Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Jul 7 07:52:14 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.0 90.4 86.7 82.1 69.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 52 38 .520 88.9 73.1 21.33540 57.98370 79.31910 .57390 22.05740 Rays 49 41 .549 88.1 73.9 17.27560 56.96200 74.23760 2.81620 -14.65510 Yankees 49 41 .611 92.9 69.1 56.66520 37.38890 94.05410 1.19970 -4.67720 Red Sox 46 45 .545 84.2 77.8 4.71950 38.66880 43.38830 .52460 11.77030 Orioles 40 49 .418 69.7 92.3 .00430 .22720 .23150 .04510 -0.06110
Average wins by position in AL Central: 97.3 82.0 77.2 71.8 58.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 57 34 .561 97.3 64.7 98.69620 .80510 99.50130 .12240 .02480 Twins 43 47 .487 78.7 83.3 .66520 10.18810 10.85330 -3.07800 -6.52640 Royals 43 48 .491 78.8 83.2 .59130 9.97820 10.56950 2.33120 -5.34990 Guardians 40 48 .436 73.4 88.6 .04730 1.45340 1.50070 -0.61750 -5.16590 White Sox 30 60 .393 58.1 103.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00040
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.2 87.2 81.2 73.8 65.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 55 35 .555 95.8 66.2 87.48160 10.61290 98.09450 .92329 2.18790 Mariners 48 42 .528 86.4 75.6 10.35430 51.46190 61.81620 3.11150 13.56960 Rangers 44 46 .521 81.7 80.3 2.08580 22.39090 24.47670 -7.28930 -11.42140 Angels 43 46 .427 74.1 87.9 .07790 1.86160 1.93950 -0.65110 -1.74380 Athletics 37 55 .415 65.9 96.1 .00040 .01730 .01770 -0.01200 -0.00880 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.2 88.3 88.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.8 89.0 77.2 71.8 65.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 53 37 .543 92.1 69.9 55.13640 34.32480 89.46120 3.60110 12.66779 Mets 52 39 .556 91.6 70.4 44.68020 42.44190 87.12210 -2.45710 6.25010 Marlins 40 48 .452 72.9 89.1 .04860 .58110 .62970 -0.38490 .02470 Braves 39 50 .499 75.0 87.0 .13350 1.36780 1.50130 -0.80190 -6.16870 Nationals 37 53 .423 66.7 95.3 .00130 .01080 .01210 -0.00800 -0.02310
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.2 89.1 84.7 80.4 73.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 54 36 .593 96.8 65.2 86.32510 11.79280 98.11790 .91180 5.47449 Brewers 50 40 .524 86.9 75.1 8.15920 48.41980 56.57900 7.00910 9.24420 Cardinals 48 43 .520 85.1 76.9 4.14220 38.01470 42.15690 -6.95470 -19.76650 Reds 46 44 .505 82.0 80.0 1.35380 18.63950 19.99330 -4.50150 -8.16440 Pirates 38 53 .501 74.1 87.9 .01970 .87680 .89650 -0.41640 -0.28920
Average wins by position in NL West: 95.1 88.5 84.1 79.1 46.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 56 35 .538 94.3 67.7 78.51320 16.22830 94.74150 -1.42610 -1.41350 Giants 49 42 .501 84.4 77.6 6.91760 29.82190 36.73950 4.10020 4.64020 Padres 48 41 .518 86.7 75.3 12.67980 42.33920 55.01900 6.94330 1.63780 Diamondbacks 44 46 .517 81.4 80.6 1.88940 15.14060 17.03000 -5.61490 -4.11390 Rockies 21 69 .352 46.0 116.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.0 89.1 86.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
