Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Jun 22 08:01:30 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  108.8 99.9 82.2 72.2 52.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           50   22   .632  107.7   54.3   77.94240   21.85997   99.80237         .04218    .86757
Red Sox           50   26   .594  101.0   61.0   22.03290   75.88879   97.92169        1.06619  -0.14875
Blue Jays         34   40   .456   72.9   89.1     .00013     .28317     .28330       -0.10714    .12621
Rays              34   40   .532   81.4   80.6     .02457    5.64153    5.66610         .05714  -2.36556
Orioles           21   52   .378   52.9  109.1     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00003    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.6 80.1 72.9 62.2 53.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           40   33   .547   91.2   70.8   90.93144     .37223   91.30367        1.58142   1.59850
Tigers            36   39   .442   74.6   87.4    2.10168     .26174    2.36341         .14035  -1.70454
Twins             33   38   .473   78.4   83.6    6.95591    1.09081    8.04672       -2.46932    .95556
White Sox         24   49   .411   61.3  100.7     .01053     .00040     .01093         .00275  -0.17652
Royals            22   52   .370   54.9  107.1     .00045     .00010     .00055         .00025  -0.00990

Average wins by position in AL west:  106.8 93.0 85.9 79.9 69.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            50   26   .652  106.7   55.3   95.24567    4.36974   99.61540       -0.02012    .86475
Mariners          46   29   .533   91.6   70.4    4.13502   63.80037   67.93539       -2.38295  -2.83337
Angels            40   35   .528   85.0   77.0     .49567   18.20117   18.69684        1.68626  -0.87031
Athletics         38   36   .510   81.9   80.1     .12365    8.15138    8.27503         .39645   3.66136
Rangers           32   44   .445   69.5   92.5     .00000     .07860     .07860         .00657    .03501

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  100.4 92.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.7 89.0 83.3 72.4 63.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            43   30   .547   92.0   70.0   54.48773   23.92249   78.41022       -0.33641    .78054
Nationals         40   33   .539   88.4   73.6   27.78593   28.57708   56.36300        2.26264 -15.84620
Phillies          39   33   .517   86.3   75.7   17.55614   24.29572   41.85187       -1.29138   9.15271
Mets              31   41   .457   71.7   90.3     .16441     .49812     .66252       -0.19578    .19093
Marlins           29   46   .417   64.4   97.6     .00580     .01110     .01690         .00019  -0.00053

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.8 90.8 82.9 76.9 67.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           44   30   .542   91.9   70.1   31.42256   46.46077   77.88333        3.85919   6.52540
Cubs              42   30   .585   95.8   66.2   65.62069   26.19159   91.81229       -1.63919   4.10334
Cardinals         38   35   .486   80.4   81.6    1.63854    9.87988   11.51842       -3.55614  -4.31918
Pirates           36   38   .502   79.7   82.3    1.31010    7.80652    9.11662       -3.44769  -3.05521
Reds              29   45   .451   67.8   94.2     .00811     .06757     .07568         .01552    .03897

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.1 85.8 81.1 74.8 67.9
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Diamondbacks      41   33   .524   87.4   74.6   45.43028   11.08141   56.51169        5.15744  -0.75232
Dodgers           38   35   .544   86.2   75.8   35.45315   11.93872   47.39186       -1.76376   5.60009
Giants            38   38   .514   82.9   79.1   17.00368    8.34206   25.34574        1.32651  -1.52019
Rockies           37   38   .446   74.6   87.4    1.85265     .84540    2.69805       -0.14294  -0.40090
Padres            34   43   .431   69.6   92.4     .26025     .08157     .34182       -0.24821  -0.49744

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.6 88.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.