Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun May 10 07:52:08 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 101.3 91.4 81.4 74.0 66.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 26 14 .594 99.1 62.9 69.83560 28.17920 98.01480 -0.22180 1.30480 Rays 25 13 .539 92.2 69.8 26.99650 61.91820 88.91470 -0.10329 7.93011 Blue Jays 18 21 .497 79.0 83.0 2.38460 33.17510 35.55970 7.24430 2.24090 Red Sox 17 22 .470 74.2 87.8 .63970 15.66720 16.30690 -0.97500 6.99950 Orioles 17 23 .436 69.5 92.5 .14360 5.91050 6.05410 -1.08540 -2.79030
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.2 83.2 78.6 74.0 67.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 21 20 .499 82.8 79.2 36.10450 19.09840 55.20290 -3.07900 -8.81490 Royals 19 21 .496 80.1 81.9 22.30880 19.08450 41.39330 2.95200 14.52960 White Sox 18 21 .475 76.6 85.4 13.00190 12.97460 25.97650 5.21610 4.38910 Tigers 18 22 .503 80.0 82.0 22.54570 18.09390 40.63960 -5.41990 -20.63460 Twins 17 23 .461 73.0 89.0 6.03910 7.72150 13.76060 .24710 -2.27470
Average wins by position in AL west: 89.5 83.3 78.5 73.5 67.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 21 18 .479 80.9 81.1 25.23390 20.34710 45.58100 6.63180 8.27310 Mariners 19 21 .496 80.2 81.8 22.22160 19.74030 41.96190 -8.47230 1.09910 Rangers 18 21 .521 83.7 78.3 38.86360 20.77020 59.63380 7.60630 4.56040 Astros 16 24 .458 72.1 89.9 4.68790 6.65110 11.33900 -3.55700 -0.24180 Angels 15 25 .487 74.9 87.1 8.99300 10.66820 19.66120 -6.98390 -16.57030 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.2 86.2 85.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 98.9 85.8 79.3 73.4 66.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 27 13 .581 98.3 63.7 87.48090 7.81250 95.29340 1.75820 1.71130 Nationals 19 21 .490 79.3 82.7 4.24630 19.78090 24.02720 -4.88700 9.66970 Marlins 18 22 .524 81.3 80.7 6.51930 26.05480 32.57410 2.18340 -27.87300 Phillies 18 22 .466 74.1 87.9 1.15440 8.08460 9.23900 1.49250 3.71350 Mets 15 24 .462 70.7 91.3 .59910 3.65840 4.25750 -2.38640 .34950
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.9 92.3 86.7 80.8 71.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 27 13 .575 96.6 65.4 57.99230 34.21750 92.20980 -1.88840 5.86120 Cardinals 23 16 .507 84.7 77.3 8.58480 40.28570 48.87050 -4.56530 2.41580 Pirates 22 18 .547 87.9 74.1 14.74020 49.81830 64.55850 7.20240 5.64610 Brewers 21 16 .545 88.7 73.3 18.26150 49.61330 67.87480 2.70750 13.35290 Reds 21 19 .439 72.9 89.1 .42120 6.94470 7.36590 -0.25070 -8.81580
Average wins by position in NL West: 99.9 84.8 77.6 71.2 63.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 24 15 .606 99.5 62.5 91.20820 5.55830 96.76650 -0.58820 4.39190 Padres 23 16 .477 80.7 81.3 4.96030 24.79480 29.75510 -0.84430 -4.00050 Diamondbacks 18 20 .486 78.4 83.6 3.24240 17.88940 21.13180 3.28300 -0.70480 Rockies 16 24 .453 70.8 91.2 .41570 3.82260 4.23830 -1.97500 -3.29690 Giants 15 24 .434 67.6 94.4 .17340 1.66420 1.83760 -1.24170 -2.42090 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.5 89.3 86.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
