Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Apr 30 07:51:49 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 101.2 89.4 81.6 73.0 61.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 18 12 .610 99.8 62.2 78.68160 17.51990 96.20150 1.80630 3.04540 Red Sox 17 14 .517 84.7 77.3 9.97640 44.49630 54.47270 7.83360 3.22640 Rays 14 15 .529 85.0 77.0 10.17180 45.74060 55.91240 -1.23360 19.79850 Blue Jays 13 16 .457 73.8 88.2 1.10290 12.37380 13.47670 -7.53170 -15.46770 Orioles 11 18 .399 63.8 98.2 .06730 1.49890 1.56620 -1.75660 -4.17200
Average wins by position in AL Central: 96.0 83.2 76.2 69.7 60.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 18 12 .566 95.0 67.0 82.21760 8.98320 91.20080 -0.42430 8.09280 Guardians 16 13 .430 73.5 88.5 3.61280 9.67400 13.28680 1.55320 -22.44360 Royals 15 15 .460 76.2 85.8 5.69070 14.38360 20.07430 1.71580 5.96150 Twins 13 17 .486 77.9 84.1 8.23010 18.70630 26.93640 -4.82790 12.07610 White Sox 7 22 .419 62.7 99.3 .24880 .90100 1.14980 -0.65040 -1.38750
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.9 88.6 82.3 74.8 64.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mariners 17 12 .534 88.9 73.1 36.89620 35.30730 72.20350 -3.37560 17.05530 Astros 16 13 .526 87.5 74.5 29.50410 36.77250 66.27660 .73960 -0.31630 Rangers 16 14 .530 87.4 74.6 29.66990 36.84660 66.51650 11.71700 -0.02340 Athletics 15 15 .450 74.9 87.1 3.22880 13.05230 16.28110 -4.97140 -7.29970 Angels 12 16 .416 67.8 94.2 .70100 3.74370 4.44470 -0.59400 -18.14580 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.6 88.2 88.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.9 85.8 79.1 72.5 64.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 21 9 .554 93.7 68.3 69.35490 11.63580 80.99070 1.28560 1.56350 Phillies 16 13 .492 81.7 80.3 14.42540 15.55130 29.97670 -0.02760 6.01760 Braves 14 15 .500 80.8 81.2 12.94630 13.62610 26.57240 .43800 10.47490 Nationals 13 17 .434 69.5 92.5 1.12820 1.97650 3.10470 -0.97840 -3.85510 Marlins 12 17 .455 72.2 89.8 2.14520 3.74170 5.88690 -4.88530 -17.93940
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.9 89.7 83.6 77.5 68.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 18 12 .590 96.0 66.0 64.63320 20.61440 85.24760 6.02000 .73890 Reds 16 13 .531 85.5 76.5 15.44500 28.33050 43.77550 -5.35480 15.01160 Brewers 15 15 .519 82.7 79.3 9.48900 22.24760 31.73660 .66060 2.52760 Cardinals 12 17 .539 82.5 79.5 9.54940 21.90420 31.45360 -0.81150 -6.44440 Pirates 11 19 .473 71.6 90.4 .88340 3.83530 4.71870 -2.93580 -7.07090
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.2 93.2 87.4 80.2 54.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 20 10 .546 91.7 70.3 29.97200 40.97340 70.94540 10.88070 26.04340 Giants 19 11 .543 91.0 71.0 26.69930 41.19100 67.89030 -2.36411 4.94030 Padres 18 11 .560 91.9 70.1 30.67540 40.68640 71.36180 3.91620 -13.27680 Diamondbacks 15 14 .539 86.2 75.8 12.65260 33.66870 46.32130 -5.82520 -18.40560 Rockies 4 25 .391 54.1 107.9 .00070 .01710 .01780 -0.01840 -0.32560 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 95.0 91.1 88.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
