Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon May 23 07:51:38 EDT 2022


Average wins by position in AL East:  98.0 89.6 84.1 78.7 71.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           29   12   .550   95.6   66.4   66.15750   19.07581   85.23331       -5.44036  -0.78051
Rays              24   17   .507   84.6   77.4   13.44378   24.14554   37.58932       -1.49359   3.36265
Blue Jays         22   19   .510   84.0   78.0   10.64678   24.15082   34.79761       -9.38333  -6.24055
Red Sox           19   22   .519   82.5   79.5    8.51733   19.34182   27.85915        5.13357  16.61717
Orioles           18   25   .476   75.1   87.9    1.23460    5.12850    6.36310         .61170  -1.47430

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.5 83.9 77.5 69.9 61.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             25   16   .505   87.0   75.0   48.71378    8.89359   57.60737        3.21743  13.27435
White Sox         21   20   .478   80.4   81.6   18.04233    6.95928   25.00161        8.35522   7.07445
Guardians         16   20   .521   83.1   77.9   31.00530    9.27330   40.27860       -6.09440 -13.02640
Royals            14   26   .423   65.3   96.7     .63068     .27088     .90157       -0.51924  -1.32628
Tigers            14   26   .439   68.3   93.7    1.60790     .59179    2.19969       -0.04675  -2.39716

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.8 90.8 80.0 72.6 64.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            27   15   .571   96.7   65.3   60.81385   28.37636   89.19021        1.92140  -0.06262
Angels            26   17   .562   93.0   69.0   36.70533   41.58083   78.28616        6.91753  -6.46661
Rangers           18   22   .461   74.3   87.7     .86418    4.87919    5.74337       -1.17532   2.52144
Mariners          17   25   .488   76.0   86.0    1.48952    6.68398    8.17350       -1.54194 -10.33779
Athletics         17   26   .431   67.3   94.7     .12713     .64830     .77543       -0.46190  -0.73783

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.4 88.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.8 88.1 82.3 76.2 65.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              28   15   .551   92.7   69.3   59.92578   13.91473   73.84051         .13129  -5.67482
Braves            19   22   .526   81.9   80.1   11.29417   11.18050   22.47466       -2.52590   5.50412
Phillies          19   22   .544   84.3   77.7   16.44333   15.73827   32.18159        2.63689 -10.30009
Marlins           18   22   .532   82.1   79.9   12.06237   10.94696   23.00932        3.27187  -2.73508
Nationals         14   28   .454   67.1   94.9     .27436     .38020     .65456         .08104  -1.84217

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.6 86.5 75.2 66.4 57.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           26   15   .537   91.9   70.1   57.20742   15.07969   72.28711       -4.64825   5.28086
Cardinals         23   18   .532   89.1   72.9   39.83303   18.91462   58.74765        5.63604   3.36290
Cubs              16   24   .472   74.0   88.0    2.65829    2.47740    5.13569         .78654  -1.67929
Pirates           16   24   .408   65.2   96.8     .21870     .21259     .43129       -0.19317  -2.74751
Reds              12   28   .402   61.4  100.6     .08256     .05265     .13521         .03742    .02136

Average wins by position in NL West:  100.6 92.5 85.8 78.9 69.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           27   13   .578   96.8   65.2   55.75363   29.19867   84.95230       -1.56844  14.30632
Padres            27   14   .546   92.7   69.3   31.29923   39.70208   71.00130        9.90877  20.19067
Giants            22   18   .524   85.5   76.5    9.46441   26.48870   35.95311       -9.02831 -14.69422
Diamondbacks      21   22   .504   80.8   81.2    3.15393   13.75341   16.90734       -4.06469  -7.56543
Rockies           19   21   .450   71.3   90.7     .32882    1.95954    2.28836       -0.46110  -1.42761

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.1 89.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.