Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Sep 1 07:25:54 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.9 84.5 81.3 78.8 71.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           79   56   .535   93.7   68.3   98.79187     .56247   99.35434         .46458   6.54791
Yankees           70   65   .495   83.4   78.6    1.00880    6.72911    7.73791       -2.88976  -1.36295
Blue Jays         69   67   .499   81.6   80.4     .18858    2.00042    2.18901         .55041  -1.71842
Rays              66   71   .541   79.7   82.3     .01075     .27444     .28519       -0.40653  -2.92328
Red Sox           60   76   .455   71.3   90.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.5 87.1 83.6 73.7 70.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            74   61   .504   87.6   73.4   44.68395   20.50140   65.18535         .25043  -8.64556
Tigers            74   62   .527   88.1   73.9   45.23940   19.47343   64.71282       -7.78716  10.97757
Indians           70   64   .519   84.4   76.6   10.07665   11.09910   21.17575         .85529  13.73368
White Sox         62   75   .461   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00005     .00005         .00005  -0.00158
Twins             59   77   .458   70.7   91.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00032

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.6 94.0 86.6 69.1 62.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            83   53   .592   98.5   63.5   87.06665   12.87698   99.94363         .01516    .46889
Athletics         78   58   .591   94.0   68.0   12.79035   86.38943   99.17978       -0.18294  -0.01265
Mariners          73   62   .537   86.6   75.4     .14300   40.09317   40.23616        9.13047 -17.06331
Astros            59   79   .453   69.1   92.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           53   83   .406   62.8   99.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.6 88.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 84.9 79.4 75.7 72.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         77   58   .564   92.5   69.5   96.45100    2.88809   99.33909       -0.21199  -0.33501
Braves            72   65   .502   84.8   77.2    3.48890   37.78280   41.27170        6.79891   4.90465
Marlins           66   69   .476   78.8   83.2     .05885    1.02824    1.08709       -0.77034  -2.24853
Mets              64   73   .460   75.6   86.4     .00125     .02190     .02314         .00862  -0.19287
Phillies          62   74   .456   73.4   88.6     .00000     .00217     .00217       -0.00394  -0.00164

Average wins by position in NL Central:  88.5 86.2 83.3 78.1 72.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           73   63   .509   86.3   75.7   37.40473   26.02563   63.43035       -7.80680 -25.12170
Cardinals         73   63   .524   86.9   75.1   46.56903   24.31453   70.88356        5.75687  -9.85397
Pirates           71   65   .526   84.7   77.3   15.85796   24.01953   39.87749      -10.31782   2.91197
Reds              66   71   .487   78.0   84.0     .16802     .43071     .59873         .19168  -0.74958
Cubs              61   76   .486   72.9   89.1     .00028     .00132     .00160       -0.00227  -0.01661

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.9 87.5 77.1 69.0 65.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           77   60   .560   91.4   70.6   79.81600   18.94018   98.75617         .84926    .69888
Giants            74   62   .530   87.9   74.1   20.18040   64.35236   84.53275        5.75436  30.16855
Padres            64   71   .461   77.0   85.0     .00360     .19253     .19613       -0.24657  -0.16412
Diamondbacks      57   79   .441   68.3   93.7     .00000     .00001     .00001         .00001  -0.00004
Rockies           54   82   .448   65.8   96.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  88.1 85.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.