Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Apr 10 07:52:07 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.6 86.6 80.1 73.8 65.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 8 4 .539 89.7 72.3 47.88770 25.05880 72.94650 -3.31260 18.85930 Orioles 6 6 .485 78.9 83.1 13.72170 22.06620 35.78790 1.48590 -2.53080 Blue Jays 5 7 .470 75.3 86.7 8.62180 16.43810 25.05990 1.66040 -15.72910 Rays 5 7 .509 82.0 80.0 20.52840 26.21620 46.74460 .90700 7.76360 Red Sox 4 8 .479 75.9 86.1 9.24040 17.25610 26.49650 -0.94900 -4.46810
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.4 85.0 78.8 72.7 64.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 8 5 .519 86.6 75.4 43.92310 20.47530 64.39840 .10360 21.91910 Twins 7 6 .484 79.5 82.5 18.98280 19.49250 38.47530 3.84020 1.44550 Royals 5 8 .488 78.6 83.4 16.63040 18.67110 35.30150 -4.09350 -7.19050 White Sox 5 8 .454 72.9 89.1 7.65640 10.93340 18.58980 .13160 -14.98880 Tigers 4 9 .483 76.7 85.3 12.80730 16.29160 29.09890 -2.61080 -4.68930
Average wins by position in AL west: 94.0 86.3 80.4 74.6 66.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 7 5 .509 83.8 78.2 29.09210 24.22760 53.31970 -1.65530 8.21090 Angels 6 7 .500 80.9 81.1 20.23980 22.65960 42.89940 -0.32410 -0.86710 Astros 6 7 .478 77.3 84.7 12.16310 17.75980 29.92290 1.33740 -13.20990 Athletics 5 7 .481 77.7 84.3 13.82690 18.36230 32.18920 5.00770 -1.54410 Mariners 4 9 .521 82.5 79.5 24.67810 24.09140 48.76950 -1.52850 7.01930 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.1 87.0 86.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.2 88.9 82.6 76.2 67.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 8 5 .546 89.2 72.8 38.15660 26.43640 64.59300 2.70090 13.50020 Marlins 8 5 .532 86.4 75.6 27.91530 26.93980 54.85510 3.41840 8.78680 Mets 7 6 .512 82.5 79.5 16.99110 22.96300 39.95410 -4.12910 5.09210 Phillies 6 6 .485 77.9 84.1 9.10330 16.29700 25.40030 .26810 -12.42360 Nationals 4 8 .491 76.9 85.1 7.83370 14.73530 22.56900 -0.08350 -18.81800
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.3 87.6 81.7 75.9 68.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 8 4 .502 82.8 79.2 22.59570 19.71900 42.31470 1.53600 -2.42840 Reds 8 5 .496 81.6 80.4 18.90440 19.27230 38.17670 -3.43830 4.40120 Cardinals 7 5 .473 77.5 84.5 11.12910 13.70930 24.83840 -0.92790 -15.76400 Pirates 7 5 .511 83.5 78.5 24.32450 20.40450 44.72900 -1.72940 5.25060 Cubs 6 6 .513 83.0 79.0 23.04630 20.07030 43.11660 .48090 2.52230
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.4 88.5 81.9 75.4 67.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 9 3 .548 91.2 70.8 47.06600 24.02560 71.09160 .63760 29.55670 Diamondbacks 7 6 .531 86.0 76.0 26.37120 27.06070 53.43190 4.49720 19.12430 Padres 7 6 .481 77.6 84.4 8.48370 16.11800 24.60170 .96220 -6.83720 Rockies 6 7 .496 79.3 82.7 11.10650 18.41250 29.51900 -1.64500 -11.76790 Giants 5 8 .485 76.3 85.7 6.97260 13.83630 20.80890 -2.54810 -20.19510 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.4 89.3 86.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
