Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon May 21 08:01:47 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 105.0 95.6 82.9 72.0 60.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 32 15 .573 97.7 64.3 32.01868 56.46394 88.48262 .90157 .07746 Yankees 30 13 .607 102.3 58.7 66.50630 29.52510 96.03140 1.80770 .98582 Rays 22 23 .518 82.2 79.8 1.42253 15.87488 17.29741 -5.49652 5.87206 Blue Jays 22 25 .450 72.1 89.9 .05203 1.43585 1.48789 -0.79646 -3.72090 Orioles 14 32 .423 61.8 100.2 .00045 .03954 .03999 -0.02622 -0.16906
Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.7 79.5 72.8 66.0 58.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 22 23 .518 84.9 77.1 62.80773 1.15349 63.96121 -4.53598 4.52210 Tigers 20 26 .457 73.6 88.4 9.88995 .59205 10.48200 -0.84035 -2.59865 Twins 19 23 .475 78.4 83.6 24.88842 1.36633 26.25475 4.68116 -5.87456 Royals 14 32 .412 62.4 99.6 .66981 .01497 .68478 -0.33442 -0.67495 White Sox 13 30 .432 65.1 96.9 1.74410 .04158 1.78568 .33901 .05393
Average wins by position in AL west: 102.2 91.8 85.7 79.2 65.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 30 18 .621 101.0 61.0 79.90038 13.89225 93.79263 1.17269 2.21452 Mariners 27 19 .503 84.0 78.0 4.56511 20.18228 24.74739 -2.45705 .90059 Angels 26 21 .535 87.5 74.5 9.07788 32.60801 41.68589 2.33996 -18.16841 Athletics 25 22 .526 85.9 76.1 6.44493 26.60086 33.04579 3.42102 17.24401 Rangers 18 30 .428 66.0 96.0 .01172 .20886 .22057 -0.17610 -0.66395 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 97.2 91.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.4 90.5 84.6 77.1 64.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 28 17 .558 93.4 68.6 49.44248 26.50692 75.94939 -2.02402 1.35403 Phillies 26 18 .529 88.4 73.6 22.98183 28.89880 51.88062 -5.68060 -4.54583 Nationals 24 21 .551 88.0 73.0 23.69850 28.90560 52.60410 -7.26890 -24.26026 Mets 23 19 .478 79.0 83.0 3.82811 9.13366 12.96177 2.67908 4.09863 Marlins 17 29 .424 64.9 97.1 .04909 .16504 .21413 .08423 .08554
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.6 90.1 84.9 78.9 65.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 28 19 .513 87.2 74.8 20.96412 24.74993 45.71405 -2.08915 18.10660 Pirates 26 20 .516 85.4 76.6 16.16587 20.33888 36.50474 -0.40088 -8.23361 Cardinals 25 19 .512 85.5 76.5 16.33475 20.83822 37.17297 7.61271 6.17795 Cubs 25 19 .562 92.0 70.0 46.47342 23.44089 69.91431 7.01630 17.69149 Reds 16 32 .439 65.6 96.4 .06185 .18093 .24278 -0.13405 -1.53637
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.5 83.9 79.1 74.2 67.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 25 21 .525 86.4 75.6 50.00650 5.09508 55.10157 -4.82309 -21.46931 Rockies 25 22 .477 79.9 82.1 18.24718 3.77039 22.01757 -2.93236 -0.43098 Giants 24 24 .496 80.7 81.3 19.67898 4.54485 24.22382 3.34536 4.32536 Dodgers 20 26 .495 77.2 84.8 9.80128 2.94109 12.74237 4.17525 7.08207 Padres 20 28 .449 70.8 91.2 2.26607 .48975 2.75582 .44012 1.55471 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.1 89.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
