Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Apr 19 07:20:50 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.8 85.2 79.4 73.7 65.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           10    7   .494   82.5   79.5   28.01358   11.28026   39.29384      -10.54584  17.07617
Blue Jays          9    8   .458   76.0   86.0   11.82879    6.83316   18.66195       -0.23077  -3.95211
Orioles            8    7   .469   77.5   84.5   14.96959    7.94101   22.91060        1.27653  -0.33127
Rays               8    9   .508   82.7   79.3   29.13218   11.12677   40.25895       15.73388  -3.98669
Red Sox            7   10   .485   78.1   83.9   16.05585    8.33176   24.38761       -5.32437  -9.81609

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.0 86.4 80.8 75.2 67.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals             8    7   .498   81.7   80.3   22.31560   12.70032   35.01591        3.94927  -2.03245
Twins              8    8   .500   81.5   80.5   21.64597   12.70585   34.35181       -3.58778   7.26746
White Sox          8    9   .490   79.8   82.2   17.02565   11.27842   28.30407       -9.29562 -17.82802
Tigers             7    6   .490   80.5   81.5   20.21612   11.55028   31.76639       -2.28689  -5.36470
Indians            7    9   .496   80.4   81.6   18.79667   11.77593   30.57259       -2.66450   5.07930

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.5 89.4 82.6 75.6 65.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Athletics         11    5   .556   93.1   68.9   51.05275   23.50702   74.55977        3.03493  26.13131
Rangers           10    7   .496   81.3   80.7   12.41753   19.36629   31.78382        9.69686   3.36349
Angels             8    8   .508   82.1   79.9   13.62093   20.85774   34.47868        1.79293  -0.05257
Mariners           7    9   .533   85.7   76.3   21.21949   26.69207   47.91156       -0.30154 -10.31339
Astros             5   12   .450   69.3   92.7    1.68930    4.05313    5.74243       -1.24712  -5.24045

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.9 87.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.9 87.9 81.3 74.7 66.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            11    5   .550   91.3   70.7   50.11078   17.25195   67.36273        3.53308  21.94428
Nationals         10    7   .518   85.2   76.8   24.40111   19.52865   43.92976        3.11578  -5.17516
Mets               8    8   .465   74.7   87.3    5.77623    7.15045   12.92668       -4.29292  -3.95452
Phillies           7    9   .475   75.4   86.6    6.59162    7.76908   14.36070       -5.65907 -11.78963
Marlins            7   10   .510   80.2   81.8   13.12026   13.08183   26.20209        3.10769 -14.95266

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.8 89.5 83.1 76.3 66.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           12    5   .537   89.4   72.6   36.07427   23.25084   59.32511        2.80477  -6.89601
Cardinals         10    7   .540   88.2   73.8   30.71618   23.83009   54.54628       -0.52494  33.62609
Pirates            8    9   .504   80.3   81.7   10.79551   14.95806   25.75357       -4.54511 -10.93395
Reds               7    9   .534   84.4   77.6   19.70538   20.41872   40.12409        4.02442  22.99577
Cubs               4   11   .467   71.2   90.8    2.70867    4.74478    7.45344       -4.62288 -19.38423

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.2 86.2 80.0 73.5 63.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           10    7   .504   82.8   79.2   25.08013   11.93139   37.01152       -8.13942 -10.75491
Giants            10    7   .494   81.0   81.0   19.60742   10.81799   30.42541       -0.68169   4.41750
Rockies            9    9   .526   85.1   76.9   33.17566   12.77470   45.95036       10.49118   8.20435
Padres             8    9   .506   81.1   80.9   20.13147   10.86809   30.99956        1.37177  -0.37266
Diamondbacks       5   14   .443   67.4   94.6    2.00532    1.62340    3.62872         .01736  -6.97424

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.8 88.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.