Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Oct 4 07:59:35 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 89.0 89.0 84.0 68.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           93   69   .623   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Blue Jays         89   73   .568   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   8.74496
Orioles           89   73   .521   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  32.76447
Yankees           84   78   .505   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.10013
Rays              68   94   .503   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.0 86.0 81.0 78.0 59.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           94   67   .564   94.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            86   75   .525   86.0   75.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -16.33481
Royals            81   81   .458   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00069
White Sox         78   84   .475   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             59  103   .430   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.0 86.0 84.0 74.0 69.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           95   67   .490   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mariners          86   76   .512   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -23.32874
Astros            84   78   .497   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -1.74507
Angels            74   88   .448   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         69   93   .441   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.0 89.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.0 87.0 79.0 71.0 68.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         95   67   .586   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              87   75   .513   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  19.85553
Marlins           79   82   .483   79.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.04570
Phillies          71   91   .401   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            68   93   .446   68.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.0 86.0 78.0 73.0 68.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs             103   58   .645  103.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Cardinals         86   76   .550   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -52.47250
Pirates           78   83   .452   78.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01160
Brewers           73   89   .473   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              68   94   .419   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.0 87.0 75.0 69.0 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           91   71   .558   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            87   75   .548   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  32.67427
Rockies           75   87   .491   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      69   93   .451   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            68   94   .426   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  87.0 87.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.