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.1 83.7 79.3 74.7 56.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            59   38   .550   95.0   67.0   95.94250    2.23470   98.17720       -0.00690  -1.32660
Twins             47   49   .501   80.7   81.3    2.12610   12.25140   14.37750       -0.00650   1.10370
Royals            47   50   .501   80.2   81.8    1.58660    9.90010   11.48670       -0.03950  -5.73280
Guardians         46   49   .446   76.9   85.1     .34480    3.18550    3.53030       -0.00090    .32640
White Sox         32   65   .386   56.2  105.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.3 87.8 82.2 75.0 67.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            56   40   .542   92.0   70.0   65.46710   25.08480   90.55190         .01900  -3.79560
Mariners          51   45   .547   88.2   73.8   29.80920   41.08100   70.89020         .08810  20.88850
Rangers           48   49   .531   82.6   79.4    4.53830   19.61220   24.15050       -0.09780   3.87870
Angels            47   49   .432   75.1   86.9     .18470    1.29340    1.47810       -0.00330    .13760
Athletics         41   57   .423   67.6   94.4     .00070     .01340     .01410       -0.00070  -0.00060

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.3 88.7 88.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.8 88.3 77.5 72.2 64.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          55   41   .545   91.1   70.9   54.09570   33.25140   87.34710         .03850  -2.68230
Mets              55   42   .550   90.9   71.1   45.68620   39.30880   84.99500       -0.03780   2.92780
Marlins           44   51   .460   74.3   87.7     .09290     .71050     .80340       -0.01520    .19290
Braves            42   53   .497   74.9   87.1     .12510     .86610     .99120         .00120    .20170
Nationals         38   58   .418   65.2   96.8     .00010     .00150     .00160         .00040  -0.00470

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.3 90.4 85.1 80.1 71.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              57   39   .587   96.6   65.4   80.32320   18.15220   98.47540         .00630   1.11740
Brewers           56   40   .531   90.0   72.0   16.63660   63.11560   79.75220         .00000   7.58410
Cardinals         51   46   .517   84.6   77.4    2.37420   33.83890   36.21310       -0.07840  -8.95920
Reds              50   47   .501   81.5   80.5     .66570   14.88020   15.54590         .01080  -0.26970
Pirates           39   58   .483   71.3   90.7     .00030     .10140     .10170       -0.00170  -0.10140

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.0 88.1 83.9 79.1 44.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           58   39   .531   93.1   68.9   75.90950   17.33560   93.24510       -0.03329   2.16090
Padres            52   44   .513   86.8   75.2   15.44390   40.55160   55.99550       -0.03400   7.11830
Giants            52   45   .493   84.3   77.7    7.11240   27.10020   34.21260         .08160  -3.09470
Diamondbacks      47   50   .514   80.9   81.1    1.53420   10.78600   12.32020         .06160  -6.19110
Rockies           22   74   .334   44.1  117.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.1 89.2 86.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.