Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Jul 24 07:36:08 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  88.6 84.8 81.7 78.8 73.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           55   45   .501   85.6   76.4   44.01280    9.42013   53.43293       -4.42382   4.66997
Blue Jays         53   49   .504   83.1   78.9   22.16041    8.81914   30.97955        4.70654  -6.48355
Yankees           52   48   .494   82.9   79.1   21.88989    8.25289   30.14278        1.95554   6.71647
Rays              49   53   .532   80.9   81.1   10.86550    5.30990   16.17540        3.31138   9.07681
Red Sox           47   54   .481   75.1   86.9    1.07140     .63539    1.70679       -0.76352    .25625

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.0 84.5 80.6 76.8 72.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            56   42   .538   90.3   71.7   80.24265    6.11441   86.35706        2.19331  -3.48283
Indians           51   50   .503   82.4   79.6   10.31138   12.49227   22.80365       -4.36980   6.88266
Royals            50   50   .501   81.6   80.4    7.91974    9.83599   17.75573        3.64739  -5.85692
White Sox         48   54   .476   76.2   85.8     .97778    1.24418    2.22197       -1.11900  -1.18627
Twins             46   54   .466   74.5   87.5     .54845     .48989    1.03834         .26186  -1.22662

Average wins by position in AL west:  101.1 94.8 84.6 70.7 63.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Athletics         62   38   .605   99.9   62.1   72.53352   27.27834   99.81185         .07650    .12488
Angels            60   40   .585   95.8   66.2   27.14242   71.29954   98.44196         .60089    .03725
Mariners          53   48   .528   84.7   77.3     .32407   38.76537   39.08944       -6.05303  -9.48736
Astros            42   59   .462   70.1   91.9     .00000     .04240     .04240       -0.02420  -0.03891
Rangers           40   61   .411   63.8   98.2     .00000     .00017     .00017       -0.00003  -0.00181

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  94.7 87.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.5 85.1 79.2 74.5 68.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         55   44   .548   90.5   71.5   75.75678   11.38994   87.14673       -3.11528   6.28711
Braves            55   46   .495   85.3   76.7   21.71993   25.31718   47.03711        4.67543  -7.37010
Mets              48   53   .488   78.1   83.9    1.90060    3.04223    4.94283        1.23842  -1.54575
Marlins           47   53   .464   75.6   86.4     .60792    1.09265    1.70057       -0.60349  -0.27926
Phillies          43   58   .435   69.1   92.9     .01477     .01448     .02925       -0.02063  -0.22009

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.3 87.7 84.5 80.5 70.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           57   45   .517   87.4   74.6   33.35035   30.23858   63.58892        6.09970  12.40195
Cardinals         54   47   .543   87.7   74.3   36.70928   29.96168   66.67096       -6.46376  -5.24022
Pirates           54   47   .529   86.2   75.8   22.87012   30.31706   53.18718        5.34136  16.54905
Reds              51   50   .515   82.5   79.5    7.05087   15.63304   22.68391       -5.26567 -31.04038
Cubs              41   58   .479   70.7   91.3     .01938     .09949     .11888       -0.10293  -0.41352

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.4 86.1 75.0 70.9 66.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            57   44   .515   88.9   73.1   51.86625   25.44750   77.31375        3.08278  18.03524
Dodgers           56   47   .540   88.5   73.5   48.03442   27.21817   75.25259       -4.89234  -7.01728
Padres            44   56   .438   71.4   90.6     .05333     .11970     .17304         .06290    .02204
Diamondbacks      44   58   .450   71.5   90.5     .03142     .08231     .11373       -0.05233    .02392
Rockies           41   60   .461   69.7   92.3     .01458     .02599     .04057         .01585  -0.19270

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  89.0 86.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.