Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun May 28 08:00:21 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.0 90.4 84.6 78.6 71.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 28 18 .599 97.0 65.0 69.86354 21.90901 91.77255 -0.00694 1.59171 Red Sox 27 21 .539 86.4 75.6 13.56090 38.26593 51.82683 5.76369 28.28832 Rays 26 26 .564 87.0 75.0 13.33356 42.18694 55.52050 -4.63403 -3.98550 Orioles 25 22 .486 78.9 83.1 2.50835 14.47054 16.97888 -2.33367 -17.14529 Blue Jays 23 26 .475 74.4 87.6 .73366 5.45250 6.18616 .57634 2.38550
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.0 84.6 79.7 74.9 68.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 26 19 .511 85.3 76.7 39.06159 11.76009 50.82168 6.52878 17.44089 Indians 24 23 .531 85.1 76.9 38.37162 11.76398 50.13560 -5.30890 -12.89258 Tigers 23 26 .476 76.6 85.4 7.94822 4.70415 12.65237 1.39722 -9.29777 White Sox 22 26 .496 78.0 84.0 10.40852 6.34123 16.74975 -3.74549 -0.59805 Royals 21 27 .466 73.7 88.3 4.21005 2.61176 6.82181 .97703 2.40240
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.9 84.8 79.0 73.9 67.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 34 16 .563 97.3 64.7 89.15443 5.27804 94.43247 1.17932 3.11670 Angels 26 26 .485 78.8 83.2 3.48722 12.06448 15.55169 1.75243 3.40089 Rangers 24 26 .462 75.0 87.0 1.59139 5.40374 6.99513 -1.74361 -7.65446 Athletics 22 26 .510 79.9 82.1 5.16274 15.23018 20.39292 .57743 -0.63576 Mariners 21 29 .460 72.0 90.0 .60422 2.55744 3.16165 -0.97963 -6.41702 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.6 87.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.7 80.3 74.5 69.7 63.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 30 18 .536 93.2 68.8 90.00858 1.32313 91.33170 2.74963 12.49319 Braves 21 26 .459 74.7 87.3 4.25778 2.85366 7.11144 -1.52774 -7.27262 Mets 20 27 .442 70.8 91.2 1.62688 .98861 2.61549 -0.60161 -3.70423 Marlins 17 30 .468 72.2 89.8 2.63121 1.46733 4.09854 -1.24584 -2.74539 Phillies 17 30 .454 70.9 91.1 1.47555 1.09113 2.56668 .15578 -7.07796
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.7 85.5 81.0 76.5 70.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 26 23 .479 79.9 82.1 12.83305 6.20724 19.04030 2.46088 -16.41133 Cubs 25 23 .506 83.6 78.4 26.08853 9.31619 35.40471 -4.71974 -1.24249 Cardinals 24 22 .531 86.8 75.2 43.69695 9.19006 52.88702 8.22003 3.20097 Reds 23 25 .499 79.6 82.4 12.49387 5.85913 18.35300 -2.66545 -5.11133 Pirates 23 27 .462 75.2 86.8 4.88760 2.45881 7.34641 .29391 -0.55837
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.9 94.4 87.9 72.1 62.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rockies 32 19 .544 93.7 68.3 29.49624 54.89940 84.39564 -2.97003 17.77125 Diamondbacks 31 20 .563 93.7 68.3 29.88233 54.07398 83.95631 -2.90081 2.65392 Dodgers 30 20 .577 95.6 66.4 40.56906 48.96220 89.53126 2.60936 10.80311 Giants 21 30 .441 70.3 91.7 .04862 1.16508 1.21370 .21422 -2.59020 Padres 18 33 .418 64.1 97.9 .00376 .14405 .14781 -0.07259 -0.20852 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 94.6 89.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
