Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Jul 7 08:00:10 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.1 86.4 83.0 79.4 74.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           44   38   .552   88.1   73.9   49.54561   20.51143   70.05704         .98827   3.61716
Orioles           43   40   .516   82.0   80.0   10.98324   15.69884   26.68208       -3.38777 -16.15756
Rays              43   41   .524   82.7   79.3   13.06157   18.03972   31.10129       -0.16425 -13.04043
Blue Jays         43   42   .555   84.9   77.1   24.58015   22.49471   47.07486       -4.48755 -10.13250
Red Sox           39   45   .490   76.5   85.5    1.82944    3.57739    5.40682         .13647   2.33181

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.6 84.8 80.2 75.5 68.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            46   33   .535   90.3   71.7   72.42861   10.92427   83.35288       -0.29713  -6.29356
Twins             44   39   .445   77.6   84.4    2.91263    5.62591    8.53854        1.25095   4.76701
Tigers            42   40   .524   83.6   78.4   18.39495   20.05797   38.45292        6.95212   3.34032
Indians           38   44   .519   79.6   82.4    6.09403    9.33124   15.42527       -3.62829   5.51235
White Sox         37   43   .415   69.7   92.3     .16978     .23460     .40438         .10623    .33979

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.6 86.5 82.0 78.1 73.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            49   36   .564   91.1   70.9   68.88508   17.54762   86.43270        3.50295   7.06904
Angels            44   38   .531   85.7   76.3   21.91622   31.02023   52.93645         .39624  25.14589
Rangers           41   42   .493   78.9   83.1    3.48181    8.59097   12.07279         .24305  -6.88890
Mariners          38   45   .489   76.2   85.8    1.04288    3.73827    4.78115       -2.21757   1.04287
Athletics         38   47   .569   80.4   81.6    4.67401   12.60683   17.28084         .60629  -0.65329

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.8 86.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.1 82.8 77.9 72.5 57.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         46   37   .522   89.1   72.9   76.85869    4.15736   81.01605       -4.18580   2.73827
Mets              43   41   .476   81.7   80.3   16.43638    7.89300   24.32937        5.05899    .44597
Braves            41   42   .443   77.2   84.8    4.09068    2.82138    6.91205        1.73125  -0.30040
Marlins           35   48   .478   75.3   86.7    2.61398    1.20673    3.82071         .08449    .10719
Phillies          28   57   .377   57.7  104.3     .00028     .00010     .00038       -0.00017  -0.00424

Average wins by position in NL Central:  100.3 92.5 86.8 76.2 68.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         54   28   .557   99.4   62.6   79.22842   19.83195   99.06037         .41274  -0.38234
Pirates           48   34   .532   90.4   71.6   12.12635   69.43812   81.56447        1.64172  27.12775
Cubs              44   37   .539   89.5   72.5    8.59568   68.31065   76.90634       -2.50535  11.01579
Reds              37   44   .483   75.3   86.7     .04837    2.81377    2.86213         .65394  -7.55087
Brewers           36   49   .442   69.6   92.4     .00118     .20967     .21085       -0.10809    .16285

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.3 83.6 78.8 74.4 68.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           47   37   .564   91.8   70.2   86.63678    4.01272   90.64950        1.32775    .63203
Giants            42   42   .504   81.4   80.6    8.21115   11.59920   19.81035       -4.09651 -32.48534
Diamondbacks      40   42   .483   78.8   83.2    3.85581    5.76072    9.61653         .28599    .95206
Padres            39   46   .449   75.6   86.4    1.19258    1.73433    2.92692       -0.31259  -1.86756
Rockies           35   47   .429   69.8   92.2     .10368     .21030     .31398         .01165  -0.59116

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.7 88.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.