Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Oct 6 07:51:55 EDT 2022
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.0 92.0 86.0 83.0 78.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 99 63 .645 99.0 63.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 92 70 .570 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00350 Rays 86 76 .536 86.0 76.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .23290 Orioles 83 79 .487 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.27570 Red Sox 78 84 .494 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.0 81.0 78.0 66.0 65.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 92 70 .536 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 81 81 .477 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 78 84 .503 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 66 96 .389 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 65 97 .397 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 106.0 90.0 73.0 68.0 60.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 106 56 .640 106.0 56.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 90 72 .530 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .03930 Angels 73 89 .497 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 68 94 .461 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 60 102 .366 60.0 102.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.0 90.0 90.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 101.0 101.0 87.0 69.0 55.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 101 61 .607 101.0 61.0 50.49240 49.50760 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 101 61 .591 101.0 61.0 49.50760 50.49240 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 87 75 .554 87.0 75.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 18.77820 50.03400 Marlins 69 93 .440 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 55 107 .385 55.0 107.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.0 86.0 74.0 62.0 62.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cardinals 93 69 .551 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 86 76 .528 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -18.77820 -53.13080 Cubs 74 88 .456 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 62 100 .374 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 62 100 .379 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 111.0 89.0 81.0 74.0 68.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 111 51 .684 111.0 51.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 89 73 .528 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 3.09680 Giants 81 81 .509 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 74 88 .471 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 68 94 .417 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 101.0 89.0 86.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
