Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun May 28 08:00:21 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.0 90.4 84.6 78.6 71.2
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           28   18   .599   97.0   65.0   69.86354   21.90901   91.77255       -0.00694   1.59171
Red Sox           27   21   .539   86.4   75.6   13.56090   38.26593   51.82683        5.76369  28.28832
Rays              26   26   .564   87.0   75.0   13.33356   42.18694   55.52050       -4.63403  -3.98550
Orioles           25   22   .486   78.9   83.1    2.50835   14.47054   16.97888       -2.33367 -17.14529
Blue Jays         23   26   .475   74.4   87.6     .73366    5.45250    6.18616         .57634   2.38550

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.0 84.6 79.7 74.9 68.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             26   19   .511   85.3   76.7   39.06159   11.76009   50.82168        6.52878  17.44089
Indians           24   23   .531   85.1   76.9   38.37162   11.76398   50.13560       -5.30890 -12.89258
Tigers            23   26   .476   76.6   85.4    7.94822    4.70415   12.65237        1.39722  -9.29777
White Sox         22   26   .496   78.0   84.0   10.40852    6.34123   16.74975       -3.74549  -0.59805
Royals            21   27   .466   73.7   88.3    4.21005    2.61176    6.82181         .97703   2.40240

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.9 84.8 79.0 73.9 67.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            34   16   .563   97.3   64.7   89.15443    5.27804   94.43247        1.17932   3.11670
Angels            26   26   .485   78.8   83.2    3.48722   12.06448   15.55169        1.75243   3.40089
Rangers           24   26   .462   75.0   87.0    1.59139    5.40374    6.99513       -1.74361  -7.65446
Athletics         22   26   .510   79.9   82.1    5.16274   15.23018   20.39292         .57743  -0.63576
Mariners          21   29   .460   72.0   90.0     .60422    2.55744    3.16165       -0.97963  -6.41702

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.6 87.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.7 80.3 74.5 69.7 63.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         30   18   .536   93.2   68.8   90.00858    1.32313   91.33170        2.74963  12.49319
Braves            21   26   .459   74.7   87.3    4.25778    2.85366    7.11144       -1.52774  -7.27262
Mets              20   27   .442   70.8   91.2    1.62688     .98861    2.61549       -0.60161  -3.70423
Marlins           17   30   .468   72.2   89.8    2.63121    1.46733    4.09854       -1.24584  -2.74539
Phillies          17   30   .454   70.9   91.1    1.47555    1.09113    2.56668         .15578  -7.07796

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.7 85.5 81.0 76.5 70.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           26   23   .479   79.9   82.1   12.83305    6.20724   19.04030        2.46088 -16.41133
Cubs              25   23   .506   83.6   78.4   26.08853    9.31619   35.40471       -4.71974  -1.24249
Cardinals         24   22   .531   86.8   75.2   43.69695    9.19006   52.88702        8.22003   3.20097
Reds              23   25   .499   79.6   82.4   12.49387    5.85913   18.35300       -2.66545  -5.11133
Pirates           23   27   .462   75.2   86.8    4.88760    2.45881    7.34641         .29391  -0.55837

Average wins by position in NL West:  100.9 94.4 87.9 72.1 62.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rockies           32   19   .544   93.7   68.3   29.49624   54.89940   84.39564       -2.97003  17.77125
Diamondbacks      31   20   .563   93.7   68.3   29.88233   54.07398   83.95631       -2.90081   2.65392
Dodgers           30   20   .577   95.6   66.4   40.56906   48.96220   89.53126        2.60936  10.80311
Giants            21   30   .441   70.3   91.7     .04862    1.16508    1.21370         .21422  -2.59020
Padres            18   33   .418   64.1   97.9     .00376     .14405     .14781       -0.07259  -0.20852

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.6 89.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.