Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Jun 22 08:00:27 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  97.0 88.3 83.0 77.7 71.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           40   32   .505   83.7   78.3    6.71593   36.13796   42.85389       -4.71596  -5.62691
Yankees           39   30   .614   96.2   65.8   81.14724   15.15344   96.30068         .77028  -2.26427
Rays              39   36   .549   86.1   75.9   10.78923   48.82626   59.61549        5.82609   1.77919
Blue Jays         35   36   .487   77.8   84.2    1.13145   11.61500   12.74645        1.48041    .01267
Orioles           35   36   .443   73.9   88.1     .21614    4.07097    4.28711       -1.27706  -3.60836

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.2 82.9 78.3 74.4 69.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           38   32   .572   91.6   70.4   85.17301    5.03010   90.20310        1.39134  33.85049
Twins             36   33   .468   78.4   83.6    5.75325   10.26191   16.01516        3.00263 -12.83466
Royals            35   36   .472   77.7   84.3    4.71536    8.48006   13.19542        1.91262   2.77998
Tigers            32   39   .478   75.3   86.7    2.64161    4.07414    6.71575       -1.37011  -9.10126
White Sox         31   39   .477   74.3   87.7    1.71678    3.38153    5.09830       -2.20184  -3.19357

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.5 84.7 80.0 76.1 71.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            49   24   .611  103.5   58.5   99.13458     .67467   99.80925         .05773    .67349
Mariners          37   37   .494   79.5   82.5     .36939   17.71807   18.08746         .51003  -2.21068
Angels            37   38   .496   79.2   82.8     .25596   16.52432   16.78028       -1.85537  -4.74922
Rangers           35   36   .477   77.3   84.7     .14279   10.61318   10.75597       -2.13619   1.46205
Athletics         31   41   .498   76.1   85.9     .09728    7.43839    7.53567       -1.39462   3.03106

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.4 86.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.9 82.3 75.5 69.5 59.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         43   29   .543   93.4   68.6   90.00850    1.61756   91.62606       -0.49758   3.60338
Braves            33   38   .461   74.8   87.2    1.33043    1.04206    2.37250         .28992  -0.49567
Marlins           32   38   .511   80.9   81.1    8.31540    5.28010   13.59550        1.15190  -4.92399
Mets              31   40   .444   71.2   90.8     .34312     .24459     .58771       -0.10099  -2.17124
Phillies          22   48   .408   60.5  101.5     .00255     .00093     .00348       -0.00195  -0.02415

Average wins by position in NL Central:  87.7 82.9 79.2 75.2 69.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           39   35   .479   81.4   80.6   26.07787    1.68238   27.76025        3.34876  -2.38557
Cubs              36   35   .504   82.7   79.3   35.13124    1.80867   36.93991       -6.33207   6.02646
Cardinals         33   37   .512   81.5   80.5   27.65382    1.75571   29.40953        2.11580  -4.80147
Pirates           33   39   .467   76.0   86.0    7.79522     .47293    8.26815         .26125  -1.26341
Reds              30   41   .474   73.1   88.9    3.34185     .24557    3.58742       -0.45249  -1.52711

Average wins by position in NL West:  103.9 97.3 91.0 69.8 62.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           47   26   .602  101.9   60.1   65.10928   34.33165   99.44093         .08437   1.73898
Rockies           47   27   .525   93.7   68.3   11.25858   79.23646   90.49505       -2.07559   3.10154
Diamondbacks      45   27   .571   96.6   65.4   23.63198   72.21127   95.84325        2.19234   3.31715
Padres            29   44   .433   67.6   94.4     .00015     .05963     .05978         .02178  -0.11837
Giants            27   47   .424   64.3   97.7     .00000     .01050     .01050       -0.00543  -0.07655

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  97.3 91.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.