Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Jul 7 07:52:14 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.0 90.4 86.7 82.1 69.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays         52   38   .520   88.9   73.1   21.33540   57.98370   79.31910         .57390  22.05740
Rays              49   41   .549   88.1   73.9   17.27560   56.96200   74.23760        2.81620 -14.65510
Yankees           49   41   .611   92.9   69.1   56.66520   37.38890   94.05410        1.19970  -4.67720
Red Sox           46   45   .545   84.2   77.8    4.71950   38.66880   43.38830         .52460  11.77030
Orioles           40   49   .418   69.7   92.3     .00430     .22720     .23150         .04510  -0.06110

Average wins by position in AL Central:  97.3 82.0 77.2 71.8 58.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            57   34   .561   97.3   64.7   98.69620     .80510   99.50130         .12240    .02480
Twins             43   47   .487   78.7   83.3     .66520   10.18810   10.85330       -3.07800  -6.52640
Royals            43   48   .491   78.8   83.2     .59130    9.97820   10.56950        2.33120  -5.34990
Guardians         40   48   .436   73.4   88.6     .04730    1.45340    1.50070       -0.61750  -5.16590
White Sox         30   60   .393   58.1  103.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00040

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.2 87.2 81.2 73.8 65.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            55   35   .555   95.8   66.2   87.48160   10.61290   98.09450         .92329   2.18790
Mariners          48   42   .528   86.4   75.6   10.35430   51.46190   61.81620        3.11150  13.56960
Rangers           44   46   .521   81.7   80.3    2.08580   22.39090   24.47670       -7.28930 -11.42140
Angels            43   46   .427   74.1   87.9     .07790    1.86160    1.93950       -0.65110  -1.74380
Athletics         37   55   .415   65.9   96.1     .00040     .01730     .01770       -0.01200  -0.00880

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.2 88.3 88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.8 89.0 77.2 71.8 65.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          53   37   .543   92.1   69.9   55.13640   34.32480   89.46120        3.60110  12.66779
Mets              52   39   .556   91.6   70.4   44.68020   42.44190   87.12210       -2.45710   6.25010
Marlins           40   48   .452   72.9   89.1     .04860     .58110     .62970       -0.38490    .02470
Braves            39   50   .499   75.0   87.0     .13350    1.36780    1.50130       -0.80190  -6.16870
Nationals         37   53   .423   66.7   95.3     .00130     .01080     .01210       -0.00800  -0.02310

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.2 89.1 84.7 80.4 73.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              54   36   .593   96.8   65.2   86.32510   11.79280   98.11790         .91180   5.47449
Brewers           50   40   .524   86.9   75.1    8.15920   48.41980   56.57900        7.00910   9.24420
Cardinals         48   43   .520   85.1   76.9    4.14220   38.01470   42.15690       -6.95470 -19.76650
Reds              46   44   .505   82.0   80.0    1.35380   18.63950   19.99330       -4.50150  -8.16440
Pirates           38   53   .501   74.1   87.9     .01970     .87680     .89650       -0.41640  -0.28920

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.1 88.5 84.1 79.1 46.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           56   35   .538   94.3   67.7   78.51320   16.22830   94.74150       -1.42610  -1.41350
Giants            49   42   .501   84.4   77.6    6.91760   29.82190   36.73950        4.10020   4.64020
Padres            48   41   .518   86.7   75.3   12.67980   42.33920   55.01900        6.94330   1.63780
Diamondbacks      44   46   .517   81.4   80.6    1.88940   15.14060   17.03000       -5.61490  -4.11390
Rockies           21   69   .352   46.0  116.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.0 89.1 86.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.