Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Apr 25 07:51:27 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 100.9 92.0 84.4 77.1 68.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 17 8 .498 84.5 77.5 10.75810 40.90510 51.66320 4.30460 -12.76270 Orioles 16 8 .573 96.3 65.7 53.28870 36.52840 89.81710 2.57750 5.88070 Red Sox 14 11 .564 92.2 69.8 32.35880 48.40540 80.76420 5.33590 23.97540 Blue Jays 13 12 .469 77.0 85.0 2.65720 19.01160 21.66880 -2.02040 1.99860 Rays 13 13 .446 72.6 89.4 .93720 9.82160 10.75880 1.03620 -1.21620
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.0 85.2 79.1 72.1 56.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 17 7 .497 86.6 75.4 42.10930 20.06840 62.17770 -10.68730 8.81290 Royals 15 10 .490 82.9 79.1 26.07730 20.41950 46.49680 4.35950 -12.77810 Tigers 14 11 .479 80.4 81.6 18.07950 17.83840 35.91790 -3.90930 .32930 Twins 10 13 .484 78.7 83.3 13.62200 15.81770 29.43970 3.26420 1.61060 White Sox 3 21 .394 57.6 104.4 .11190 .26110 .37300 -0.31700 -4.68970
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.5 85.0 79.2 73.2 64.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 13 12 .512 83.7 78.3 30.53360 19.74830 50.28190 5.83650 2.45400 Mariners 12 12 .526 85.5 76.5 38.40270 19.58480 57.98750 -5.67820 18.12660 Angels 10 15 .503 80.0 82.0 18.46280 16.24050 34.70330 .00350 -5.43250 Athletics 9 16 .436 68.6 93.4 2.32020 3.39320 5.71340 -4.46090 -5.08880 Astros 7 18 .503 76.6 85.4 10.28070 11.95600 22.23670 .35520 -21.22010 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.4 88.5 88.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.5 90.5 82.9 74.1 59.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 17 6 .565 94.9 67.1 53.71340 28.84740 82.56080 1.43070 11.34060 Phillies 15 10 .514 84.3 77.7 12.77020 29.96640 42.73660 -6.50540 6.36220 Mets 13 11 .556 90.1 71.9 29.94900 37.33140 67.28040 6.33100 -1.08400 Nationals 10 13 .482 76.5 85.5 3.51350 12.68230 16.19580 -8.08080 -4.82470 Marlins 6 20 .411 60.9 101.1 .05390 .41590 .46980 -0.05330 -1.38090
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.7 90.2 84.2 78.1 69.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 15 8 .569 94.6 67.4 55.54860 25.85680 81.40540 3.39410 6.54850 Cubs 15 9 .509 84.4 77.6 14.73480 28.07350 42.80830 .61990 -5.22990 Reds 14 10 .512 83.9 78.1 13.56420 28.14170 41.70590 2.16820 10.98780 Pirates 13 12 .522 84.4 77.6 14.21480 29.00570 43.22050 -3.78360 -10.66480 Cardinals 11 14 .464 73.5 88.5 1.93760 7.68570 9.62330 1.35340 -6.90400
Average wins by position in NL West: 95.4 87.1 80.6 73.8 62.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 15 11 .563 91.2 70.8 54.57970 18.84450 73.42420 9.78070 11.83210 Padres 14 13 .528 84.8 77.2 23.27520 23.04580 46.32100 .84700 -12.81090 Diamondbacks 12 14 .514 80.6 81.4 13.22280 16.00820 29.23100 -3.15060 -4.51240 Giants 12 14 .493 78.5 83.5 8.51830 13.25370 21.77200 -3.92960 1.91400 Rockies 6 19 .431 63.9 98.1 .40400 .84100 1.24500 -0.42170 -1.57360 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 94.4 90.2 87.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
