Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Jul 9 07:52:15 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.8 89.2 81.7 77.2 72.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 54 36 .557 94.6 67.4 73.61460 25.82890 99.44350 .39750 .48029 Yankees 50 42 .568 89.9 72.1 25.17760 70.45830 95.63590 -0.85960 -2.43250 Blue Jays 44 49 .488 77.7 84.3 .35490 23.48120 23.83610 6.25910 -3.98750 Red Sox 42 48 .520 79.3 82.7 .77460 34.04550 34.82010 7.19190 23.76450 Orioles 42 51 .481 74.8 87.2 .07830 9.36060 9.43890 -1.06820 -4.10450
Average wins by position in AL Central: 86.3 82.4 79.2 75.6 68.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 47 44 .493 82.7 79.3 38.90450 23.36650 62.27100 -5.06710 -15.80370 Guardians 47 46 .481 81.3 80.7 27.97280 23.35770 51.33050 -4.25290 -13.66110 Twins 46 47 .485 80.1 81.9 19.63630 21.40040 41.03670 5.66800 22.13090 Tigers 42 50 .520 78.8 83.2 13.25320 17.77370 31.02690 4.31630 9.14880 Royals 38 55 .446 69.2 92.8 .23320 .68870 .92190 -0.31030 -0.07870
Average wins by position in AL west: 85.6 80.9 76.8 71.9 67.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mariners 47 46 .517 82.7 79.3 49.00450 17.81740 66.82190 -1.82430 5.23320 Rangers 46 46 .500 81.8 80.2 38.97620 18.96460 57.94080 -7.44140 -7.14710 Astros 46 49 .456 77.4 84.6 10.30190 11.16320 21.46510 -2.79820 1.79140 Athletics 41 51 .425 71.2 90.8 1.26550 1.74590 3.01140 -0.69790 -11.57730 Angels 37 56 .465 69.0 93.0 .45190 .54740 .99930 .48710 -3.75670 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 89.4 84.2 84.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.5 88.8 84.2 79.6 68.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 53 38 .536 90.9 71.1 50.46230 37.75140 88.21370 2.58530 -3.63360 Marlins 51 42 .563 89.9 72.1 40.09800 44.07340 84.17140 2.59330 15.39780 Phillies 51 42 .472 82.7 79.3 4.86730 26.17680 31.04410 -8.03900 -21.01490 Nationals 48 46 .504 82.6 79.4 4.56860 25.79740 30.36600 3.79350 .42550 Mets 39 54 .454 69.0 93.0 .00380 .08290 .08670 .02390 -0.10040
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.9 89.7 85.0 80.5 70.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 58 34 .602 99.7 62.3 93.35320 6.41900 99.77220 -0.05860 .24250 Cubs 52 40 .529 87.7 74.3 4.61240 66.96390 71.57630 1.23590 -7.59810 Cardinals 48 43 .502 83.5 78.5 .79640 36.97280 37.76920 5.09100 12.29750 Pirates 47 46 .554 84.0 78.0 1.23660 40.12870 41.36530 -5.93260 10.61450 Reds 42 49 .428 71.0 91.0 .00140 .40950 .41090 .11840 .02490
Average wins by position in NL West: 103.8 81.1 76.3 71.6 65.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 61 33 .629 103.8 58.2 99.98120 .01590 99.99710 .00170 .00240 Padres 46 46 .461 78.2 83.8 .00830 8.00920 8.01750 1.27400 -0.29840 Diamondbacks 45 47 .464 77.6 84.4 .01050 6.70720 6.71770 -2.22570 -4.39930 Giants 38 54 .479 72.1 89.9 .00000 .47590 .47590 -0.45960 -1.96980 Rockies 38 56 .423 66.6 95.4 .00000 .01600 .01600 -0.00150 .00940 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.2 88.1 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
