Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Oct 1 07:25:41 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 83.2 83.0 76.7 71.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 96 66 .546 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 84 78 .495 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.04893 Blue Jays 83 79 .515 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 77 85 .531 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 71 91 .457 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.7 88.2 85.0 72.2 71.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 90 72 .535 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .10698 Royals 89 73 .509 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 3.18225 Indians 85 77 .515 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.72185 White Sox 73 89 .453 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 70 92 .456 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.7 88.0 87.8 71.0 67.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 98 64 .581 98.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 88 74 .578 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 1.18355 Mariners 87 75 .526 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -3.70200 Astros 70 92 .470 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 67 95 .421 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 88.8 88.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.0 79.8 79.8 76.7 72.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 96 66 .583 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 79 83 .472 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 79 83 .473 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 77 85 .467 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 73 89 .448 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 88.7 88.0 80.8 76.5 72.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cardinals 90 72 .522 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 88 74 .550 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 82 80 .503 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.03460 Reds 76 86 .471 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 73 89 .476 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 95.3 88.0 76.7 65.0 64.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 94 68 .576 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 88 74 .522 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .03460 Padres 77 85 .453 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 66 96 .467 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 64 98 .428 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 88.1 88.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
