Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Sep 24 07:52:18 EDT 2021
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.6 93.1 91.2 89.5 52.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 94 59 .571 98.6 63.4 99.67308 .32692 100.00000 .00000 .01280 Red Sox 88 65 .529 92.8 69.2 .31283 92.87137 93.18420 1.59298 28.84431 Yankees 86 67 .552 90.3 71.7 .01253 42.56398 42.57652 6.32916 -4.37736 Blue Jays 85 68 .596 90.7 71.3 .00155 58.53568 58.53723 -10.82038 -23.64553 Orioles 49 104 .394 52.7 109.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.5 80.3 78.1 74.3 71.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 86 67 .570 91.5 70.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00235 .02322 Indians 75 77 .473 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00235 -0.02247 Tigers 74 78 .439 78.3 83.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00088 Royals 69 83 .450 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 68 85 .459 72.3 89.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.2 88.5 85.9 77.7 59.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 91 62 .607 96.2 65.8 99.98195 .01035 99.99230 .00521 .34673 Mariners 84 69 .442 88.3 73.7 .01175 5.46847 5.48022 3.23920 4.83762 Athletics 82 71 .522 86.1 75.9 .00630 .22323 .22953 -0.34617 -6.01839 Angels 73 80 .460 77.7 84.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00003 Rangers 55 98 .395 59.2 102.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.1 91.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 86.4 83.5 77.8 69.2 67.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 80 71 .554 86.2 75.8 81.84318 .20296 82.04614 -7.93935 -1.52346 Phillies 79 74 .512 83.8 78.2 18.15378 .45332 18.60710 7.16194 -5.21411 Mets 73 79 .505 77.8 84.2 .00303 .00000 .00303 .00044 -1.40319 Marlins 64 88 .468 68.3 93.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 64 89 .496 68.3 93.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.3 88.6 82.8 71.4 61.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 91 62 .549 95.3 66.7 99.69680 .30320 100.00000 .00000 .00003 Cardinals 83 69 .513 88.6 73.4 .30320 98.63898 98.94218 2.43753 49.73126 Reds 78 75 .495 82.8 79.2 .00000 .36508 .36508 -1.65367 -26.69135 Cubs 67 85 .416 71.4 90.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 57 95 .377 61.1 100.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 105.4 103.7 81.0 75.8 51.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Giants 99 54 .626 105.0 57.0 68.35665 31.64335 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Dodgers 98 55 .647 104.1 57.9 31.64335 68.35665 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 77 75 .518 81.0 81.0 .00000 .03648 .03648 -0.00688 -14.89907 Rockies 71 81 .478 75.8 86.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 Diamondbacks 49 104 .386 51.9 110.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 103.7 88.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
