Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Sep 25 08:02:27 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.9 90.7 79.2 77.0 74.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           91   64   .555   94.9   67.1   99.02205     .97795  100.00000         .00000    .00065
Yankees           86   69   .622   90.7   71.3     .97795   99.02205  100.00000         .00000    .05223
Rays              76   80   .537   79.0   83.0     .00000     .01204     .01204       -0.36250  -1.25751
Orioles           75   82   .462   77.1   84.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.51318
Blue Jays         73   83   .458   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00050

Average wins by position in AL Central:  102.2 84.8 79.3 66.0 64.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           98   58   .637  102.2   59.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             82   74   .493   84.8   77.2     .00000   98.62042   98.62042        2.49784  28.75085
Royals            76   79   .462   79.3   82.7     .00000     .07044     .07044       -0.84242  -1.26966
White Sox         63   92   .433   65.7   96.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            62   94   .432   64.5   97.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.7 81.0 79.4 77.7 75.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            95   60   .596   98.7   63.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Angels            77   78   .497   80.7   81.3     .00000    1.18799    1.18799       -0.19296 -21.14023
Rangers           76   79   .490   79.5   82.5     .00000     .10911     .10911       -1.07335  -1.75479
Mariners          75   81   .498   77.8   84.2     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.02661  -2.86787
Athletics         72   83   .492   75.5   86.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  90.7 84.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.5 76.7 73.5 69.6 64.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         94   61   .566   98.5   63.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           73   82   .473   76.6   85.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            70   84   .444   73.6   88.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              66   89   .441   69.6   92.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          62   94   .422   64.8   97.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.8 85.8 84.1 73.4 68.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              87   68   .555   90.8   71.2   99.55700     .29263   99.84963         .82035   7.38401
Brewers           82   74   .507   85.1   76.9     .05330   12.97836   13.03166      -12.35088  -4.53622
Cardinals         81   74   .541   84.8   77.2     .38970   11.11833   11.50803      -12.45543   5.98458
Pirates           71   85   .434   73.4   88.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              66   90   .453   68.3   93.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  102.9 93.8 87.0 72.2 63.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           99   57   .608  102.9   59.1  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      90   66   .574   93.8   68.2     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00010    .00922
Rockies           84   72   .493   87.0   75.0     .00000   75.61068   75.61068       23.98586  -8.84159
Padres            70   86   .417   72.2   89.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            61   95   .409   63.5   98.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  93.8 87.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.